| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 26 2024 02:01 PM |
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Milton Lounge
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A wave now entering the Caribbean is likely to help pull up an area of spin over extreme northwestern South America this coming weekend, and once combined, a robust low could develop in the western Caribbean early to middle next week. Models are increasingly warming up to developing this low into a tropical cyclone, and NHC has just included this possibility in the afternoon Tropical Weather Update.
Given the strength of the signal from modeling and the fact that the basin is presently under favorable conditions for TC genesis, we are starting a lounge on this modeled tropical cyclone at this time. This feature does not yet have an Invest number, but may very well be assigned one by early next week, and we will update the title of this Lounge at that time, as warranted.
More details to come
As of 12PM CDT Friday October 4, the area of interest we have been tracking is now primarily located in the western Gulf of Mexico. The wave is now in the process of merging with some cross-over energy from former East Pac TD 11 (from Invest 96E), with increasing model support for significant development, and an Invest tag in the western Gulf could be coming as soon as later today or Saturday, and the title will be updated as warranted.
An Invest tag is coming on this feature. Invest 92L as of 0z 10-5-24
2024-10-05 00:00 22.0 -95.5 25
This system is now Milton as of 12:25PM CDT Saturday Oct 5
Ciel
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 28 2024 10:44 AM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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GFS On this one develops it and makes landfall near mobile, however tthe CMC moves it further east, gets it caught up in shear and makes landfall in the Florida peninsula as a very weak system. The Euro and Icon generally head it weaker toward Florida (but the run ends before it gets there on those models). Biggest difference in GFS vs the others is the interaction with the cold front.
So, unfortunately it looks like another system to watch. Timing probably around October 8th for any landfall in the US, give or take a few days.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 28 2024 10:31 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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Trend among the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles seems to be increasing the possibility of two distinct systems in the Gulf:
1. The lead wave that helps pull up the area of spin down around South America tries to develop, with several ensemble members doing so but almost all of those staying on the weaker side and driving whatever it is (wave/low/TD) into Mexico or south Texas as mostly a breezy rain-maker, and
2. The area of preexisting spin that the lead wave pulls up, with an apparent majority of members of both global models cranking up from TD to strong hurricane, with most of those then driving it into the northern or eastern Gulf (from about Lake Charles, LA to the Everglades National Park, in the 12z and 18z runs).
It is noteworthy that many runs also ramp the Central American Gyre back up and spin out a system once again on the Pacific side, as well. This is a bit messy and can make early modeling very suspect. Overall, ensemble-implied development odds may be about 80% within 10 days from the NW Carib into the Gulf. NHC has bumped up this region to 50% odds within 7 days.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 30 2024 07:03 AM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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One of GFS runs has this potential gulf storm going into Tampa Bay on Tuesday the 8th. It pops up off Campeche on Sunday and moves NE across the gulf.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 30 2024 01:56 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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Quote:
One of GFS runs has this potential gulf storm going into Tampa Bay on Tuesday the 8th. It pops up off Campeche on Sunday and moves NE across the gulf.
That is just one of the GFS runs in their ensemble. Most runs take the system into the Florida panhandle. I don't think we should be alarming anyone in the Tampa Bay area at this time.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 01 2024 06:43 AM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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Quote:
That is just one of the GFS runs in their ensemble. Most runs take the system into the Florida panhandle. I don't think we should be alarming anyone in the Tampa Bay area at this time.
True as more recent runs show a nothing burger.
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 04 2024 12:43 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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Most of the models are warming up to a tropical storm or hurricane forming in the gulf and coming into the west coast of Florida in several days.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 04 2024 04:29 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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Regardless of tropical cyclogenesis, modeling suggests a strong gradient across the Florida peninsula due to the developing area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf and the strong high pressure ridge to the north, resulting in several periods of strong onshore NE/E flow through mid-October. The eroded stretch of Florida's east coast from the Cape northward will be especially vulnerable as monthly tides peak (October 12-20th).
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 04 2024 04:59 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell just posted on X that he is predicting a cat 1/2 near west Florida coast late Tues or Wed...first met I have heard predict much more than a possible TS. What does this group think??
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 04 2024 05:18 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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The models are ramping this back up again. Very concerning since I am looking at buying a property in Cape Coral. However we made sure the closing is mid November so it is the current owner that is sweating bullets right now. Biggest worry is surge, along with data indicating a big rain maker regardless of concentration of winds. Having two homes in SFL is all kinds of stupid… but here I am being that guy
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 04 2024 08:42 PM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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The Area of Interest we have been watching is becoming better organized today, and has been Invest tagged, 92L.
Recon missions begin Sunday
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO).....ADDED FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 06/1200Z
B. NOAA3 01HHA TDR
C. 06/0800Z
D. 22.0N 94.0W
E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 92.5W FOR 06/1800Z. (NO CHANGES)
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/0000Z AND 07/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 06/2000Z AND 07/0800Z, RESPECTIVELY. (CHANGED)
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 04 2024 09:42 PM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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I’m waiting for the 00z model runs. We’re due to arrive home from vacation on October 10 to the Tampa Bay Area. I’d not like to have to hole up in Georgia an extra day or two.
| cieldumort |
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| Fri Oct 04 2024 10:32 PM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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Above: 18z EPS Forecast cyclones as of Oct 9 18z. Credit: Weathermodels.com
12z ECMWF ensemble implied development odds in the Gulf within the next 5 days is virtually 100%, with most of the individual members on the strong to Major side and an impact focus of Florida.
18z ECMWF runs are 100%, and generally even stronger than the 12z runs. Ryan Maue points out that the18z control "was mid 980s, which is what it said for Helene days out."
0z ensemble runs will be coming out overnight, along with the first bids from the hurricane models (HWRF, HAFS, etc).
Based on this afternoon and evening's conventional satellite and microwave images, along with some scantly available ship and buoy reports, nascent TC genesis may already or soon be underway in the Bay of Campeche.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 06:27 AM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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It’s been tagged as 92L. Only good news for now is the GFS shows shear increasing during its run across the gulf keeping it in the Cat 1/2 range. Weds 10am into Clearwater.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 09:32 AM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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GFS 06Z run has 948 mb Milton just offshore from Bradenton/Sarasota area Wednesday morning.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 10:09 AM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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12z early model plots are clustered near or just south of Tampa.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 12:03 PM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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NOAA came out with the forecast track and cone of uncertainty at 11 AM EDT of TD 14. It is a very bloated cone in my opinion compared to the slender cone that Helene had. Just goes to show the amount of uncertainty there is in Fourteen's forecast track.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 12:49 PM |
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Re: Early Oct Invest 92L
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Models look fairly clustered to me for this far out. Tampa and Orlando both in the cone. Expectations are a strong hurricane. It's not too early to gas up. There will be a run.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 03:41 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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First, it's very unfortunate that we do not have recon missions already in Milton today. A few fortuitous microwave passes have at least helped with ascertaining current strength and structure of the cyclone, but as far as creating reliable forecasts go, ideally we would have recon flying nonstop already. I mention this as a caveat to all the models that are now rolling out, and also mention that I'm hesitant to share my own best guesses without recon data.
Second, it cannot be stressed enough that a wind scale alone, (Saffir-Simpson), is wholly insufficient to shorthand the dangers of any TC, and especially TCs such as Helene, and now perhaps Milton also. There is a discomforting chance that Milton never attains Major status, or worse, attains Major only to "weaken" before landfall (especially with a forecast of any such "weakening"), giving laypeople the deceptive impression that "it's not going to be bad."
