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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Aug 06 2012 08:12 PM
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Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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She is not dead till she is dead. Should be about 600 miles east of florida heading NW in about 5 days.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Wed Aug 08 2012 05:02 AM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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At 08/04Z, the remnant low pressure center of Florence was located at 18N 54W. The low continues a steady movement to the west and although under westerly shear, convection is refiring to the east of the center. With the shear on a slight decline for the next couple of days, there is a small chance for some redevelopment of the system.
ED
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LoisCane
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Thu Aug 09 2012 01:58 AM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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You know despite being written off and having no chances and the Invest on NRL gone... the remnants of Florence remain active. I find that interesting.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
Lots of color there, persistent... how it manages that I don't know.
The area to the west of it is providing shear and well it keeps maintaining color and is easy to find despite being written off.
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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 09 2012 09:10 PM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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how is it possible? Energy. Florence is the biggest circualtion envelope i have seen all year. Storm like her just dont go away although weak, and fighting hostile conditions.
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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 09 2012 09:31 PM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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really that upper level low heading for florida is going to touch the surface sat/ sunday right off the coast and give lots of rain and local gusts to 40mph, florence will be 600 miles east of florida slowly moving nw, the two will fuji war.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 09 2012 09:35 PM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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the LLC opened into a wave yesterday.
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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 09 2012 10:28 PM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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everything above has no real basis execpt for a nogaps model run a few days ago. I feel that nogaps has a good handle vs the other models on the shallow flow characteristics of the large scale pattern as a whole. im not focusing on the center of the llc or wave, but as the whole synoptic pattern dealing with ernesto the upper low it self that has been moving slowly south for severla day and in the wake of ernest and upper level input from the outflow of ernesto, that the upper low would try and take on some mid to low level extra tropical characteristics. the wave entering the picture that is florence will be ventelated and sheared by this eveolving hybrid upper low. the result wouldent so much be the LLC forming again but more a meso scale features forming, fluxuating with the diernal pattern.
(Off topic material was removed.)
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Fri Aug 10 2012 01:26 AM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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At 10/00Z the remnant low level swirl of what was once Florence was located at 21N 62W and it is now stationary. Dry air and northerly shear have wiped out the remaining convection, so redevelopment is not expected.
ED
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 10 2012 01:49 PM
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Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
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I've been watching the potential interaction betwee the front crossing to the coast in the next day and the remains of Flo/convection south of it. Looks possible that at least the moisture will get entrained into the front...anything beyond that?
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