MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Sat Jun 15 2024 01:00 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
General Long Range Lounge
|
|
This post covers areas that aren't well known yet, but are mentioned on models.
Starting off there's an area on 12z gfs showing a depression or tropical storm making landfall near Jacksonville FL Thursday, area matches the weaker area shown on 0z euro (which is more toward Brunswick, GA)
Only thing likely here is some rain for Extreme Northeast FL and/or Georgia Coasts later this week.
12z euro shows this system closer to the Treasure coast of Florida thursday evening, entering the Gulf and making Landfall is eastern Louisiana friday night.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Sat Jun 15 2024 07:54 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
This area is now tagged on the outlook with a 20% chance for development.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Wed Jun 26 2024 07:36 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
The general pattern for the longer wave on the outook is the "Caribbean cruiser" system. Meaning it doesn't really recurve at all, and goes right into Central America. This was the pattern suggested by the long range climate models for the long term, so it'll be interesting to see if the 6Z GFS which shows exactly this or not. 0Z Euro and the Canadian GEM model also show it not leaving the Caribbean, but weaker to much weaker than the GFS. If so it's more likely not to get north of the Caribbean than it would. Those in the Leeward islands will want to keep up with this system though, any impacts there probably are around Monday.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Wed Jun 26 2024 02:36 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Atlantic wave (40%) 12z Euro has a cat 3 hitting cozumel in the long range (July 5th)
|
|
CFHC
|
|
()
|
|
Wed Jun 26 2024 04:13 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Now is invest 95L
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Tue Jul 09 2024 10:15 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
After Beryl, not much going on model wise other than the Icon trying to hint at Something off the East Coast of Florida on Friday, but not really shown on any other model.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Tue Jul 09 2024 05:00 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Well CMC And Euro (and ensembles) show it also now after 12z, just weak and short lived though, heads up toward the SE North Carolina Coastline.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Mon Jul 22 2024 06:41 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Not much, but a hint of activity in the first week of August on the long range Euro ensembles, coming slowly from a wave currently over Africa.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Tue Jul 23 2024 06:46 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
12z euro shows this over the bahams now later in the cycle, but not really any other models, except one member of the GFS ensemble. Again just something to potentially watch mid to late next week.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Wed Jul 24 2024 05:19 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Euro is alone on this, but interesting for late next week
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Thu Jul 25 2024 07:20 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
0Z Euro has much less activity in the ensembles and nothing really significant on the operational run. So chances seem to be a little less this morning, still worth watching.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Fri Jul 26 2024 08:59 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
0z Euro Ensembles are a bit more active today. GFS shows the system now, but it goes into the Gulf (late developer). Timelines, if anything were to get it near Florida it would likely be around next Saturday (August 3rd).
GFS and Canadian show the area now too, although GFS gets it into the Gulf near Louisiana as a TD/TS, Euro near Mobile, AL as a TS, Canadian near the Florida Pandhandle after crossing the Keys as a wave or TD. Although all the models it doesn't develop until late in the run.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Fri Jul 26 2024 02:43 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
This area now is on the outlook as a 20% area. AS the 12z euro stretches it out and doesn't really develop it now, some of the ensembles still have it. Worth watching next week regardless.
|
|
IsoFlame
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Fri Jul 26 2024 05:39 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Regardless of whether it develops, or is sacrificial in the current unfavorable conditions, the projected track steered by a persistent ridge of high pressure in our general direction will probably set the stage for what could be a congo-line of systems as August progresses.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Mon Jul 29 2024 04:12 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
More info about the Central Atlantic Area has moved here
https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=114989&gonew=1#UNREAD
|
|
CFHC
|
|
()
|
|
Fri Aug 02 2024 06:30 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
12z and now 18z GFS show another wave forming in the Caribbean after PTC4.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Thu Aug 08 2024 03:47 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Newer area now has a 40% chance to develop. Models are all east of the US now, but do go through the Caribbean islands, and some through the Bahamas.
|
|
MikeC
|
|
(Admin)
|
|
Thu Aug 29 2024 07:32 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Long range has picked up overnight, with all major models developing the system marked as a 20% area. The 6z GFS has a major hurricane landfall in Tampa Bay.
|
|
IsoFlame
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Thu Aug 29 2024 03:00 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Initially, not much (if any) development in the central Atlantic, then potentially rapid when system enters the eastern Caribbean. Check out the following links illustrating the uncharacteristically rapid cooling in the equatorial Atlantic (could there be a teleconnection for why systems are not strengthening to the north in the MDR?):
cooling rate
cool region
|
|
IsoFlame
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Fri Aug 30 2024 03:01 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
My gut feeling is that we need to closely watch our backyard for short-notice, home-grown tropical cyclogenesis instead of the keying in on MDR long-track systems in the 2024 season's version of "weird". Last run of the GFS suggested that both the western Atlantic and the Gulf could spin up significant TC's rather quickly given the exceptionally ripe environment in early September.
|
|
CFHC
|
|
()
|
|
Mon Sep 16 2024 03:40 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
GFSS and GEFS and CMC all have something in the Gulf next week, but the CMC and Ensembles are split with the GFS. Canadian has a SW Florida cat 2/3 hit, whereas the the GFS has a 4/5 hit in Northern Mexico. Something to watch next week regardless.
|
|
IsoFlame
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Tue Sep 17 2024 11:38 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
|
|
Central Americas gyre becoming active about the same time deep, un-worked over (since Beryl)/Debby) near-peak SST's in the western Caribbean and eastern GOMEX provide ample fuel and atmospheric conditions become extremely favorable signal that any spin-up that occurs in the region next week could have explosive potential. Modeling has been playing on this with some consistency, though ultimate track remains a question.
Given trough deepening over the western third of the CONUS and high pressure building off the mid-Atlantic coast, anything that forms may drift north then northeast into the eastern GOMEX, potentially threatening the Florida panhandle. Stay tuned...
|