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IsoFlame
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sun Jun 04 2023 09:30 PM
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GFS last 2 runs spin up system in NW Caribbean June 20th drifting N/NW
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Tail end of the last several GFS runs spin up a TD/PTC in the extreme NW Caribbean Sea. Not sure what shear will be like in that region then but there will be plenty of warm water juice if it can avoid interacting with Central America. 
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Jun 06 2023 01:28 AM
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Re: GFS last 2 runs spin up system in NW Caribbean June 20th drifting N/NW
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18Z has a fairly potent (978mb) system near the NE tip of the Yucatan on the 21st:
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Jun 06 2023 07:38 PM
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Re: GFS last 2 runs spin up system in NW Caribbean June 20th drifting N/NW
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Today's GFS runs have consensus on a fairly potent spin up in NW Caribbean around the June 19/20th followed by a slow track varying between NNW into the southern GOMEX in the general direction of LA/MS or NNE across western Cuba into the eastern GOMEX a few hundred miles west of Florida peninsula.
Long way off, but the day to day run consistency (with no outliers) has my undivided attention given the favored June development region and well above normal SST's..
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Jun 07 2023 02:40 PM
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Re: GFS last 2 runs spin up system in NW Caribbean June 20th drifting N/NW
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GFS still onboard with NW Caribbean system intensifying in the GOMEX. 06Z tracks it toward the central Texas coast as a hurricane by the 23rd. The 00Z run slower -in the central on the 23rd and stronger at 962 mb -borderline Major)
3 days of model consistency, but still over 10 days out. I'd love to see the tropical outlook extend out and discuss medium range model consistency (even though beyond a week can be a long shot)
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Jun 12 2023 01:48 PM
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Re: GFS last 2 runs spin up system in NW Caribbean June 20th drifting N/NW
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GFS bailed on the scenario past day's runs, takes general area of low pressure west into C America. Does still have a piece of energy ejecting N/NE out of the Caribbean into the Bahamas in late June.
(See general forecast model discussion for Mike's discussion of the C America Gyre and GFS)
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Robert
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Jun 20 2023 07:17 PM
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Re: GFS last 2 runs spin up system in NW Caribbean June 20th drifting N/NW
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Caribbean system nor north of hondurus, blowing up a nice ball of convection, with some spin it...I know, I know just won't give up on this guy. Be interesting to see how it evolves tonight. Today was the day it was supposed to get going.
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