| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 13 2025 01:09 PM |
|
Melissa Lounge
|
A wave that has recently entered the far eastern Tropical Atlantic well south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is more likely than not to track underneath a building area of high pressure left in the wake of a recurving Lorenzo and potentially track much farther west and develop in the Atlantic basin than most have done this year.
Conditions for development in the Main Development Region (MDR) this week and into next look markedly more favorable than they have throughout the bulk of this season, with abundant instability, rising motion, less dry air, and a forecast of less shear.
Despite it being mid-October, this year, like last, is trending back-loaded. If conditions for this wave play out as forecast, it could become a named storm approaching the Caribbean later this week into next. As such, we are starting a Lounge on this disturbance at this time.
No Invest tag yet and not yet mentioned in the NHC TWO
More details to come
This wave, now nearing the Caribbean, has been Invest tagged 98L today and the title has been updated accordingly.
2025-10-18 12:00 11.7N 49.9W 30 KTS
10-21-25 11:00AM EDT NHC Advisories have begun on Tropical Storm Melissa, and the title has been updated accordingly.
Ciel
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 13 2025 02:05 PM |
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
Thanks. Both main models seem to be picking up on this and developing it into a pretty strong storm. Plenty of time to see how that plays out.
| TanukiMario |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 13 2025 03:30 PM |
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
Thanks. I'll be following this one.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 15 2025 03:53 AM |
|
|
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
10-15-0z model runs out to 180 hours (7.5 days)
Models are increasingly holding off development of this wave until it just approaches, and more so, already well into, the Caribbean, sometime next week.
In sharing these, it is worth noting that 2025 has been a very challenging year for the models and forecasters, so much should be taken with a helping of salt.
Of all the models, the Google DeepMind GDM-FNV3 (Google Deep Mind's newest ensemble machine learning weather model, optimized for cyclones) has really been outstanding in terms of track and intensity for certain, and a cursory glance at how it has handled issues of TC genesis/no genesis, also a very good performance. At the other end, the GFS has spun out so many phantom Caribbean TCs (usually of the CAG variety) this year, it is seriously at risk of becoming the little boy that cried wolf for when one actually does form, eventually, some month, some year, maybe this, maybe next.
All in all, this is a strong signal for TC genesis in the Caribbean by the middle of next week. TCs that are in the Caribbean nearly always make a landfall, and often more than once. Additionally, this part of the basin has not yet been tapped of its potential, with very warm waters extending to exceptional depths.
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 15 2025 05:25 AM |
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
Mixed model support on this system, worth following, but odds and climatology are still stacked against anything developing, or if it does staying away from any major landfall events. Key indicators, consistency in ensembles (particularly euro and google deep mind) GFS and it's ensembles are showing lots of development potential, but the others aren't. Something may happen, but those in the Caribbean, Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula seem to be the most likely ones in the long range.
I.e. monitor, but not really concerned.
|
CFHC
|
| () |
| Wed Oct 15 2025 02:28 PM |
|
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
GFS puts it over Haiti as a major. Euro and Google put it into Central America then bends back over Florida from the west coast in about 2 weeks.
Not too concerned yet, but in monitor mode.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 15 2025 02:31 PM |
|
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
...
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 16 2025 11:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
Possibly the best model ensemble this year is the Google DeepMind, and it is not a bad one to give some credence to for as far out as 10 days.
Today's most recent 240 hour (10 day) outlook from the DeepMind continues to show a sizeable number of its ensemble members developing this wave in the Caribbean, with most of these then also showing a near collapse of steering currents, with the forecast future cyclone meandering about for a bit. Beyond ten days this model does show more of them moving the system, but beyond ten days is also pushing the capabilities even for this excellent model.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 17 2025 02:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: E ATL Wave
|
A collection of 10/17/0z globals out at 168 hours (a week out) from initialization strongly suggests development is possible if not likely in the Caribbean, with earlier development favoring a stronger-sooner cyclone that runs into the eastern Greater Antilles, heading, presumably, out to sea, whereas a delayed-weaker system might head for the western Caribbean, ultimately of concern for other locations.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 19 2025 02:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Tonight's 0z hurricane models seem to be losing the vortex, if they even capture one. This could be one of the rare times where the globals do a better job, at least for now. All models should perform much better once recon missions begin, but so far, none have been tasked.
Looking at tonight's 0z "Big Three" globals ten days out highlights the unanimity of the globals that 98 will develop once in the Caribbean. From there, where it goes, is far less certain. Should 98L find itself in the central to western Caribbean mid/late next week, steering currents could even collapse.
