| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 23 2010 01:53 PM |
Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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The tropical discussion this morning hints at at progressing situtation in the EGOM. A surface low has been located about 80NM wnw of Clearwater. Radar images show the circulation and, interesting lines of thunderstorms SE of the low. The existence of these lines is consistent with some organization and show that the environment is conducive to development. Surface pressures are low along the coast ( I meausred a 29.85 this morning in Ft. Myers).
The language used in the discussion raises suspicions for this area.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 23 2010 02:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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Last week a number of the non tropical models were forecasting a Low to develop in the NE GOM.
Reading the morning AFDs around my area they are sticking with the development of a Low and vary greatly with how developed it will become. Jackson,MS NWS is forecasting it to move inland Thursday.
Slidell,LA NWS has no mention of the system. And Mobile,AL's excerpt follows:
ECMWF HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING IN DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS
NOW ADVERTISING A LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA EARLY THURSDAY
AND MOVES INTO THE SABINE PASS REGION LATE FRIDAY.
It appears that yet another round of thunderstorms are forecast to help clean up the GOM Oil Spill areas.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 23 2010 03:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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I'm seeing some hint of rotation on the long range radar loop from TPA this morning just off the coast of Pinellas County. There is some NNE to SSW shear over the area and really little evidence of much organization on the Gulf Vis Sat loop. It has resulted in about 1.75" of rain in my gauge since last evening, though.
| mwillis |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 24 2010 07:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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I am still not seeing any northward direction as of this post. looking at sat. imagery it appears she is still moving west keeping right above the 15 long line. It is quite surpriseing to see her act this way as if she is defying the models. I call it stubborn. Anyway not sure how long this westward motion will last but she is about to pass south of the 24/1200z plot .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 24 2010 01:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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I continue to monitor the NE GOM, and notice the area of showers and TStorms has persisted and become concentrated. It continues to present a radar signature which is consistent with a cyclonic turn.
The synoptic discription is this area is at the base of a surface trough across the region and the precipitation is enhanced by difluent flow. It is not showing signs of moving or dissipating, however, and to me remains an area of suspicion, especially given the models which predict development in the GOM in the next 100 hours.
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 24 2010 08:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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The area in the gulf is definitely something that needs to be watched. The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, NGP, and CMC are all developing a system off the Texas coast, making landfall anywhere from deep south Texas to the TX/LA border somewhere between Friday and Sunday of this week.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 24 2010 11:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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I've looked at the 23/12Z package and in the here and now there is no activity in the GOM that is tropical. The global models have performed exceptional in regards to this solution for the past several days. A reinforcing "dry" cold front is expected in the Southeast which will clear the SE except FL.
Last week all the discussions were hinting at the possibility of something developing along the shear axis of the developing pattern that is now underway with a cutoff low off DELMARVA and a shear axis between the Mid-Continental Ridge which is currently retrograding to the SW US and the Bermuda ridge once again establishing itself to the east with a trough dividing them deep into the GOM.
Currently at 500 millibars the long wave trough inverts and is located as far west as the Central GOM. Models take this inverted trough almost to the TX coast in H+48 hours and at H+60 hours splits the system as the cutoff low along DELMARVA opens up and a trough extends itself well into the Deep South. Models have a surface low off the coast of LA and is picked up by the departing long wave trough as a ridge re-builds over the Eastern US.
As aggravating as this sounds, it's not clear given the evolving upper air pattern if this will begin as a tropical system or ever be one.
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 12:04 AM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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don't look now, but NHC has the code yellow up for an area in the GOM. Should still be a day or two away from any development coming from this though.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 12:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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The latest NAM run develops this feature into a tropical cyclone in the next 36-48 hours. Development of this disturbance is possible especially given the low shear and warm temps. There also does not appear to be any upper-level lows in the region to disrupt any organization.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 02:26 AM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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I am not sure what is going on in the Gulf, but right now here in West Central Florida we are getting deluged. I had 5.5 inches in a huge storm Sunday, another half inch yesterday, and it rained most of today leaving another 0.6 in the gauge. Almost 7 inches. Flood watches and warnings for many rivers and a coastal flood advisory for several counties north of here up into the Big Bend area.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 01:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010
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The interest I had has now faded. I picked up on the mention of a weak surface low 80NM off the west coast of Florida on Monday. That low is now not a factor, and is not the same low mentioned in the TWO today. Berrywr's discussion of the synoptic causes of the interesting weather we have experienced here over the last two days is accurate and that puts it all into perspective. Thanks.