Wed Jul 19 2023 04:58 PM
Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L)

12z GFS shows a weak system crossing through the Caribbean. GFS ensembles are not as enthusiastic about it as earlier runs.
12z CMC shows an organized wave/system for the first time with this wave, and gets it into the Caribbean.
12z Icon keeps it weak, but gets the system north of the Caribbean
12z euro keeps it weak through the Caribbean
12z Euro Ensembles are more spread out, several develop it into a hurricane (especially if the system stays north of the Caribbean)

20% chance of development seems good. Worth watching for the trends in the models and if things persist or not. GFS has been swinging wildly between north and Caribbean tracks.

Fri Jul 21 2023 08:33 AM
Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L)

Track models for Euro ensembles take this into the Caribbean.

Now that it's an invest several Intensity models are bringing it to hurricane strength, that combined with the relatively small storm size means the globals may not handle it well. The rule of thumb where a stronger storm moves a bit morth north may apply here. If the small size manages to keep itself inside a "protective pouch" around the dryer air (Which appears to be occuring) things could change as far as future track, so it should be watched particularly those in the Eastern Caribbean.

The globals are mixed the HWRF/HMON shows a strong TS or low end hurricane approaching the islands Tuesday. GFS/CMC/Euro Globals take it into the Caribbean where it falls apart, but don't seem to be picking up much on the small size. I'd be cautious using models with this system until something actually develops.

(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jul 21 2023 03:08 PM
Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L)

Latest GFS run gives 95L a bit more attention before it enters the Caribbean where it fizzles out as it tracks due west. I don't agree with GFS run that builds a 1034mb ridge driving the system into the Caribbean- haven't seen the ridge that strong yet this season. If 95L stays consolidated and can find and stay in a favorable pocket of moisture with low shear and the Atlantic ridge doesn't strengthen enough to continue driving it west, we need to pay attention. A late July hurricane gradually re-curving WNW would not be a surprise to me given the Atlantic basin water temps.

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