The expected perpendicular angle of approach to the west coast of Florida is unusual in general. Newcomers and folks who otherwise may never have experienced a hurricane approaching the west coast from this angle may not have a clue. The fatality count from surge alone could be horrendous.
Soap box out of the way, here are some 12z hurricane model run overviews:
HWRF: Cat 3/4 by 06z Tues. Cat 4+ by 0z Wed. Landfall around Saint Petersburg as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 3 03z Thursday (Wednesday night).
HMON: Cat 3 by 09z Tues. Cat 4 by 0z Wed. Landfall around the Suncoast Keys predawn Thursday as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 2/3.
HAFS-A: Cat 3 by 18z Tues. Landfall near Bayonet Point as a potentially catastrophic surge-producing "only Cat 1/2" midday Wednesday.
HAFS-B: Cat 3 by 06z Tues. Cat 4 by 15z Tues. Cat 5 by 21z Tues. Landfall near Chassahowitzka Bay as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 2/3 Wednesday morning.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 04:35 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Did not Wilma take a west to east B-Line to South Florida?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 06:01 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Did not Wilma take a west to east B-Line to South Florida?
Above: Wilma (2005)
Off the top of my head I'd venture to say a very similar angle, yes. Dissimilar genesis, less time to create a fetch of surge in the Gulf, less Florida real estate to blast with surge, possibly less surge-vulnerable coast, although possibly some similar baroclinic interaction and "cool side" feel/gusts once coming ashore.
It might be informative to know what others who rode out or tracked Wilma think of the similarities and dissimilarities. This is a highly unusual storm track forecast for Milton.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 06:17 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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The set up to Wilma was very similar, except since it was the last week of October the front pushing down the state (and the High behind the front) was much stronger. I live in Jupiter on the SE coast where Wilma re-entered the Atlantic. Immediately as the storm was past us, the NW winds brought temps in to the 60's that afternoon and lows that night into the high 40s. Lows in the Tampa area are shown to drop to the low 60's Thurs-Sun with 50's north of about Cedar Key. Wilma also had a forward speed that was near or over 30mph to the NE! Because of the forward speed and, high water levels that were very warm in the everglades and minimal terrain to disrupt the winds, Wilma was still questionably a 115mph Cat 3 (officially I think they could only prove 105mph though) leaving Florida down from 120mph at landfall.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 06:21 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Did not Wilma take a west to east B-Line to South Florida?
It was more NE and formed at a lower latitude. Wilma went thru my backyard in NW Broward we got the eye wall, winds were pushing 90 mph. Without a doubt the worse storm I’ve been thru. No power for nearly 3 weeks.
Not liking this forecast at all. The NHC has it as Cat 2 / 3 at landfall, shear will be increasing but only at the tail end of its gulf crossing. Models are still iffy on forward speed and overall strength but location wise it’s Tampa to points north or south by 70 miles or so.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 07:53 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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In recorded hurricane history, I've only found two analog-ish post-September hurricanes. Both, as far as we know, were quite a bit weaker than what is forecast with Milton, and the population of Florida back then was under 400,000 in 1888 and less than 150,000 in 1859. For the entire state.
TC 7 of 1888
TC 8 of 1859
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 08:35 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Matt Lanza (editor @TheEyewallWx and also @SpaceCityWx) brings up the 1848 Tampa Bay Hurricane as a possible analog of sorts to a Tampa Bay-specific landfall. Differences exist as to time of year (September vs October) and location of genesis (largely unknown, but thought to be the Gulf), apply. Track-wise, a Major landfall on the west coast of central Florida is exceedingly rare no matter what.
| JumadukeFL |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 08:51 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Wave S.Am Trof
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We are licking our wounds from Helene. Admittedly, we are 99% better off than NC, but we were 60 miles from Helene's landfall, on the East side. Our property looks like a war zone (lost at least a dozen huge trees). We slept in our closet (our "strong room") when Helene made landfall, and went six days without power. Our neighbor has a vacation property next door, but lives fulltime in St. Pete; his neighborhood had record flooding, and he's told us that the majority of his neighbors' curbs are currently covered with drywall, carpet, kitchen cabinets, and furniture destroyed by the seawater. Now this ... and Milton looks to be threatening our firstborn as well, in Ft. Myers. This is a repeat of the crisis she had during Ian; evacuating to us wasn't the best option then, and she headed to the East coast, but what about now? Does she fight 146 hours of traffic through Tampa to get to us this time, or does she ride it out down there? Argh.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 09:13 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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0z models overall shifted left, but the consensus model TVCN hasn't really changed at all (just time plot points) I suspect the NHC stays the course on the 11PM Track and probably intensity wise too, although it's a good compromise between some of the models like the hurricane ones that show it strengthening a lot more, only to hit wild shear just before landfall and weaken rapidly. Landfall timing is the interesting bit, that could change.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 09:50 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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I think we will really know a lot more by early Monday morning. The first Hunter aircraft will be in the storm tomorrow collecting data that will be used in the models run Sunday night and the results will be in between midnight and 3 am Monday morning. All the results will be part of the 5am advisory, Hopefully immediate decisions can be made regarding evacuations and they go smoothly. I hope after Helene more people that can will leave early and those that don't will heed the evac warnings when issued.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 05 2024 11:08 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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It would be nice to have recon before tossing my max lifetime intensity bid in for Milton, but here it goes. Of course, tropical cyclones like Milton are far more than just their maximum sustained wind speed, and I'm a strong proponent of moving away from the Saffir-Simpson scale to something akin to what SPC uses in their graphics for severe thunderstorm/tornado outlooks, which for TCs would include serious impacts such as surge, inland flooding, wind damage and tornadoes, for example.
Max lifetime sustained winds for Milton (my best guess).
40KTS (Present NHC 10PM Advisory) <1%
45-50 KTS: 2%
60 KTS: 3%
65-70 KTS: 5%
75-80 KTS: 6%
85-95 KTS: 7%
100-110 KTS: 17%
115-135 KTS: 28%
140-155 KTS: 22%
160+ KTS: 10%
Or another way of looking at this, I think there is a roughly 95% chance of Milton becoming a hurricane of any intensity, a 77% chance of becoming a Major, a 60% chance of becoming a high-end Major (Cat 4 or 5), and about one-in-three odds of becoming a Cat 5, prior to making landfall on Florida.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 06:39 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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5AM NHC Day 4 forecast has Milton tracking nearly on top of my location (29.1N 80.9W) while maintaining hurricane force at 80 kts with gusts to 100 kts when it emerges into the Atlantic off Daytona Beach:
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
Milton could be a somewhat smaller version of Helene... a major hurricane strengthening up to land fall, with forward speed carrying the momentum of hurricane-force winds well inland- in this case across the entire central Florida peninsula.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 07:08 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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6z Icon is near Port Charlotte, Euro is near Sarasota, GFS is ST. Pete, Canadian is Ft. Myers. 6z TVCN Shifted a bit south today to Venice (Was St. Pete), the 0z Hurricane Models all come in North of Tampa, (HAFS-A And HMON to Crystal River, HWRF to Reddington Beach, HAFS-B to Homossasa Springs) At or North of Tampa is worse for Tampa Bay onshore surge, but track doesn't really mean much for the other effects. (Note on exit to the Atlantic the the opposite onshore wind surge is left (or north) of the storm)
The southerly models are forecasting a weaker storm, the northern ones a stronger storm. Recon data will help some for the models as the plane should be around there in a hour or two. The current NHC track oiver Tampa and Orlando and exiting into the Atlantic near Cape Canaveral is solid right now based on what's known currently. I'm not convinced Milton will get overly strong, but it's important to watch for it, if it does go stronger than forecast the more northerly tracks seem more likely.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 08:02 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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I don’t think I’ve ever seen a NHC forecast that states anything from Cat 1 to Cat 5 is possible due to the interaction with an approaching front. It could transition to extra-tropical just before or after landfall. They note it’s a small storm thus rapid fluctuations are possible. My main concern continues to be surge given the area in the cone. Ft Myers and Tampa are both VERY surge prone due to shape of the coastline. Forward speed will be critical here, a fast mover can’t pile up as much water and the speed factor is another wild card the NHC mentions.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 09:01 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Don't look at the week two GFS! Another Wilma/Charley type track coming up and hitting the west coast and then exiting the treasure/space coast! Geeez!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 11:34 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Seeing a lot of reaction on social media to the slight adjustment south of the NHC center line with the 10AM Advisory. I know most of us here already know this, but it's still probably a good time to reiterate that shifts in the center line will continue to occur up to, into and after landfall, and that NHC's own studies have shown that this far out the actual track could be many tens of miles either side of the current center line, and even outside of the cone entirely roughly 30-40% of the time.
