MikeC
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(Admin)
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Fri Aug 27 2010 09:45 PM
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Fiona Forecast Lounge
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I'm opening up on the 97L forecast lounge, which I think has the best shot of possibly affecting the US overall.
The latest long range euro actually forecasts a 908mb low near the Bahamas on Sept. 5, which comes from this system, implying the pattern may be able to push the system more westward than the others. The path may be similar to TD#6 from 2004. But the end still has a chance to recurve. Of all the systems out there right now, this one concerns me the most.
Euro:
Thankfully we have another week or so to watch it.
This lounge is to discuss 97L, what may eventually be TD#8 and Fiona.
This lounge is for making your best guess at what this system may do, either using the models or any other method.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Aug 28 2010 08:39 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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Again, 97L remains the most likely system to impact of all that are in the Atlantic right now, the Euro is indicating a potential impact just after labor day weekend. It's my personal pick for one to watch over the next week or so.
Euro Run
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Owlguin
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Aug 28 2010 09:31 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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Been watching this model and it seems to consistantly bring this to a hurricane off the east coast. It's also performed pretty well on the other storms. Not good.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sun Aug 29 2010 11:44 AM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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The Euro this morning takes 97L (Fiona) into East Central Florida around Brevard to Ft. Pierce as a category 5 hurricane.:
Link
Another Link
Likely fantasy at this point, but the trends are not good so far.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Aug 29 2010 01:01 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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Model has consistently been moving farther south over the past few days. The current one has a trajectory directly across the state, ala Andrew but a tad farther north.
I agree this is one to definitely watch as the blocking high pressure system along the east coast has been breakind down for a few days. The current alignment is more in sync with the pre season prognosis for this year concerning the likelihood of east coast storms.
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richisurfs
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Aug 29 2010 01:36 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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Six computer models on Weatherunderground, run at 2am, do not have that scenario...it's too early to make a call on anything like that based on one model
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sun Aug 29 2010 02:07 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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It's not just based on the model, but the pattern in this case. The trends have been markedly toward the west, and the setup with Earl and Danielle looks to be strengthening the ridge. In historical context, the Euro model has handled this better than most. This is where that is coming from. Do expect what the link shows to verify? No, but I do know the trends are leaning that direction.
Lounge is for this type of discussion. Odds right now are about 50/50 on recurve. We have a week to watch this one, but I know the impact of this model is right after labor day, which may cause a few people to balk on plans. But don't until this has formed, and the trend persists. It is also possibly that this may move even further west/south and rake the islands too.
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VolusiaMike
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sun Aug 29 2010 02:43 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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It appears that 97L is currently lower than Earl was, but difficult to tell how far lower (without some more research which I am not up to this morning). Interesting, even TWC made mention of it's possible future track this morning....
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sun Aug 29 2010 02:56 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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It is lower - by about two degrees of latitude. The 12Z ECMWF run yesterday put the system into the Georgia/South Carolina border area so the track trend has been southward. Eight days is a long way off.
ED
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KikiFla
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(Registered User)
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Sun Aug 29 2010 07:22 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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The ECMWF continues to go further south.. the 12z run now has 97 L going through Cuba and into the Gulf. Why is it doing that? Is the ridge predicted to get that strong? Hasn't this been a consistent model?
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sun Aug 29 2010 10:03 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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One model out of several others that show a weak system following Earl's path. 97L seems to be struggling with a dry air environment today which will continue to inhibit its development in the short term. Until there is a definite center to initialize the models on, I wouldn't put too much trust in them.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Mon Aug 30 2010 11:04 AM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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There is some good news with 97L, as chances for it developing are dropping, and the European model now takes it out to sea this morning. Still it has a 90% chance for development.
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Jasonch
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(Weather Watcher)
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Mon Aug 30 2010 11:09 AM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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this is the first I have heard of this. Everybody still is calling for 97L to develope. What has changed?
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Mon Aug 30 2010 12:33 PM
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Re: 97L Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
this is the first I have heard of this. Everybody still is calling for 97L to develope. What has changed?
The GFS wasn't developing the system, but the overall chances are still pretty high. The good news (if you can call it that) is that the Euro was more out to sea with it, but on the other hand it just means the models are all over the place, and with it staying weaker (so far) also could up the chances of a westward motion.
Most models are sending it out to sea this morning, but the weaker system implies they all may be wrong. Odds favor the out to sea scenario, but with a lot of questions.
It's a mixed message right now, in other words.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Mon Aug 30 2010 09:15 PM
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Re: Fiona Forecast Lounge
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Invest 97L went straight to TS Fiona with 35 knot sustained winds. Lots of potential scenarios with this one but the GFS has been consistent with a weak system (or not much of a system at all) that stays well out to sea in the wake of Hurricane Earl (actually more to the east southeast of Earl). For now that seems like a reasonable scenario.
ED
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Tue Aug 31 2010 09:27 AM
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Re: Fiona Forecast Lounge
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Any worries I had earlier in the week are gone now, Fiona looks destined to be out to sea, and may even fall apart before that.
98L behind it probably won't develop anytime soon.
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Wingman51
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(Weather Guru)
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Wed Sep 01 2010 02:13 AM
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Re: Fiona Forecast Lounge
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Mike, won't the apparent training of
Earl draw the dominant steering elements to him and leave a different environment for Fiona (sorry too many cancer meds to type straight.)
(edited~danielw: I hope I got this right)
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Sep 01 2010 01:24 PM
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Re: Fiona Forecast Lounge
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Fiona has strengthened this AM as Earl pulls away. Still looks like it will generally follow in Earl's wake though.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Wed Sep 01 2010 02:39 PM
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Re: Fiona Forecast Lounge
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It seems as though the outflow between Earl and Fiona has generated some higher pressure with the anticyclonic rotation. This is what could be slowing Fiona and allowing it to strengthen. I'm not quite ready to write this one off. Models has very little experience handling these type of interactions.
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Re: Fiona Forecast Lounge
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I just noticed that more than one of the BAM models is beginning to call for Fiona slipping UNDER Earl and heading back to the west. I am not a huge fan of these particular models, but could they really be onto something? I haven't noticed the cone widening much on Fiona in the NHC forcast? Should it be?
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Sep 02 2010 02:31 PM
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Re: Fiona Forecast Lounge
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I am wondering if the strength of the ridge buiding in behind Earl has been correctly measured in the forecast trac for Fiona? It seems to be generating a general push toward the wnw at the latitide Fiona is now at. Fiona seems to be just above that push and so she may well get pulled into the breach being created by Earl. But the trough exiting the east coast has no real southern component to it, and what I see is the ridge will push in quickly behind Earl to fill the void and Fiona could get a push to the west. Obviously a couple of outliers see that too.
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