Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Wed Sep 01 2010 10:42 AM
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Gaston Forecast Lounge
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UPDATE at 02/21Z: System degenerated into a remnant tropical low.
UPDATE: TD9 upgraded to Tropical Storm Gaston at 01/21Z.
This morning Invest 98L in the east central Atlantic located about 1,700 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands at 01/15Z was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine with winds of 30kts and pressure at 1006MB. Long range models currently move the system west to west northwest at 15-20 knots and eventually intensify it to hurricane strength by Monday (perhaps earlier).
This lounge is for making your best guess at what this system may do, either using the models or any other method.
ED
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Wingman51
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(Weather Guru)
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Wed Sep 01 2010 10:57 AM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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Initial Floater images this morning show "Gaston" really beginning to get his act together. Also have noted that "He" is a little lower during his formulation period. Will this allow him to stay south and continue West with less influence from the High that is steering Earl and Fiona?
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Thu Sep 02 2010 11:45 PM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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Gaston is toast according to NHC, no further advisories at this time.
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vaughn
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(Registered User)
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Fri Sep 03 2010 09:26 AM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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Can someone explain what happened to Gaston? Just yesterday some models had it reving up to Cat 2, yet today the picture suddenly looks very different.
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vonkamp
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(Registered User)
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Fri Sep 03 2010 09:34 AM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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If it were to re-generate, would it still be called Gaston?
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StormHound
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(Weather Guru)
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Fri Sep 03 2010 09:50 AM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
If it were to re-generate, would it still be called Gaston?
Mostly likely. It is a judgement call on the part of the NHC as to whether it is the same system.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Fri Sep 03 2010 10:05 AM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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Normally, yes - as long as the original system can be tracked as a separate entity - but there have been exceptions in the past few years where what appeared to be the same system was given a new name. In this case though, I'd suspect that the name Gaston would be retained if the system intensifies.
ED
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Jasonch
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(Weather Watcher)
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Fri Sep 03 2010 10:13 AM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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I believe Gaston's problem was alot of dry air more so than shear. I do believe the farther west he gets he may have a chance to regenerate and could still reach hurricane strenght sometime next week. As of 5am this morning the NHC had it at 10% chance of developement and at 8am it was up to 40%. So he may already be starting to get in a more favorable enviorment. We shall see.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Sep 03 2010 07:55 PM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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It looks like Gaston has generated a big blob of convection near the center. I think it will be reclassified soon
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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If Gaston reforms, and is reclassified, are any of the models showing a possible threat to Florida in the long term?
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vaughn
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(Registered User)
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Sat Sep 04 2010 07:57 PM
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Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge
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The SFWMD page currently shows most of the models tracking south of Florida. SFWMD Gaston
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sun Sep 05 2010 02:37 PM
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Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge
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At 18Z, the Gaston system was located near 17.1N 52.3W and convection was starting to wrap around the center. Although the system is still quite weak, the developmental environment is becoming a little more favorable as shear begins to decline.
Models offer a variety of solutions, and because of that uncertainty, the eventual strength and track is still uncertain - except near term motion toward the west seems like a certainty. SHIP and the BAM suite develop the system into a hurricane just south of Puerto Rico in three days. The 05/12Z GFDL takes the system well to the south of Hispaniola as a tropical storm while the 05/18Z UKMET brings the system close to southern Jamaica. Finally, the 05/12Z HWRF take the system along the south coast of Puerto Rico, then through the Mona Passage to just off the north coast of the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm in 5 days.
ED
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sun Sep 05 2010 05:55 PM
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Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge
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It's interesting seeing the Gaston system persist while being surrounded by dry air. There is an Upper Level Low centered just North of PR and the DR which is leading Gaston, but it looks to be just far enough away that any southerly shear will remain away from the Gaston system. The SAL is not strong at the moment and there is moisture working its way westward over the tropical Atlantic. The wave over Africa is already showing a hint of circulation, so we'll see what happens to that when it emerges into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the old frontal trough over the northern GoM is generating some more rain for North-Central FL after a week of very dry air and no rain.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Sep 06 2010 08:41 AM
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Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge
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Some convective activity is beginning on the south of the center, and one cell is fighting shear on the east. The west side is clearly is where the moisture is. If this system can generate and maintain convection on the south and moisten up its east side and if shear from the east relaxes, it can develop.
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Jasonch
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(Weather Watcher)
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Mon Sep 06 2010 10:24 AM
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Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge
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I believe the UKMET was the only model forecasting a significant hurricane in the carribean heading toward the gulf. Do you believe that solution is possible or way out in left field.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Sep 06 2010 11:18 AM
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Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge
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Not much improvement in the last several hours. the same two areas of convection persist, but no growth. If anything the system looks more stressed.
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