| Ed Ardzinski |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 12:15 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Yes, that slight change might put me in the northern half of the eyewall in Northern Pinellas. Joy.
Looking at the nullschool rendering it seem that most of the shear is in the boundary layer and the central region is spinning close to a solid body. Good signs for explosive growth. Guessing this could be a hurricane by the 5 PM advisory,
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 12:27 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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12z GFS shifted left from St. Pete to well north of Tampa closer to Homosassa springs, and 12z Icon shifted left to Sarasota, only CMC remains in Naples so far. This is just after the 11am track shift south, so I'd imagine the NHC puts the breaks on any more southerly track adjustments at 5pm.
Also Milton is primed for RI today.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 12:28 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
...Guessing this could be a hurricane by the 5 PM advisory,
I am anticipating the same thing... Hurricane by 5PM today.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 01:26 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Generally speaking, stronger and deeper hurricanes tend to move more poleward as they are moving east to west in the Atlantic. Would this also be true for a storm like Milton moving east or northeast? Just wondering if the models that that are showing a strongest Milton (more the hurricane specific models) are the northern most and the weaker Milton models (Euro, Canadian, etc) are the southernmost with the GFS in between! As Milton is seeming to want to get strong quickly, this may draw him towards the more northern solutions…
| criscr0smind |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 01:34 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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and all this rain is just making it worse, we've already had 2 inches today in northeast palm beach county, on ground that is already saturated.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 01:55 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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12z euro shifted from Sarasota right/north to Bradenton, the HMON, HAFS A & B all range from St. Pete Beach to About Tarpon Springs. The hurricane models rapidly strengthen it, but also weaken Milton about 6-12 hours before landfall..
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 02:33 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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What will be the dirty side of this storm? South of the eye?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 02:41 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
What will be the dirty side of this storm? South of the eye?
South of the eye is likely to have the worst surge and possibly the worst winds. However, with the Predecessor Rain Event that has set up over Florida, it's likely that much of the state is basically in "the dirty side" with excessive rain underway and continued flooding. Additionally, dry air entrainment/extra-tropical transition will spread damaging and gusty winds over a wide area, north-south and east-west.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 03:09 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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18z TVCN consensus has shifted back north to Bradenton, so now the official track is SOUTH of the consensus.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 03:38 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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A long way to go, but even Orlando should be preparing.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 03:44 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
18z TVCN consensus has shifted back north to Bradenton, so now the official track is SOUTH of the consensus.
FOX weather calls this the "windshield wiper" effect. Official forecast lags consensus, then consensus changes... back and forth.
If all of the changes are smoothed out now since we have an increasingly organized TC with a constant feed of flight data up to landfall, track should even out in the long run, unless there is an "October surprise".
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 04:23 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
What will be the dirty side of this storm? South of the eye?
Wind wise the current models put the strongest winds to the north due shear weakening the south eye wall right at or just before landfall. However that is a 50/50 guess right now as it’s a long way off time wise.
Surge wise south of landfall will be a major problem. I don’t see any reason to see this part of the forecast changing unfortunately.
Milton will likely be riding I-4 across the state and slamming a large area with hurricane force winds. Not to mention the onshore flow in NE FL on exit.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 05:06 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
[...FOX weather calls this the "windshield wiper" effect....
Looking at the latest track it appears that the storm track is staying south of Tampa Bay and not doing a windshield wiper behavior.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 05:11 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Good summary from NHC in the 4PM Discussion
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 06:12 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Will be intersting to see how this evolves. Will Milton be stretched NE to SW with strong winds from the SW ahead of the storm because of the front?
Just my observations of past storms from living here for 34 years.
Thoughts from the experts?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 08:09 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Will be intersting to see how this evolves. Will Milton be stretched NE to SW with strong winds from the SW ahead of the storm because of the front?
Just my observations of past storms from living here for 34 years.
Thoughts from the experts?
There is not yet an abundance of model consensus as to when extra-tropical transition begins, and by just how much. Hopefully all these recon missions help clear this up sooner rather than later.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 06 2024 10:10 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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What is really crazy is this weak low ahead of Milton. It’s been raining pretty much all afternoon in most of SFL. Looks like 70% of the state is already under a flood watch. Normal the outflow high pressure of an approaching storm of this strength should have generated fairly dry conditions.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 09:02 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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With the pinhole center of Milton steadily (albeit slowly) tracking a bit south of due east this morning, Tampa Bay area may dodge a major strike once again (keeping the 100+ yr streak alive). With the east track carrying past tip of Yucatan before the forecasted turn northeast, ATM I'm thinking landfall just south of Sarasota near Siesta Key with exit into the Atlantic just south of the Cape.
| Ed Ardzinski |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 09:42 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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best of a bad situation here in North Pinellas. Gonna be bad either way.
interaction with Yucatan could be a little wild card. But I'm getting ready to hunker down
| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 09:51 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
With the pinhole center of Milton steadily (albeit slowly) tracking a bit south of due east this morning, Tampa Bay area may dodge a major strike once again (keeping the 100+ yr streak alive). With the east track carrying past tip of Yucatan before the forecasted turn northeast, ATM I'm thinking landfall just south of Sarasota near Siesta Key with exit into the Atlantic just south of the Cape.
I'm sorry, but this myth just offends me. I have lived in North Tampa since the mid 70's and there were plenty of storms that hit us. Yeah, maybe they didn't completely wipe out the city (as some ghouls seem to want), but there has been flooding, major damage, power outages and loss of life. Anyone who supports this 100 year myth is usually a real estate speculator. If sitting in the dark listening to tree parts hammer your storm shutters all night is "dodging" the storm, then I'm out.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 11:13 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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As of the 11 AM EDT update, it appears that the west coast Florida impact has moved ever so slightly north of where it was during the last update. It looks like it now has a direct path into Tampa Bay. I realize Milton is still 2 and a half days out, so pinpointing a landfall with any accuracy is somewhat silly. We will have to wait and see.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 11:14 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Re. Tampa, there are a lot of members of our reliable models that take the center of Milton directly over or north of Tampa.
Milton keeps tracking a bit to the south of forecast, but this can also work against a south-of-Tampa ultimate landfall, as well. The hurricane could stay stronger for longer and consequently respond better to tugs and shoves that would send it further north (e.g., Tampa or north of there). This might be counterintuitive by just looking at satellite loops, but the science on this potential outcome is sound and very much in the realm of possibilities.
