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Arlene Lounge
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An impressive pre-season area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has formed and has now been Invest tagged, 91L. Even though the chance for significant development is modest, given the location close to land and certain impacts regardless of development, we are starting a Lounge on this hybrid system.
Conditions for development into a bona fide tropical cyclone are fair this week, but are expected to become less conducive by the weekend. Whether or not 91L gets a name, moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over portions of the peninsula through the weekend.
NHC determined that Invest 91L has sufficiently organized to be classified as a Tropical Cyclone and advisoires on TD TWO began at 4PM CDT June 1, 2023, and the title has been updated accordingly. (Arlene as of 1PM CT June 2)
Ciel
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OrlandoDan
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Jun 01 2023 11:55 AM
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Re: 91L Lounge
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Looks like 91 L is expected to head south now and conditions will not be as wet for Central Florida.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Jun 01 2023 12:12 PM
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Re: 91L Lounge
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50/50 as of this morning. Satellite presentation looks fairly impressive, but there is some SW to NE vertical sheer evident. The models are in agreement on a slow southerly drift toward western Cuba.
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Bloodstar
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(Moderator)
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Thu Jun 01 2023 05:43 PM
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Re: 91L Lounge
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I'm a bit surprised that this fella is gaining traction. Haven't had a chance to check models, but wanted to say hi to everyone and welcome back! 
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Thu Jun 01 2023 06:11 PM
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Re: 91L Lounge
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And so it begins - 2023 is off to a fast start.
All this week in SFL we have been under a flood watch... its the normal afternoon thunderstorms but they have been really strong and occurring over the same spots. Two weeks ago we even had hail which is very rare.
Quick check of the models show south motion so this could drop a lot of rain on already saturated ground.
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mbfly
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(Weather Guru)
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Thu Jun 01 2023 06:14 PM
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Re: 91L Lounge
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Why is it that this system is expected to move south rather than the usual northward direction that most GOMEX storms take ?
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Re: TD Two Lounge
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The cyclone keeps finding itself occasional sweet spots within an otherwise less-than-ideal shear environment. In addition, it remains less deep than we often see in the tropics, unsurprising given its hybrid origins, and the worst of the shearing impacts higher up in the atmosphere are not always impacting it.
This morning recon is finding several areas, primarily in the northeast quadrant, with winds worthy of a named storm.
Track-wise, there are hints in some models of the system hanging on despite increasingly hostile shear over the weekend, and looping back to the northeast after a forecast track towards Cuba. Resilient systems can sometimes be cat-like, with multiple lives.
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JMII
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Jun 03 2023 04:37 PM
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Re: TD Two Lounge
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Shear really blew this thing apart. The low level spin is still intact but nothing can wrap around it. Looks more like a late season storm that reached the end of its run.
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OrlandoDan
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Jun 03 2023 08:18 PM
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Re: TD Two Lounge
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Torrential rain here in Wekiva of Orlando. Torrential. There is likely some flooding damage that is out of the ordinary.
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sun Jun 04 2023 09:21 PM
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Re: TD Two Lounge
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Please share... we are parched over here along the coast in central Volusia- going on 2 weeks w/o measurable precip.
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