10/19/0z EURO, CANADIAN, AMERICAN out to 240 hours
|
CFHC
|
| () |
| Mon Oct 20 2025 10:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
System looks impressive on satellite this morning, but not really fully organized. This setup has the potential for the low level area outrunning the convection to the west, and you wind up with a huge convective area moving to the north without a low center. With the models (Still) split on how this winds up I think that's fairly likely.
Right now the lower level area is on the west end of the convection, not really aligned, but not completely out of the way. recon will help determine it when that heads out tomorrow.
However, not before it actually develops, and those in the Caribbean would see impacts regardless.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 20 2025 01:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
We now have several recon missions to look forward to that have been tasked. Data assimilation has been a little wanting with this wave, especially considering we have not had a single recon mission into it yet. Its track across the islands did add some extra information as to its structure we did not have before, but all in all, I do not have a high level of confidence in the models with what they have had to work with thus far. This is a tricky set up in a tricky year, also with the introduction of several new models, some better than others, but also with drawbacks.
Going with what we have to work with so far, which isn't all that much compared to the usual, I am still going to toss out my personal best guess for 98L's lifetime maximum intensity, something I try to do as a little academic exercise with systems likely to impact land. This is not to forecast their maximum intensity at landfall, however.
Best guess for 98L's lifetime maximum intensity
Disturbance/No-TC (Current status) 1%
Tropical Depression <39 MPH 2%
Tropical Storm 40-50 MPH 3%
Mid/High-end Tropical Storm 60-70 MPH 10%
Cat 1 Hurricane 12%
Cat 2 Hurricane 16%
Cat 3 Hurricane 21%
Cat 4 Hurricane 22%
Cat 5 Hurricane 13%
In summary, I think the chance 98L becomes a Tropical Cyclone is 99%, a Hurricane 84%, a Major Hurricane 56%
This opinion is of lower than usual confidence. Limiting factors to higher confidence: Potential land interaction/s, nearby dry air, mis-analyzed shear, lack of recon missions. Will update later after flights.
| TanukiMario |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 20 2025 04:54 PM |
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Now that the GFS and the ECMWF are coming closer in agreement over the north then northeast turn into the Atlantic, it would seem the most likely scenario is through Cuba and FL is off the hook? I'll admit last week I was getting Hurricane David vibes... especially since I have a trip to the DR planned during the forecast window.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 20 2025 07:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Quote:
Now that the GFS and the ECMWF are coming closer in agreement over the north then northeast turn into the Atlantic, it would seem the most likely scenario is through Cuba and FL is off the hook? I'll admit last week I was getting Hurricane David vibes... especially since I have a trip to the DR planned during the forecast window.
Personally, I'm not confident in model forecast tracks given the propensity for the LLC to want to establish itself a bit south, at least so far, and that we have not had a single recon mission in there yet. Track forecast should become more trustworthy after tomorrow (after data from multiple missions comes in). If 98L/Melissa-to-be misses the first trof exit out (E Cuba/DR/PR), there's that very legitimate risk that it lollygags around in the western Caribbean, and fine-turning how the next exit window turns out, this far out, is just too uncertain. Extra days delay is more time for steering currents to change
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 20 2025 09:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Now that hurricane models and intensity models are no longer hallucinating the demise of 98L and are actively expecting a coherent vortex, they are starting to become more reliable. The most recent 0z runs out are way up from where they were just 24-48 hours ago, when many saw nothing. Most now foresee a hurricane.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Oct 20 2025 11:41 PM |
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
The system's low level wave axis is still too elongated, recon tomorrow will help determine what the state of 98L is.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Looking at the Google AI ensembles, both the most recent FNV3 and GENC suites have eased up on crossing Hispaniola, with several more members stalling, then looping back around towards the west. GENCs deepen slower overall than the FNV3s, but this can probably be explained by the fact that the FNV3 is specifically designed to forecast tropical cyclones, whereas GENC is a general purpose weather model.
Both 18z AI model members that take 98/Melissa back towards the west largely ramp her up into a Major, except for some of the early landfalls.
18z FNV3
18z GENC
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Oct 21 2025 07:07 AM |
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Best to do nwcasting, the system is beginning to consolidate a center, but trough axis is still a bit elongated and sticks from the tip of Venezeula up to north of Aruba, where that area is likely to be the ultimate center. Models do not have a good feel for the setup right now, I think the GFS is too far off where the center is.
Counter to development is a pretty strong jet, which could expose the center. (Shear) And also mid level dry air to the west of it. So it's at least capped in the near term.
Recon is sorely needed here.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 21 2025 03:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Recon has found Melissa a little south of forecast. Additionally, the LLC and MLC are quite unaligned. Rapid development is likely to be slow early on, but the Caribbean is a virtual powder keg for when the cyclone becomes better organized, especially once it develops an inner core, as it appears likely to do.