A strike south of Tampa might "just" be a nightmare. A strike directly over or a bit north of Tampa could be unspeakable. The potential damage could rival that of the most infamous landfalling hurricanes.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 11:29 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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From 9AM to 11AM motion was nearly due E which was slightly N of forecast. Milton is already getting close to Cat 5 levels. Getting Wilma vibes from this with the tiny eye and rapid intensification. So far is the wind field reminds small, hurricane force out to 30 miles and tropical storm out 80 miles from the center, can only hope it stays this way unlike Wilma which expanded and had a 60 mile wide eye at landfall that created tons of wind damage from N Lake Okeechobee all the way thru Miami.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 02:09 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
I'm sorry, but this myth just offends me. I have lived in North Tampa since the mid 70's and there were plenty of storms that hit us. Yeah, maybe they didn't completely wipe out the city (as some ghouls seem to want), but there has been flooding, major damage, power outages and loss of life. Anyone who supports this 100 year myth is usually a real estate speculator. If sitting in the dark listening to tree parts hammer your storm shutters all night is "dodging" the storm, then I'm out.
If you are 60+ years old, from the 4th generation of a family that settled in the area shortly after the Civil War and have lived in central Florida (especially on either coast) all your life, I don't think you have truly weathered a direct (within 25 degrees of perpendicular) a close proximity (within 25 miles) hit from a Major Cat 4/5 hurricane plowing through the central peninsula. My 92-yr old dad who lived in the dead center of central Florida, his brother who lived in the Shores (east Pinellas/St Pete), and I living in Daytona Beach shores have not had the rarified experience, though Floyd, Mathew and Dorian had the potential to be worse-case scenarios where I live.
I'm not saying that a somewhat "weaker" cat 3 hurricane hitting at a greater angel has not or will not been destructive- it will be. Coastal residents in Florida live on a sandbar with geography subject to change.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 02:27 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
From 9AM to 11AM motion was nearly due E which was slightly N of forecast. Milton is already getting close to Cat 5 levels. Getting Wilma vibes from this with the tiny eye and rapid intensification. So far is the wind field reminds small, hurricane force out to 30 miles and tropical storm out 80 miles from the center, can only hope it stays this way unlike Wilma which expanded and had a 60 mile wide eye at landfall that created tons of wind damage from N Lake Okeechobee all the way thru Miami.
OMG... Last advisory blew through 5 threshold: 175 mph sustained, central pressure 911 mb.
Noticed a more easterly track with a recent jog ENE. Here on the east coast 35 miles north of the Cape, my preperations are for 80 mph sustained, gusts approaching 100 mph and an additional 5-8" of rain. Godspeed for everyone on the west Florida coast in ground zero or within 50 miles south of landfall.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 03:49 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Helpful site: https://cera.coastalrisk.live/
Shows predicted surge based on forecast track and intensity. I looked back at the data for Helene in Ft Myers and the prediction was very close with what the NOAA tide station reported. Places in Sarasota, Bradenton and East Tampa show 10 feet of water above mean sea level.
| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 04:04 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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I've been watching the interaction with the yucatan peninsula and noticed that the UKMET has been holding it's southerly prediction since the beginning. Also noticed this with Charley and Ian. Seems like a lot of the models did not predict a close encounter with land this early. I know the GFS has issues with landmasses ;which probabaly makes predictions in the Gulf especially difficult. At this point, I wish there were chart plots that showed all the models including the Euro, but you take what you get.
My question is since the Euro and UKMET models run twice per day; are the plot changes the result of extrapolation? Is there a human factor where they correct the course based on current trajectory, and then it gets trued up at the next model run? Seems like the GFS (which runs 4 times a day) is digesting more timely data but not able to look at the big picture. This would explain why it has issues with land masses and it tends to bounce around. The recent GFS models are trending way north, and pulling the median path with it. I'm hoping a greater alignment of the models once the storm is back in open water.
Also of note is the shear in the Gulf. Is that what the UKMET is seeing as a strong force keeping the storm south?
Tropical Shear Image
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 04:20 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
I've been watching the interaction with the yucatan peninsula and noticed that the UKMET has been holding it's southerly prediction since the beginning. Also noticed this with Charley and Ian. Seems like a lot of the models did not predict a close encounter with land this early. I know the GFS has issues with landmasses ;which probabaly makes predictions in the Gulf especially difficult. At this point, I wish there were chart plots that showed all the models including the Euro, but you take what you get.
My question is since the Euro and UKMET models run twice per day; are the plot changes the result of extrapolation? Is there a human factor where they correct the course based on current trajectory, and then it gets trued up at the next model run? Seems like the GFS (which runs 4 times a day) is digesting more timely data but not able to look at the big picture. This would explain why it has issues with land masses and it tends to bounce around. The recent GFS models are trending way north, and pulling the median path with it. I'm hoping a greater alignment of the models once the storm is back in open water.
EURO runs four times a day. UKMET is generally not a preferred Global as far as TCs in the western Atlantic basin are concerned. It tends to perform very poorly relative to the others. In our part of the world at least, the GFS handles the big picture far better than UKMET.
Plot changes are not a result of extrapolation. Plot changes are a result of highly sophisticated weather modeling interpreted by hurricane experts at NHC and, in other basins, other agencies.
Milton is not over land whatsoever, and is very unlikely to track over the Yucatan.
Ciel
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 04:27 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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The blowup of convection to Milton's northeast may be helping tug Milton a touch to the left of the most recently tweaked center line. This is just something to keep an eye on, and it is worth reiterating that small changes in track will likely continue.
In general, it is still expected that Milton will roughly follow NHC's Cone into landfall.
| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 04:32 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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I'm confused then, as all the info I've found shows the ECMWF runs twice per day, as does the UKMET. While the UKMET isn't designed for our area, it has been accurate enough to be included in the NHC predictions and has been mentioned several times on this forum for accuracy in the Gulf. I wasn't accurate about landfall, what I meant is the GFS has been stated as a model that is better for open ocean rather than areas bordered by land. It is a better flat surface model than a topology one.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 04:44 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
I'm confused then, as all the info I've found shows the ECMWF runs twice per day, as does the UKMET. While the UKMET isn't designed for our area, it has been accurate enough to be included in the NHC predictions and has been mentioned several times on this forum for accuracy in the Gulf. I wasn't accurate about landfall, what I meant is the GFS has been stated as a model that is better for open ocean rather than areas bordered by land. It is a better flat surface model than a topology one.
UKMET has its utility and can perform better in some scenarios. GFS handles North America and the Atlantic very well. If you'd like, start a new forum and ask/tell as to which model is best or DM. Thanks.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 04:58 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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all the info I've found shows the ECMWF runs twice per day.
It is run 4 times a day. @ 0Z and 12Z for 240hrs and @ 6z and 18z for 90hrs.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 07:22 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Recon at 22:19Z had a NE eyewall wind at 161kt - 185mph and the lowest 10m average was 174kt - 200mph! And the center pressure a few minutes later was 899MB!!!!!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 07:23 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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The GFS was a northern outlier showing landfall north of Tampa Bay. The 18z run now has it in the Pinellas County area of Tampa Bay, so the models are trending to coalesce on the projected track. This has the potential to be catastrophic for the Bay Area.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 07:43 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Recon at 22:19Z had a NE eyewall wind at 161kt - 185mph and the lowest 10m average was 174kt - 200mph! And the center pressure a few minutes later was 899MB!!!!!
My application of the Dvorak technique has it T8 now (Generally 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb in the Atlantic). Milton appears to be punching the outermost limits of theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 08:38 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:Quote:
Recon at 22:19Z had a NE eyewall wind at 161kt - 185mph and the lowest 10m average was 174kt - 200mph! And the center pressure a few minutes later was 899MB!!!!!
