Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 02:39 PM |
Earl Forecast Lounge and Weather Reports
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UPDATE: TD7 upgraded to Tropical Storm Earl at 25/21Z.
This morning Invest 96L in the far eastern Atlantic located at 14.3N 30.8W at 25/15Z was upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven with winds of 30kts and pressure at 1007MB. Long range models currently move the system west to west northwest at 15-20 knots and intensify it to hurricane strength by Saturday (perhaps earlier).
This lounge is for making your best guess at what this system may do, either using the models or any other method.
ED
| Jasonch |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 05:15 PM |
Re: TD7 Forecast Lounge
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i think it is possible this storm may stay south and not recurve
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 09:00 PM |
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TS Earl
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Is it still expected to go north before it impacts land? (I'm hopeless figuring this sort of thing out by myself)
(Post moved to appropriate Forum. TS Earl is a long way - at least 5 days - from any potential landfall.)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 09:55 PM |
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Re: TS Earl
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Yes odds currently favor it heading north and out to sea before land, but it isn't quite the same guarantee as Danielle was. The eastern Caribbean islands are currently in the cone. In short, watch the trends of the forecast and models. The next round of GFS (18z) is coming soon.
| IMTechspec |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 26 2010 12:30 AM |
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Re: TS Earl
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I am a little surprised that the 18z GFS is as bullish as it is for Earl's development in the next day or two.
The upper level wind field ahead of Earl is not a storm killer, but I would not call it Friendly Skies either.
If the GFS wind forecast holds true for the next 24 - 36, it will be interesting to see how much stronger this storm gets in the near term. I am not predicting that it will not make it through, but I suspect that development will be hampered.
Looking at wind forecast data here:
Navy FNMOC
**WAIT** Nevermind, that was the NOGAPS model that I clicked on. GFS does not look as bad.
Too many irons in the fire.....
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Aug 26 2010 04:13 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Lounge
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For those that asked about the model output differences from the GFDL, the answer is in the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum.
Cheers,
ED
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 27 2010 04:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Lounge
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The 12Z GFS puts Earl very close to the islands, close enough to feel some tropical storm force winds. But not a direct impact, probably enough that if the trend continues watches/warnings will go up there.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Sep 03 2010 02:24 AM |
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Re: Earl Forecast Lounge and Weather Reports
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I think that we've all got a pretty good handle on where Earl is heading so I'll open up this thread for Weather Reports. If you are in an area that is going to have some impacts from Earl, use this thread to report your weather conditions.
At 10PM EDT, Diamond Shoals, N.C., had winds from 030 degrees at 45 gusting to 56 knots.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Sep 03 2010 10:08 PM |
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Re: Earl Forecast Lounge and Weather Reports
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Here are a few additional wind reports from North Carolina:
6AM, Cape Hatteras: Wind northwest at 30mph gusting to 62mph
7AM, Diamond Shoals: Wind northwest at 49knots gusting to 60knots
8AM, Manteo: Wind north at 44mph gusting to 70mph
ED