Most models have shifted southwest today. Further shifts southwest, at least in the near term, look very possible. If verified, this would probably keep the cyclone in a favorable environment for longer, probably increasing the odds of Melissa becoming Cat 4 or Cat 5, and also potentially exacerbating flooding for impacted islands.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 21 2025 04:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
A loop back or effective drift/meandering into the western Caribbean early next week could be extraordinarily supportive of a high-end Major (Sub 930mb, possibly even sub 900).
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 22 2025 08:21 AM |
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Recon is finding the center relatively dry which should keep it from gaining much today. It's mostly a waiting game, Jamaica and points east of wherever the center winds up are going to see the most impacts. Bahamas, Berumda will also want to keep watch once Melissa begins to move, which may not be for a good while (days). I am not concerned for Florida at all for any direct impacts.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 22 2025 08:54 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Recon, which is still in Melissa, has provided very useful information, much of which is now fed into models and official forecasts.
There are generally two model camps with regard to the cyclone's future:
1. More rapid near-term development/deeper cyclone, favoring a track towards/near/roughly or directly across Hispaniola, and out-to-sea.
2. Slower near-term development/shallower cyclone, favoring a track that misses the first exit, and hooks w or even wsw towards Nicaragua/Honduras, and explosively develops into a history-making-level Major.
This morning's two recon missions suggest that a third camp may emerge in subsequent runs, as the center has reformed northeast of its prior location, into very deep convection. Recon passes have found that pressures have fallen to about 1001mb, with winds, so far, not responding, but likely to do so.
Melissa's forecast is extraordinarily tricky, with several opportunities to escape the Caribbean, but even more opportunities to meander, stall, and even drift southwest. This far greater than usual uncertainty was reflected in the 5AM NHC Advisory
Quote:
this should be considered an extremely uncertain forecast, and significant changes could be required
Also, the US East coast is not off the hook, longer-term.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 22 2025 09:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Now that we have invaluable recon data to consider, I am updating my 98L (now Melissa) lifetime maximum intensity best guesses. This is not a forecast for Melissa's intensity at landfall/s.
50 MPH Tropical Storm (Current state): Close to 0%
60-70 MPH mid/high-end Tropical Storm: 1%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 3%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 5%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 14%
130-140 MPH Cat 4 Hurricane: 17%
150-155 MPH High-End Cat 4: 19%
160-170 MPH Cat 5: 20%
175-200 MPH Cat 5: 19%
Over 200 MPH Cat 5: 2%
In summary: Current state: Nearly 0%. Odds of becoming a hurricane of any category: 99%. Odds of becoming a Major Hurricane 91%. Odds of becoming a Cat 5: 41%
This is all based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which is to say, just wind. Rainfall, flooding, mudslides and surge from Melissa could become an even greater concern.
| Owlguin |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 22 2025 01:52 PM |
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Looks like the center is being exposed again?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 22 2025 04:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
As models have had more and more data to digest and we have had real eyes on the ground, so to speak, here are today's 12z DeepMind FNV3 ensembles out to 240 hours (10 days), as well as the hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B) out to the end of their runs (126 hours).
FNV3 Ensemble members out to 240 hours
HWRF for Monday Oct 27 18z
HMON for Monday Oct 27 18z
HAFS-A for Monday Oct 27 18z
HAFS-B for Monday Oct 27 18z
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 23 2025 08:00 AM |
|
Re: 98L Lounge
|
Another day of highly sheared system, it's on the edge of getting pushed up like the GFS is showing, but ultimately won't head that way and go along the track. How intense it gets is only limited by the shape it gets in. Tomorrow or so that shear starts to let up, so it'll probably slowly strengthen at first and ramp up when the shear is gone and the outflow gets ventilated by it instead. UKMet keeps it weak, though. Models probably will fluctuate some more, and the tTrack is still variant, but the NHC's is probably the best weighted.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 24 2025 07:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Melissa is not done disobeying forecast, apparently. Potentially preparing to enter RI overnight, and now a bit west of forecast.
Fine-turning the next few days is academic, to a point. The big picture is of a catastrophic tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, near-term, that also could track across the Bahamas into the eastern seaboard and/or eastern Canada, long-term. Sometimes these granular near-term twists and turns will ultimately have outsized influence on the longer-term track and intensity, however.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 24 2025 09:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Back in 2016 Ukmet was the outlier west, gfs east with hurricane Mathew euro middle. Then they all swinged west once movement began, the trough didFriday. Not dig as strong and the ridging was stronger.
12z Ukmet still very much further west. Still down in northwest carribean friday.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 25 2025 11:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
VDM 19 10-25-25-0301z
For intents and purposes, over the past few hours Melissa has been drifting southwest, although the 11PM NHC Advisory holds her track as westbound.