My application of the Dvorak technique has it T8 now (Generally 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb in the Atlantic). Milton appears to be punching the outermost limits of theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity.
196 is past isn't it? I thought 190-200 was IT. The barometer is going to keep plummeting though...
The possible storm surge from Milton is unthinkable really. 30 feet like Gulfport in Katrina? Higher?
Edited out political references
- Ciel
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 09:26 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Above: Today's 18z ECMWF ensemble member tracks and intensities
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 09:41 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Above: Today's 18z GFS Ensemble member tracks and max sustained wind speed ranges
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 10:05 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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I'm going with CHC, yet I hope to God this doesn't hit Tampa full-on. Again, as I say this every year, it feels terrible wishing bad upon others in order to wish better upon somewhere else, but a direct hit on Tampa with 200MPH winds...
Ummm anybody remember a place called Galveston, Texas? Sept 8, 1900?
Tampa Bay topographic map, elevation, terrain
Average elevation 36 Feet
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 07 2024 10:24 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Almost all the models show a weakening before landfall but it could be too little and too late. These same models were under estimating Milton’s current condition but he is doing things that are off the charts in terms of historical storms. The water vapor loop shows the dry air and strong a W to E jet that he is going to encounter while pushing NE. Gotta pray that has the desired effect.
A Tampa hit followed by an I-4 run across the state at even Cat 2 / 3 levels would bring epic levels of damage to a large population. Most inland home owners don’t have panels and are surrounded by large trees. Both Charley and Irma wrecked havoc on southern center of the state (Arcadia / Sebring) for these same reasons. But those ares have very sparse populations in comparison to Orlando
| Rhino7170 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 12:25 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
I'm going with CHC, yet I hope to God this doesn't hit Tampa full-on. Again, as I say this every year, it feels terrible wishing bad upon others in order to wish better upon somewhere else, but a direct hit on Tampa with 200MPH winds...
Ummm anybody remember a place called Galveston, Texas? Sept 8, 1900?
Tampa Bay topographic map, elevation, terrain
Average elevation 36 Feet
It's not projected to hit anywhere near 200 mph. I don't understand what you are looking at to come up with that, but I guess you never know. There is nothing forecasting that at all though.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 06:27 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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When citing historical facts as references, let’s at least try to get them correct:
Quote:
The possible storm surge from Milton is unthinkable really. 30 feet like Gulfport in Katrina? Higher?
The peak storm surge with Katrina was “was as high as 12-14 feet in Bayou La Batre, AL and likely close to 20 feet along the Mississippi-Alabama border”. The peak surge forecast for Milton is 10-15 feet, not 30 feet.
Quote:
but a direct hit on Tampa with 200MPH winds...
Ummm anybody remember a place called Galveston, Texas? Sept 8, 1900?
The winds of Milton near landfall are forecast to be ~125 mph, not 200 mph. The winds of the 1900 Galveston hurricane were estimated to be between 130-140 mph, not 200 mph.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 07:48 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Of note in the NHC discussion is the wind field is forecast to double in size. It’s currently 30 miles of hurricane force and 105 of TS, so this gives us 60 miles of hurricane and 210 of TS. They are calling for Cat 3 at landfall and Cat 1 on the east coast exit near Titusville.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 08:08 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Recent model clustering landfall a bit south of the Bay area and the 8am advisory that nudged Milton on a track a little south of I-4, with exit near or just south of the Cape, buoys previous hopeful thought that the worst of Milton's expanding northern eye wall will stay just south of Daytona Beach, similar to Mathew's passage 35 miles offshore in 2016.
Still, with the wind field expanding, a weakened Milton, when back over water, will start pulling energy from the warm (82F) Atlantic on Thursday. Now instead of 90 mph gusts over 100 mph, preparing for sustained 65-70 mph, gusts to 85 mph. This is just below the threshold that Matthew established (80/95) for me to panel up my 2-story/19 window house. Will wait for next advisory and better model consensus to make this decision...
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 09:07 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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While I have tremendous faith and confidence in the NHC, both the track Milton takes into FL’s west coast and where it crosses the east coast are dependent on two course changes. The first is a change in course toward the NE as Milton approaches the Gulf coast. The second is a slight change more towards the east as it makes landfall. The timing and extent of those moves can significantly affect where Milton makes landfall and where it exits on the Atlantic side.
In 2005 Rita was supposed to track right over our little neighborhood 12 miles inland 72 hours before landfall. While I was stuck in the mass exodus from Houston, the forecast started shifting east ~36 hrs before landfall. It ended up coming ashore ~100 miles east of us.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 10:04 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Always tough to judge small course changes vs long terms trends. For example so far today Milton is riding the N edge of forecast. So is he already feeling the upper level tug that will pull him NE? Or this just a random wobble? The eye has clouded up making the center more difficult to judge vs that clear pin hole we had yesterday.
As noted above by @TXEB Milton has two more turns to make, a NNE motion from Mexico into the gulf, then a more ENE turn into Tampa right before or at landfall.
I remember when Irma kept trending W which completed changed landfall. She was still within the cone but went from an east coast to a west coast storm: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind The error can be seen in advisory #34 which shows a hit on Miami, then on advisory #40 the hit on Naples becomes apparent, that is a 100 mile difference.
Intensity models show Milton should weaken from here on out, albeit slowly at first. There is a chance of slight strengthening or at least steady state for the next 36 hours.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 10:30 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:So is he already feeling the upper level tug that will pull him NE?
Always tough to judge small course changes vs long terms trends. For example so far today Milton is riding the N edge of forecast. So is he already feeling the upper level tug that will pull him NE? Or this just a random wobble? The eye has clouded up making the center more difficult to judge vs that clear pin hole we had yesterday.
I think the tug NE is evident in the elongated (versus previously concentric) structure: GOES East GOMEX view
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 10:41 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
While I have tremendous faith and confidence in the NHC, both the track Milton takes into FL’s west coast and where it crosses the east coast are dependent on two course changes. The first is a change in course toward the NE as Milton approaches the Gulf coast. The second is a slight change more towards the east as it makes landfall. The timing and extent of those moves can significantly affect where Milton makes landfall and where it exits on the Atlantic side.
In 2005 Rita was supposed to track right over our little neighborhood 12 miles inland 72 hours before landfall. While I was stuck in the mass exodus from Houston, the forecast started shifting east ~36 hrs before landfall. It ended up coming ashore ~100 miles east of us.
Just a quick add on, The ensemble runs show a variance of potential tracks, The spread of the ensemble can give a reasonable sense of the most likely range of paths. In this case the spread matches the NHCs uncertainty spread.
- Milton storm center could hit anywhere from 50 miles north of Tampa, to 50 miles south of Tampa.
- Milton is forecast to have an expanded wind-field, so hurricane force winds should be expected all along the coast.
- All these small variations in track make a huge difference for Tampa Bay, a direct strike, versus a track south of the bay, or a strike north of the bay, each will have dramatically different impacts for the area.
There's no need to hype the intensity of the storm, a landfalling Cat 3 or 4 into western Florida is going to be bad enough!
Everyone be safe.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 10:49 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Noting some erosion of the deep convection on the north side. It would be great if the shear that awaits Milton as it gains latitude could weaken the hurricane several categories as quickly as yesterday's ideal conditions led to phenomenal rapid strengthening.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 11:00 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Noting some erosion of the deep convection on the north side. It would be great if the shear that awaits Milton as it gains latitude could weaken the hurricane several categories as quickly as yesterday's ideal conditions led to phenomenal rapid strengthening.
Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
| Lautermilch |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 11:25 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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I have a question. I live in Sebring and have to make a decision on my options so at what update should I expect the projected track to be 'final' as can be? I know this one right now looks 50 miles north or south of Tampa and that is a huge margin. I live in Sebring so decide I must.
| Ed Ardzinski |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 12:18 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
takes more that warm water, else we'd have seen more storms the last 2 years in the GOM. that's some significant looking shear...got to grab on to something to hope for.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 12:32 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
I live in Sebring and have to make a decision on my options so at what update should I expect the projected track to be 'final' as can be? I know this one right now looks 50 miles north or south of Tampa and that is a huge margin.
We stayed in place for Beryl, which hit us with strong Cat 1 winds, from which we had no damage of any kind. Previously we evacuated for Ike, again without any damage. But from both of those let me share a few things learned. Even if you’re secure at the immediate threat from wind and water, you need to be prepared for living in what conditions will be after the storm passes. That includes mobility (roads may be blocked or impassible for several days), power (Ike killed ours for 10 days, Beryl for 2.5), and once able to travel access to fuel and food. When there’s no power in the area broadly stores will be closed meaning no purchases. So do consider what it may be like after the storm has passed, and what you would need access to.
As far as track and cone of uncertainty, it’s a statistical probability that accounts for 2/3rds of storm tracks over the previous five years. You can see the actual numbers and get a good explanation here.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
The distances cited are from the forecast track, so plus/minus.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 12:47 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
Keep in mind that the water in the Bay of Campeche was THE warmest water in the GOM. It hadn't been mined by a storm since early in the season. However, the eastern GOM has been mined by several storms especially Helene just a week or so ago. So that water is warm but nowhere near as hot as what Milton was over the last 2 days!
Also, from the 11am NHC Discussion : "The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast." 60-70 miles at 1.5-2 days is pretty good!
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 01:24 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Is there a good map to compare the projected path with actual? The appearance is it is tracking somewhat South of what is projected and wobbling East. I know we should pay more attention to a longer term path through.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 01:25 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
I think the tug NE is evident in the elongated (versus previously concentric) structure:
Agree he is looking a little squished. Outflow to the NW is being eroded. However at the same time he seems to have consolidated, the eye has cleared again and the core is strong and tight.
Quote:
I live in Sebring so decide I must.
Sebring is likely to see Cat 1 level winds. My parents lived in Sebring and stayed for Charley and Irma. Problem with that area is lots of old growth big trees so expect roads being blocked and extensive power outages. Since its not a major population center nor close to any major interstates its not a priority for relief efforts. After Irma my parents didn't have power for nearly 4 weeks down in Lake Placid. You might be reasonably safe depending on tree situation and home construction but the aftermath will be miserable with no power, water or food. On the current forecast track you'll be 65 miles south of a Cat 2. I would secure your property now and if leaving maybe wait until tomorrow AM. TS winds should start arriving Weds PM, so you want to be clear of the area by then to avoid driving in hazardous conditions.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 01:34 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Regarding SSTs Helene had only minimal "cooling," in air quotes, on the eastern Gulf, and virtually none right along the west coast of Florida. There is a (relatively-speaking) cool wake, but a lot of it has recovered.
SSTs this year have been record high. What could have been an impactful wake in some seasons, is scarcely so now. One way of visualizing this is with Kerry Emanuel's MPI, which is shown below with Milton's current forecast track overlaid. There is enough MPI to easily support Category 4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson up through landfall:
Image cr: CIMSS
Basin-wide MPI:
| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 03:03 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:Quote:
Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
takes more that warm water, else we'd have seen more storms the last 2 years in the GOM. that's some significant looking shear...got to grab on to something to hope for.
Correct on that shear. It's been pushing it south and forcing some interaction with the Yucatan. I suspect all that wobbling has been playing heck with models, especially the GFS.
Wobble tracker
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 03:53 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Of note, Recon is once again reporting falling pressures, back down to 924mb. I'm thinking the interaction with the Yucatan disrupted the circulation along with an ERC. Just be safe and stay alert.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 03:56 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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A lot of 18z guidance is shifting a bit south.
There has been a trend for Milton all along to veer south-of-forecast with intensification phases. The hurricane is very likely now Cat 5 again (awaiting new recon mission to confirm, but easily 160+ MPH based on satellite).
A track further south overall could
Keep it over the Loop Current for longer (Higher octane fuel)
Prevent it from interacting with as much detrimental shear, perhaps by a lot
Have significant implications for which locations get the very worst of the worst
Raise Saffir-Simpson intensity into landfall (Cat 4 and 5 could both be on the table)
Delay extra-tropical transition, resulting in more of a classic hurricane for longer (vs "half-a-cane" look as seen on some models)
There is a system off to Milton's north to northeast ~ frontal with frontal lows ~ this/these could still create some lowering of pressures to Milton's north and northeast, drawing Milton to the north, but more and more so today, that area of disturbed weather is attempting to congeal into a sub-tropical storm off the east coast of Florida (heading east), and this prior source of pull to the north may be easing.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 04:04 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
|
I want to caution about buying into the 18z south shift, at least until more information is available, since the track is currently matching the HAFS models dead on, and it still winds up in St. Pete. Needs a bit more time to verify.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 04:22 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
|
It has trended SE of target since the 11AM update, however from 2AM to 11AM it was slight NW of the center line. From its 8AM position its gone nearly due E for 65-70 miles. As mentioned by @cieldumort during the weakening phase it drifted N while strengthening it went S which is kind of the opposite of normal hurricane motion. Currently its off target by just 20 miles, so in the end maybe all the wobbles even out. Currently landfall is sometime late Weds PM or early Thurs AM so we've got another 36 hours to go.
https://zoom.earth/storms/milton-2024/ has become my new favorite site for tracking.
| TheQueensBarge |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 05:00 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
|
One thing I never see mentioned is that if electric power is lost sewage lift pumps go down. Therefore nothing flushes. Something to think about when you're considering whether or not to evacuate.
| kellyr |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 05:01 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
|
I know this is probably a silly question- when a storm enters from the east, the area with the most intensity is considered to be the right side. When a storm is predicted to make landfall from the west, does the same still ring true- that the right side will have the most intensity? Or is it the left?
My dad is in Cape Coral and I am highly concerned for him.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 05:07 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
I know this is probably a silly question- when a storm enters from the east, the area with the most intensity is considered to be the right side. When a storm is predicted to make landfall from the west, does the same still ring true- that the right side will have the most intensity? Or is it the left?
My dad is in Cape Coral and I am highly concerned for him.
Right-front quadrant will be the front and right of the cyclone's direction, no matter what direction it comes from. So, coming from the west, south of the center would have highest surge and wind, usually.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 05:20 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Recon is coming in very hot
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 06:00 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
|
Dear friends
Two questions, if I may:
1) how likely is it that the current track will not turn back north or, better, will even move south?
2) What does the Gale Low mean for this hurricane?
thank you!
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 06:25 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Folks, I would caution focusing on jogs. He's going to wobble. Look for trends.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 07:05 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
My dad is in Cape Coral and I am highly concerned for him.
Cape Coral could flood again like Ian. I'm watching it very closely as I have a property I am considering buying over there. If this S trend continues the wind speed for that area increases. Its currently high end TS, low end Cat 1 so nothing too bad as long as the structure is secure.
Quote:
1) how likely is it that the current track will not turn back north or, better, will even move south?
2) What does the Gale Low mean for this hurricane?
thank you!
1) looking less and less likely, however the cone still covers are large area, approximately 130 miles as the crow flies from the northern edge (Spring Hill) to the southern end (Cape Coral). But the models have been trending south as Milton continues to move further E without out getting far enough N. In fact as this point none of the main models show landfall N of Tampa Bay. And "better" is relative... I want this thing as far N as possible.
