| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Sep 23 2023 02:58 PM |
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Late season activity? "It ain't over 'til the obese dame sings"
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I keep looking ahead for modeling to suggest a spin up in the post-peak areas in the extreme western Caribbean and GOMEX, however nothing on the radar ATM. Since Idalia, the region has been exceptionally quite while the central and western Atlantic continue to fire on all cylinders. Will a westward moving disturbance finally get into the Caribbean, or will frontal activity in October penetrate far enough south to finally provide late season seeds for tropical cyclogenesis?
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 25 2023 05:17 PM |
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Re: Late season activity? "It ain't over 'til the obese dame sings"
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NHC has very low (10%) chance for development in the south/central GOMEX. The "Yucatan Express" appears to kick in this week, and tropical moisture will surge north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and get shunted across the Florida peninsula south of a stationary frontal boundary. Modeling is having a hard time figuring out where weak low pressure may develop (if at all) in the region , that is by all accounts (other than shear) ripe for development. Latest run of the GFS had high pressure building down the east coast into Florida, shunting a weak low off to the WSW over land. Have yet to see a run that gets my undivided attention, but would not be a surprise if modeling starts to hit on something a week or so away.
As with Idalia, if a weak low can stay off land and linger over warm water long enough, environmental parameters can eventually line up and development may occur rapidly. Seasonal climatology suggests probability in the western Caribbean and/or southern GOMEX.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 25 2023 05:27 PM |
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Re: Late season activity? "It ain't over 'til the obese dame sings"
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Based on the discussion and satellite imagery, the western Caribbean is favored this week:
GULF OF MEXICO
A broad surface trough extends from west-central Florida to the central Yucatan peninsula. Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft is enhancing the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE Gulf, especially over and just north of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the surface trough over the southeast and south- central Gulf accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will drift slowly into the western Gulf through mid
week and dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over the north-central and northeast Gulf.
CARIBBEAN SEA
Abundant tropical moisture and a favorable upper level pattern continue to sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 15N between 75W and 85W