The longer Melissa tracks southwest, potentially the higher upside to her wind and downside to her minimum pressure, as conditions are even more favorable to the southwest of her presently already exceptionally favorable location for RI.
While this is not officially forecast and unlikely to persist for much longer, it is worth keeping an eye on. Such a development has been something I've considered possible for a while.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 26 2025 07:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Some good news, at least for the eastern seaboard, with last night's 0z ensembles from GFS, ECMWF and Google's DeepMind: Not a single ensemble member out of well over 100 now suggests a bend back towards New England/Canada is even remotely possible.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 26 2025 04:44 PM |
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
I know Mellisa is far from the Orlando area and is far from expexted to reach here, but are we currently experiecing a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) here at 16:38 EDT on 10/26/2025?
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 27 2025 07:08 PM |
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
It's unfortunate that this isn't just going to be a fish spinner. Jamaica is getting ready to be smashed. I have friends who live in Montego Bay who report they're being pushed by the police to leave East for Kingston or even farther if possible. Some cellular towers have gone down, but the cellular service is still mostly up.
They're prepared for an expected N N/W change going pretty much right over their house. Even with all the shear, it still maintains a pretty damn good structure. Compact with a tiny eye is sort of lucky, I guess.
| TanukiMario |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Oct 27 2025 08:24 PM |
| Attachment |
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
This post may not be of the forecasting nature, but if I can help just one person maybe its worth it:
Having been on the ground during Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico a word of advice to any Jamaicans who may be reading this:
I know you can't leave, its an island, but you can probably find friends and family with a home with a concrete roof and walls. Go there. Find an interior room. Make sure it isn't in a low lying area (places that don't usually flood will flood).
Get canned food and water now - don't think you can wait until after. Don't forget to get your meds. Have a backup plan if you rely on meds that need to be refrigerated.
The worst part is afterwards. No power means ATMs don't work. Groceries can only take cash and many people will hoard. Have some cash on hand and food and water for not just a couple of days, but a couple of weeks (It's an island). So get your food and water now, don't wait until the cupboard is bare. Fill your propane tank and fill your car.
The first day or two everyone is our helping clear debris and being good citizens. By about day five people start to fend for themselves. No comms: Cell towers that haven't fallen have run out of fuel for their generators. It's hot and humid and people are cranky, there isn't cash and you can't run credit cards (no power or comms) so people will start to misbehave. If you have fuel and a generator or other supplies, don't flaunt them. Drive sparingly, save fuel.
It will be slow getting ports back up and running, so supplies will be slow to arrive (it's an island). Prepare for many weeks of no power. Many weeks (not days). Possibly a lack of running water as well. Don't wade into standing water (My house didn't flood, but I got a skin infection walking to my house because sewage eventually mixes with the standing rainwater).
I know this sounds kinda end of times-ish but modern people don't realize how dependent we are on tech (electricity, communications, refrigeration, ATMs and card terminals) and its really hard to get basic needs met unless you have a core group of friends and family, especially for people with special needs.
Good luck.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 27 2025 09:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
I would only add that you must be prepared to be the only one who can help you. That's one of the most important forecasts of them all.
If there is one thing that is the absolute same thing said during every single massive landfall, it is that the people always say, "But there's nobody here helping, there's no food, there's no clean water, (insert terrible surprise you never considered) etc, etc". Be ready for you to take care of you.
As for Melissa, there's the slowdown and slow turn to the north we expected. Hopefully, it doesn't sit spinning in place because large parts are already hitting the S/SW of Jamaica.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 28 2025 11:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Recon was a little bit slow to get back into Melissa prior to the start of landfall, but was able to get a drop in the south eyewall, which is *not* the Right Front Quadrant, of 252 MPH at 250 meters. h/t Dr. Greg Postel on X
This would usually suggest the RFQ could easily be peaking out even stronger than that.
Making landfall as what could very well be a 190-210 MPH hurricane (certain to get a thorough post-season analysis), with less island to cross in western Jamaica, does not bode well for locations ahead: Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda.
This could be the most intense hurricane Guantanamo Bay, Cuba has experienced.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 28 2025 04:40 PM |
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
Quote:
Compact with a tiny eye is sort of lucky, I guess.
Similar to Andrew, your dealing with a 30 mile wide EF-4 tornado. Any location that experiences the eyewall will be "erased"
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 28 2025 04:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Melissa Lounge
|
This post aged very well, unfortunately. Rapid intensification for #Melissa was probably easier to predict in this case than some because of the extremely favorable large-scale conditions. But it's also worth noting that some of our newer models were also hinting at a historical… https://t.co/gfgEIM7LhN pic.twitter.com/rFmNsZPFwW
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) October 28, 2025