Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Tue Aug 07 2012 04:44 AM
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Lounge
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A new Invest - 92L - located at 11.6N 26.5W at 07/00Z in the far eastern Atlantic has some potential for eventual slow development. Currently the system has a central pressure estimated at 1009MB and it is moving to the west. The Invest area has good convective activity. This system should take more of a southern track as high pressure remains firmly in place in the central Atlantic.
ED
(Title updated to reflect current status of system.)
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
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92L is finally coming fully into view of our GOES-East, and those first couple of frames seem to show an impressive amount of convergence pulling together near the estimated center (11.6N 26.5W), but it is yet unclear if there is a well defined low level circulation (the next microwave passes will hopefully help with this).
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 07 2012 08:25 PM
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
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If I have to guess it would seem that the strongest vortex is at 11.0/34.0 approx in the most recent picture.
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
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Having a regular floater up over 92L during daylight is sure helping today.
I can see a couple of low to mid level swirls evident in some of the deeper convection, and I agree that it looks like the center may be trying to reestablish itself closer to the position noted above (and within one of the most recent more impressive convective flares). Aside from these perhaps transient mid-level vortices however, a complete OSCAT pass from 1358Z this morning really showed a very promising surface circulation to be centered near 12.1N 30.2W at that time. (LINK) Extrapolating that out several hours might suggest that whatever is left of this earlier bona fide LLC could now be closer to 12.5N 32.5W (maybe). Looks like we may need another good day or so to get a better handle on what is really going on.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Aug 08 2012 02:55 PM
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
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8:00 a.m. TD said near 12 N/35 W so we were in the neighborhood...the floater makes all the difference...
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LoisCane
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Thu Aug 09 2012 01:56 AM
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
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actually looking better tonight... not great but better.
has the same shape ...elongated tail that curves around ahead of it and bends off the top as the wave over Africa
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weatherhead
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Thu Aug 09 2012 04:16 AM
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Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge
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Yes, 92L is definitely looking better as the NHC boosted it's chances to 70% tonight. The GFS has not picked up on this one. I wonder if it will fizzle soon and if this may be the trend to come? Best to wait and see if or when it gets it's act together then the models can do their thing....
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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 10 2012 04:15 AM
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Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge
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10/02Z - I haven't looked at the 10/00Z run but I have looked at both the 12Z and 18Z runs..currently there's a break between the Cape Verde/African Upper Ridge and the Bermuda Ridge and for a while the Cape Verde ridge follow along the system but the anomalously deep cutoff low over the Great Lakes region is impressive to say the least with an extending long wave trough all the way to the Gulf Coast. The break appears to be in the vicinity of 56W longtitude and the westerlies take quite the dip. Florence is DOA with the long wave trough in place over the Eastern US and if it were to survive it would have a date with recurvature nevertheless. Any tropical activity has to stay right along 10N latitude to have any shot at getting across the AO. The models have been consistent for days bringing Ernesto back from the dead in the Pacific.
(This post was edited in the main forum, but posted in its entirety in the "lounge"...we affectionately call it the 5 day rule)
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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 10 2012 04:19 AM
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Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge
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10/0415Z - Looked at the 10/00Z package...the African wave continues to likely be a "fish" storm...blame Ed, he coined that phrase. A break between the Bermuda and Cape Verde upper ridges and the westerlies along the eastern US will be somewhat suppressed southward in the middle and long range. The storm to watch is TD7; it's the only system south enough to be pulled into the GOM given the upper air pattern next several days.
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Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge
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Is it me or has SAL/dry air been smothering TD7 all through its journey westward? And it looks like 93L may face the same SAL/dry air gauntlet. And Florence too looks like was wiped out that same way.
Is there a break in the dry air/SAL pattern likely soon? I guess we should hope the answer is no to keep the storms from intensifying.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Aug 11 2012 12:20 PM
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Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge
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it is the persistent SW'ly shear that is hindering development.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sat Aug 11 2012 03:07 PM
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Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge
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TD 7 weakens and becomes an open wave east of the Leeward Islands. Blustery rain squalls still possible in the Leeward Islands this weekend.
ED
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