| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 01 2012 09:22 PM |
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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With Depression Five declared, we will start a Lounge on this system. This is where to put long range best guesses on intensity and forecast track. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
(Title updated to reflect new hurricane status.)
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 01 2012 11:56 PM |
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Re: TD 5 Forecast Lounge
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Long term this system has better odds to be a Caribbean rider and eventually move into the Yucatan/Central America. I really don't see too much that would move it to the north all that much, and if it does, it would die over the islands.
Intensity wise, I don't see it doing all too much unless it maintains itself in the Eastern Caribbean well.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 02 2012 12:24 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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If I lived on the Yucatan,I would pay very close attention to this system.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 03 2012 01:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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The next 24-48 hours will go a long ways in determining Ernesto's ultimate destination.
If he can't get better organized at this forward speed, he could open up and stay weak and run into Central America. A more organized, stronger storm would likely turn more NW into the Yucatan or even possibly running thru the channel and into the GOM.
Right now Ernesto is trucking west at a fairly good clip, and is in an unfavorable area for strengtheing. A lot of factors are working against Ernesto, but if it makes it past the Eastern Carribean as a TS then there could be bigger problems down the line.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 03 2012 02:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Hello.
It's been awhile since I've posted, which must mean that it's
been a while since a Hurricane threatened Houston to Mobile....
My home turf.
I have been lurking however, noting the Masters here an elsewhere.
And the NHC has been Very accurate in it's forecasting the Last two years,
which is why I'm now wondering why it's latest forecasts are being shorted.
Curious.
Because I'm a fan of Droughts attracting storms.
Thanx and watching GFS v UKMET modeling... :?:
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 03 2012 03:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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With Ernesto now in the Eastern Caribbean, the next several days are key. The weakness in the ridge seems to be picked up by multiple models (including GFS/EUro) and pulls it further north, with the Yucatan having the best odds for landfall.
Movement westward into central America is still very possible, but less likely today than yesterday, but most of the odds have shifted north toward the Yucatan.
In short, the very long range odds favor a Yucatan hit at this time, and likely south of Texas into Mexico.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 12:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Well OK then!
I love your bold position. Weakness that moves into Tampico and Matamoros.
You're in the Western Cone of probabilities.
Yes?
On the Ernesto 'Stormspotlight' page:
I see outflow and convection....a bad boy forming in the latest above.
Love this site.
Thanx for having me.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 12:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Ernesto is on track for the Yucatan, chances are dropping it will get much further north than that. The chances for a move north are a good deal less, but not impossible (see the GFDL/HRWF)
However the odds still lean toward Mexico and/or Central America landfalls mostly in the odds for the long run, and those in the Yucatan of Mexico, Honduras, and Belize will want to watch Ernesto very closely.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 12:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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YES, this morning you're forecast is looking
spot on.
":uarrow: The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the GFS and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that Ernesto is a strong TS and not a weak system..."
" Isn't this (the Latest GFS Ensemble track guidance) keeping it at basically a tropical storm or maybe low Cat 1 hurricane? (I get this from the pressure they have it at..) If that is the case, it makes sense why they have it so far west, but I think it will be stronger than that and therefore go more northerly. "
A weak storm hits Tampico Environs.
A strong storm clips the Yucatan's NE Corner.
Is that a fair assumption?
Thanx
Jim
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 01:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Ernesto has slowed his forward speed just slightly since yesterday. Whether it's in response to the ridge to the north or the area of dry air ahead of Ernesto it's really hard to tell right now.
I still see a tight clustering of the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models. With an extrapolated landfall in the Pensacola,FL to Gulfport,MS area.