2) not much other then steering current effect both, so where one goes the other will follow.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 07:22 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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This. Would have been easy to miss - a 4:30 PM CDT Update:
“Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON...
Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 165 mph (270 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES”
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 11:19 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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11PM update has shifted landfall south of Sarasota. A few more corrections like this and we will be talking about Port Charlotte being in the core. The models are clustered between Venice and Ft Myers now
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 08 2024 11:28 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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I found this to be interesting in the NHC 11 pm ET discussion:
"In addition, a large region of
tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the
northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting
with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition."
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 01:06 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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In addition to more standard and traditional tropical cyclone models, for the next 24-48 hours or so, I'm going to share some others that I typically would not. The reason I am including these others falls into one or both of two categories:
1. It is expected that Milton will begin extra-tropical transition to a lesser or greater extent roughly about the time it is making landfall (just before, during, or just after), and as such, I will be sharing non-tropical models that are often better at handling sub-tropical systems.
2. Models that look to have a better initial grasp on Milton's present intensity and/or location and/or steering. These may include select ensemble members.
These models should be considered with the caveat that they are neither designed for TCs and/or the operational runs, but may have increasing utility going forward. Also, where Globals are concerned (e.g. GFS), we can ignore their forecast minimum pressure. Globals almost always underbid MSLP.
I will flag these posts with the header NON-STANDARD MODELS
NON-STANDARD MODELS
GFS Member #1 from 09/0z run valid Thursday morning (10th) at 4AM EDT (predawn)
GFS Member #3 from 09/0z run valid Wednesday evening 7PM EDT
GFS Member # 8 from 09/0z run valid Thursday the10th at 1AM EDT (middle of the night)
GFS Member #28 from 09/0z run valid Wednesday night 10PM EDT
NAM3K (Convection Allowing Model) from 09/0z run valid Thursday the 10th at 4AM EDT (predawn)
RRFSA (Convection Allowing Model) from 09/0z run valid Thursday the 10th at 12AM EDT (midnight tomorrow night)
Edit: Several models now show no complete transition to extra-tropical ("Post-Tropical" as it is now called with regard to TCs), until after Milton has crossed the state and entered the W Atlantic, and indeed with the 1AM CDT NHC Advisory, the official forecast now calls for Milton to remain a Tropical Cyclone well into the Atlantic. This may limit the usefulness of the two Convection Allowing Models shared above.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 05:40 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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A similar statement appears in the 0400 CDT update:
"Additionally, a large region of tropical
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal
boundary and beginning extratropical transition."
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 06:46 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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From the NHC discussion:
The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.
The models have been pointing S, the storms center has been E of forecast for awhile and is still E this AM. Granted the error is small, like 20 miles but it keeps adding up. Currently models have landfall between Sarasota and Punta Gorda with an exit from Coco Beach to Ft Pierce.
Last few frames show the eye filling in, hopefully this is the start of the weakening phase. Hard to believe we still have a Cat 5 out there with less then 24 hours to go.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 07:38 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
|
6z GFS is into bradenton, out by cape Canaveral
6z HAFS A Sarasota to Melbourne
6z HAFS-B Bradenton to Melbourne
6z HMON Bradenton to Tisuville
6z HWRF Tampa bay to New Smyrna Beach
0z Euro Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral
Milton will start to unravel and spread that cat 5 energy outward, big surge from eye to the south on landfall, rain heavy on north side over Florida, Tornado threat to the south, winds for everyone near the center, and more surge on the Atlantic side eye and north.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 07:41 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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6z HMON Bradenton to Titusville
| Ed Ardzinski |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 09:58 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
6z HMON Bradenton to Titusville
12 Z about the same
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 10:06 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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A close-up of surface wind speed and direction forecast with the 06z GFS would mean the greatest threat of very damaging to catastrophic surge most likely sets up between Naples and Sarasota, should this forecast hold exactly as advertised. Slight adjustments or even a wobble to the left could easily put Bradenton to Tampa back in play for the worst.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 10:41 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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SW eyewall is falling apart based on radar. NW quad weakening on IR satellite. Still a very strong and powerful core. Overall small field: hurricane force winds out 30-40, extreme Cat 4 winds in the Eastern eyewall, TS force winds out 100 miles again in all directions but stronger on the E side.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 11:23 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Over the last 2 hours, if you look at the center fixes the movement had been consistent at 35 degrees, confirmed by the 11am advisory. If you look at the last center determined by two aircraft passes at roughly 25.72 -84.43, Milton has taken a definite western shift/wobble or an average 30 degree track over the last 2 hours. This -5 degree shift if maintained and not a wobble would change landfall into Tampa Bay. This is the crazy task that the NHC is dealing with when this angle of approach and the angle of the shoreline are working against each other when looking for the landfall location!
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 11:28 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
SW eyewall is falling apart based on radar. NW quad weakening on IR satellite. .
I'm not disagreeing as the 11am discussion said the southern eyewall wasn't intact, but the storm is at the very edge of the capabilities of the radar so the west side may not be showing up well yet.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 11:30 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
This is the crazy task that the NHC is dealing with when this angle of approach and the angle of the shoreline are working against each other when looking for the landfall location!
Same thing happened in Charley. Move the center a few degrees and landfall changes by 40 miles. With a small but very intense storm this dramatically effects things on a local city-by-city level. Andrew missed me by 60 miles and the difference was nearly 100 mph worth of wind (70 vs 165) ...crazy.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 12:27 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Reminder of a trend we have noticed with Milton to track right-of-line during intensification phases, and then back to the left, or even left-of-forecast, during weakening phases. The last recon mission shows a more pronounced bend to the left again. Something to keep an eye out for.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 12:37 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Something to keep an eye out for
| Ed Ardzinski |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 01:18 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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SF WMD upgraded the radar - the track is back albeit different format
Looks like some of the worst weather is 0nshore now and headed this way (Norther Pinellas)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 01:50 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Today's 12z ECMWF Hi-Res Surface wind direction and speed valid for 11PM EDT tonight.
This model's 12z run advertises that the greatest threat for very dangerous to catastrophic storm surge could set up between Naples and Tampa Bay. Maximum sustained surface winds indicated by this model are likely understated by one or two categories as it is a global and not a hurricane model. Based on this model run, even a very slight track or wobble to the left of its guidance could put all of the Tampa region back at risk for the greatest surge threat.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 01:53 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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The track over the last ~6 hrs has averaged ~030 deg. The forecast track is headed about 060 deg from the current position @18:00 Z. Unless Milton makes a significant shift in its course now, the forecast track is going to have to shift north by a good bit, like right into Tampa Bay, or even north.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 01:58 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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A few of the recon fixes were just N of the official forecast track... see attached image
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 02:17 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
A few of the recon fixes were just N of the official forecast track... see attached image
Attached image?
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 02:23 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Attached image?
Also available here: https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/storms/AL142024_sat2.png not sure if this link is dynamic so it might change.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 04:08 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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NON-STANDARD MODEL
Today's 18Z Convection Allowing Model HRRR which can be useful for hybridizing TCs is showing the center going right into Tampa Bay about 10-11PM EDT tonight.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 04:14 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Could be a wobble and we know a turn ENE is coming but he needs to make a hard right to stay on the NHC cone. The 5PM update should provide some good data.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 04:33 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Could be a wobble and we know a turn ENE is coming but he needs to make a hard right to stay on the NHC cone.
It appears to be tracking to follow the northern cone edge. That would take it over St. Pete and Tampa Bay, with the big surge from Sarasota to Port Charlotte.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 04:45 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
NON-STANDARD MODEL
Today's 18Z Convection Allowing Model HRRR which can be useful for hybridizing TCs is showing the center going right into Tampa Bay about 10-11PM EDT tonight.
