| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 28 2022 08:22 PM |
|
Lisa Lounge
|
A broad area of low pressure forming in the southeastern Caribbean with strong and steady model support for development is now being tracked as an Invest, 95L, and we are starting a lounge on this feature.
NHC development odds within 5 days presently up to 70% and this could be conservative.
More details to come.
Please note: Agencies had initially erroneously tagged this disturbance "96L" but have since corrected it (95L) nd the title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 28 2022 10:08 PM |
|
|
Re: 96L Lounge
|
Model runs are pretty much inconclusive this early. CMC takes it on a similar track as Ian bringing it to western Cuba or the Yucatan Straights. ECMWF takes it through the middle of the Caribbean. GFS doesn’t have a handle on it, and the NAVGEM runs it up East of the Bahamas. It’s certainly something to keep updated on.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 30 2022 06:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 96L Lounge
|
All of the model runs this afternoon are in agreement, taking the system south of Jamaica and the Caymans westward to Belize/Nicaragua.