All of the other models and the Official NHC Forecast take Ernesto toward the Cozumel/ Cancun,MX area. With one exception, the AEMN still goes west toward southern Texas and then doglegs toward the Lake Charles,LA/ Houston,TX area.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
TropicalAtlantic.com Ernesto Model page
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 03:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Daniel, I know the GFDL and HWRF are two of the best models in this business so are you discarding all of the southerly models at this time, and if so, what is your reasoning (not a challenge, I just like to know the reasons)? When should we see the official cone moving toward those models. At this point, they look like outliers versus the BAM ensemble, UKMet and LBAR. That swing up east would bring much more weather into my neighborhood around Tampa which is already saturated from Debby, a tropical wave and possibly another one this weekend. Thanks for your response!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 04:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Those models aren't completely without merit (The GFDL,HWRF) If the Upper Level low in the Gulf is enough to nudge the track a bit north of the forecast then that scenario seems a lot more likely than the Globals. In short, today is a pretty big day. Ernesto is still moving relatively quickly westward, veering south of the forecast track brings more credibility to the globals, veering north more to the others. Some of the latest mimic (microwave) data suggests in may be nudging a bit northwest of the recon fix, at least now.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 05:25 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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He looks to really be coming together now,fast too.I don't see anything that would greatly change the current forecast track.I agree with Mike that there is a pretty good chance this could turn into a major over the next couple of days.I still think the Yucatan is most likely the first landfall.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 07:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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The GFDL moved westward to match most of the other models this run, still what occurs after the Yucatan is up for grabs, west or recure, all depends on how far north/strong the storm gets. Odds still favor it going into Mexico again, however.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 01:14 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Alright then.
Could someone say why Ernesto will Not
be a Cat1 in 48 hours,
Yet the Clark Evans Intensity ensemble has Only 4 models including
the Official Forecast Track getting Ernesto there in that time.
And if DanielW says MS/Al,
I'm going with Corpus Christi to Morgan City.
Especially if there's agreement the stronger Ernesto,
the farther North it goes.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 02:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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I don't have a single reason in not following the majority of the models into Mexico and Central America.
I'm just very curious why the Main 2 Hurricane Suites are wanting to go North. The only reason I can see at this time is the possibility that they are reading the ULL over the Western GOM. If you look at the water vapor loops the ULL is pulling moisture in from over the Yucatan/ bay of Campeche area. I'm not an expert at any means with tropical systems. Just highly curious as to why the GFDL and HWRF Suites have been moving North and as of the latest Advisory the NHC has excluded those two suites. They normally use those two suites as the basis for their Forecasts.
The GFDL and HWRF both moving in the same direction is a bit of a Red Flag to me. Something is amiss here. Miami, we have a problem.
Always follow NHC and NWS watches, warnings and Advisories for protection of property and personal safety.
Jim, Corpus Christi to Morgan City is a good bet right now.
I agree with your Storms follow drought theory.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 12:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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" Post subject: Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:51 am 5 Category 5
Still racing along at 22 MPH and outpacing the convection this morning. Typical for a weak storm in the Caribbean and I remember one of the early GFS runs had Ernesto depicted as an open wave at this longitude. South of Jamaica is where the slow down usually occurs so the next 24 hours should eliminate a lot of possible solutions.
Thought I was seeing a stair step pattern beginning to appear in the tracking data earlier. That sometimes is a sign that a storm is putting on the brakes. The coordinates jumping north a little when a temporary LLC forms under each new convective burst then he tracks west again as the LLC outruns the convection. Last edited by Nimbus on Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:55 am, edited 1 time in total. "
I agree with this post and this one:
"
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H :larrow: Doesn't seem like slowing movement to me. Even if it does, its too late now...only wild center re-locations to the north will allow it a chance to do something. Looks ugly right now and that new burst means nothing."
But Only the 'Wild Center re Locations to the North' part....
Ernesto just jumped to 16N or at least closer than 15....
IMHO....
carmen 1974 claudette 2008 ...the closest analogs....
And the UKMET has Ernesto going up Sabine River.
....SWAG....
Giving a Nod to those looking at 2 Mexican Landings...
will pull Ernesto down to Galveston....
We'll know in the next 36 hours...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 12:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Ernesto is moving too fast again and the center (if you can call it that) is racing without he convection now. Recon is just not finding anything to support storm status and is behaving more like an open wave. It's shaping up to be more west and south that even I though earlier. At the rate it is moving now, it may not ever make it to the Bay of Campeche and just die over central America.