The 4pm location from NHC was 64 miles from Egmont Key (entrance to Tampa Bay) at a 43 degree bearing. At 17mph, Milton would be over at ~8pm, so the HRRR is way too slow. Also, the 4pm bearing for Milton was 35 degrees which will take him to St Pete Beach/Treasure Island if he maintains same course.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 04:56 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:Quote:
NON-STANDARD MODEL
Today's 18Z Convection Allowing Model HRRR which can be useful for hybridizing TCs is showing the center going right into Tampa Bay about 10-11PM EDT tonight.
The 4pm location from NHC was 64 miles from Egmont Key (entrance to Tampa Bay) at a 43 degree bearing. At 17mph, Milton would be over at ~8pm, so the HRRR is way too slow. Also, the 4pm bearing for Milton was 35 degrees which will take him to St Pete Beach/Treasure Island if he maintains same course.
There is an expected slowing down of Milton's forward speed which is already being seen in most recent recon penetrations and radar images. Whether or not that continues is TBD, but it is about what is anticipated by many models as Milton begins or preps for a turn more to the east.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 05:19 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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5PM update has Bradenton as landfall location, Milton's center is about 60 miles away from there. St Pete to Sarasota still in the cone of error.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 05:31 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
There is an expected slowing down of Milton's forward speed which is already being seen in most recent recon penetrations and radar images. Whether or not that continues is TBD, but it is about what is anticipated by many models as Milton begins or preps for a turn more to the east.
At 21:20 UTC, radar appears to show an expanded eye redeveloping east and even slightly south of the previous position. The whole system looks to have wobbled / shifted towards Sarasota. What Milton is giving up in intensity and forward speed it is making up for in size.
| Rhino7170 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 05:45 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
|
Quote:
Quote:
There is an expected slowing down of Milton's forward speed which is already being seen in most recent recon penetrations and radar images. Whether or not that continues is TBD, but it is about what is anticipated by many models as Milton begins or preps for a turn more to the east.
At 21:20 UTC, radar appears to show an expanded eye redeveloping east and even slightly south of the previous position. The whole system looks to have wobbled / shifted towards Sarasota. What Milton is giving up in intensity and forward speed it is making up for in size.
Where are you seing this wobble. I have not seen it, I find it hard to imagine much south of where the 5pm shows it going, as there just isn't time for that to happen.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 06:13 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Where are you seing this wobble. I have not seen it, I find it hard to imagine much south of where the 5pm shows it going, as there just isn't time for that to happen.
https://share.icloud.com/photos/0687bVrhGTj_nMerWF6I6_6HA
A short cut of the radar loop I have been watching is attached via the link.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 06:20 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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The eye is opening up as the storm expands, it appears to be moving ENE but the expansion makes it difficult to judge. Landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Venice, I don't see enough time to cover anymore distance. The center of pressure and the center of rotation may be different due to shear at this point. Its 50 miles to the coast with an eye that rough looking and 40 miles wide.
| TXEB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 06:25 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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It appears to be headed directly toward Siesta Key.
| Rhino7170 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 06:29 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
The eye is opening up as the storm expands, it appears to be moving ENE but the expansion makes it difficult to judge. Landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Venice, I don't see enough time to cover anymore distance. The center of pressure and the center of rotation may be different due to shear at this point. Its 50 miles to the coast with an eye that rough looking and 40 miles wide.
That looks way too far south to me, but it would be welcomed for us in Hillsborough. I just don't see it playing out that way as that is almost due east. What we saw was a wobble, not a track change. The center is still well off land, won't come ashore for another 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 hours. Nothion is still NE/ENE, so that takes the Venice/Siesta Key and most of Sarasota areas out of play unless there is another major wobble.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 07:18 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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There is a smaller rotation within the larger eye that is shifted NE, maybe due to land interaction. Given this is likely the true center official landfall could be between Sarasota and Bradenton. 16 miles to go.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 07:24 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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The recon center is now a touch to the right of center line, but maybe not as far as one would expect just looking at radar, given that the bottom half of Milton has taken on a lot of dry air.
| Rhino7170 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 08:13 PM |
|
Re: Milton Lounge
|
Quote:
The eye is opening up as the storm expands, it appears to be moving ENE but the expansion makes it difficult to judge. Landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Venice, I don't see enough time to cover anymore distance. The center of pressure and the center of rotation may be different due to shear at this point. Its 50 miles to the coast with an eye that rough looking and 40 miles wide.
I gotta give it to you, good call. I didn't expect such a sharp tirn right. Best for us in Hillsborough, feel bad for the people down in Sarasota County and south.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 08:34 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Lost power about 520pm when an estimated EF 2/3 long track tornado missed my house by about 3/4 mile! Heard it, felt it, spent 20 minutes in my laundry room with my wife and dog! First for me as a 54 y/o Florida native! Power just came back about 20 minutes ago! Crazy outbreak of over 50 tornadoes, many on the east coast, and most were EF2 or 3s which is unheard of in Florida!!!!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 08:37 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Quote:
Lost power about 520pm when an estimated EF 2/3 long track tornado missed my house by about 3/4 mile! Heard it, felt it, spent 20 minutes in my laundry room with my wife and dog! First for me as a 54 y/o Florida native! Power just came back about 20 minutes ago! Crazy outbreak of over 50 tornadoes, many on the east coast, and most were EF2 or 3s which is unheard of in Florida!!!!
Welcome back! Glad you're alright! I saw at least two that may even be higher than EF3 (4+) Crazy
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 08:39 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has
made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west
coast of Florida.
A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156
km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA C-MAN station in Venice. A
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing
Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117
km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 10:09 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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There are some incredible rainfall rates and amounts happening from roughly I4 north and the Turnpike west! I hope Milton doesn't slow too much!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 09 2024 11:39 PM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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0z Rapid Refresh has the center of Milton just exiting the state about 5am EDT, still producing quite a lot of strong and damaging winds well inland and likely a lot of surge on the east coast of Florida as it does. This model also shows a QPF for the area between 8pm Wednesday and 8pm Thursday that if anything is probably underdone. It looks like a lot of these numbers have already been realized on the west central Florida coast.
NON STANDARD MODEL
Convection Allowing RRFS A
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 10 2024 11:35 AM |
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Re: Milton Lounge
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Gotta hand to the NHC they really nailed this track forecast. I calculated the spread from furthest N to furthest S center line was less then 60 miles, that is a crazy narrow window to focus on given the geographic scale of FL's gulf coast. Track errors favored a more northern solution that didn't verify in the end as Milton's wiggled his way SE. Advisory #5 from 10AM Sunday was basically spot on. Even the very the first advisory for TD#14 was almost perfect for landfall aside from timing (it was 12 hours too early). However (in my non-scientific opinion) in typical NHC fashion they over stated wind speeds using flight level values which never translate to ground level. Data is hard to come by right now so I look forward to seeing the off-season report with official wind speeds. I believe this was closer to a Cat 2 as dry air thankfully weaken Milton. Of course the NHC tends to avoid downgrading storms just before landfall fearing people will ignore "weak" storms.
I believe this storms legacy will be the insane number of strong tornadoes that were produced in central and eastern FL counties. And the so-called "miss" of Tampa Bay... again, despite the majority of plots putting Sarasota in the bull's eye. However we were only 20 to 30 miles from a completely different outcome.
None of this is to take away from the damage Milton caused and those lives that been sadly effected, just the perspective of someone who tracks these things with a high level of interest.