Ernesto was yet another victim of the eastern Caribbean "Hurricane Graveyard" effect.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 03:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
VALID 12Z THU AUG 09 2012 - 12Z SUN AUG 12 2012
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES AT A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT SLOWS
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS ERNESTO WAVERING NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
PRESSURE MAPS BEYOND THEN MAINTAIN THAT IDEA UNTIL ITS FINAL
LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAD NARROWED SINCE FRIDAY...SHOWING A LANDFALL
ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ STATE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
IS NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...STEER ERNESTO
FARTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE
IF ERNESTO BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS/TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
THEREFORE... PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 06 2012 01:47 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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While each storm is different Ernesto was no different than most of the other storms that traversed the Carribean close to South America. Despite having "the look" Ernesto could never overcome geography, dry air, and the overall climate data that has been noted for decades.
The GFS handled the storm very well for days, but it may have just undersestimated the boiling waters of the Western Carribean. Ernesto is rallying at the last minute and may strike afairly hard blow to Belize.
It would have been nice if Ernesto would have stayed weak all the way into the Yucatan and weak into N Mexico and somehow made its way into the Southern Plains of the US; but its not in the cards now.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 06 2012 05:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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In the last frame it looks like he is breaking up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 06 2012 06:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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I dont think its breaking up, but the 5 fixes by recon (last one around 1:30 est) show that the center is moving in a more NW direction or it keeps reforming north. I saw at 2p NHC stated that the direction was WNW not W. The latest center fix is also well north of the next forcast point they had
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 07 2012 12:25 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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I was watching the center fixes also. Yes, they are in a row at nearly a due NW or 315 degree heading.
NHC uses 6 hour averages on their headings so it would take a while to average out the NW run. ( Remember Charley 2004. Average said Charley was heading NNW after he made the right hand turn toward landfall.)
Computers don't have Eyes and that 3rd dimension is what gives us an edge over a computer.
I'm not sure what the NW run will do to the models as they aren't out yet. But it Should have some effect on them. I don't think it will be a large... Central GOM effect. But something along the lines of missing Belize and striking the Cozumel to Cancun area. Which in turn could line up portions of the South Texas Coast for a second landfall.
That's my two cents. And I didn't stay at Holiday Inn Express last night, or book Earl Lee.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 07 2012 02:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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There is an upper low in the SW GOM and though inverted it does extend to a weak upper low/open wave off the coast of North Florida that is barely noted on water vapor imagery to the NE and N to the developing long wave trough along the Eastern US with an upper low over Canada progged to move Southeast to the Great Lakes area and deepen and cutoff there; I expect the track to be adjusted a hair to the right...north but I don't see anything in the models to suggest that Ernesto will gain enough latitude to be turned north; the upper low over the SW GOM is progged to move west to inland Mexico in 48 hours and an upper (200 mb) ridge currently to the SW of Ernesto is expected to be out ahead of Ernesto backing the storm back to the west and west-southwest. Currently there is an upper ridge directly over the system but strong 30 knot wind shear from the north less than 200 miles to the northeast of the center and 30 knots from the south near the NW shore of the Yucatan peninsula; both indicative of upper lows over the SW GOM and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 07 2012 02:27 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
There is an upper low in the SW GOM and though inverted it does extend to the developing long wave trough along the Eastern US which an upper low over the Great Lakes is progged to deepen and cutoff; I expect the track to be adjusted a hair to the right...north but I don't see anything in the models to suggest that Ernesto will gain enough latitude to be turned north; the upper low over the SW GOM is progged to move west to inland Mexico in 48 hours and an upper ridge currently to the SW of Ernesto is expected to be out ahead of Ernesto backing the storm back to the west and west-southwest.
What do you think the odds are it makes it far enough north to have a direct impact on Playa Del Carmen?
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 07 2012 02:34 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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Expect tropical storm conditions with the possibility of hurricane force gusts...but more wind than rain to start and heavy rainfall potential once the center is south and especially inland. If you live there take your precautions serious. I don't like the current water vapor satellite imagery though the system has a large surface circulation envelope; I haven't checked the new recon data but this system looks nothing like it did earlier when it went through a pretty quick intensification phase.