MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue May 19 2026 09:10 PM |
Long Range 2026
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Since models are heading out to June, there's a bit of signal toward the west Gulf, however, majority of the signal is in the Eastern Pacific, so it's more likely that the East Pacific near the south of Mexico would have development than the Atlantic. Something sloppy off the coast of Carolina is also possible, but development is unlikely either way.
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CFHC
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| Wed May 20 2026 04:06 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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There has been some talk of something forming in the Atlantic near June 1st, but I just don't see it. However something is fairly possible around the in the East Pacific. It could be rainy near Florida the first week of June, but I don't believe anything will develop there.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri May 22 2026 07:11 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Euro and GFShinting at a wet weekend next week, especially south Florida. Tropical Development still unlikely, but could briefly in the Atlantic as it moves out to sea. Caribbean jet is strong this year, so development is likely to be down in general.
De
| scottsvb |
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| Sun May 24 2026 08:01 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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GFS Always has feedback errors after 84 hours out in the tropics by wanting to form early season Tropical Storms out of T-Storm clusters it blows up in May-Early June.
I would stick with Euro for 90% of June until we get into later July
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CFHC
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| Tue May 26 2026 09:05 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Still nothing really new going into the first week or so of the hurricane season. Generally wet pattern in Fl/SE, but nothing likely to organize into a tropical system.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed May 27 2026 01:37 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Starting to see more of a model convergence, including the highly-skilled AI models, on an increasing chance for development later next week, around Th/Fr June 4/5 +/-, in the Gulf. Nothing concrete yet, just a stronger signal for potential development. Among operational runs, the GFS, as per usual, is all alone in going gangbusters. There are a few ensemble members of other models that are very bullish, but for now at least, these also remain outliers.
For the early part of the upcoming hurricane season, there should not be much, if any, influence from the forecast developing El Niño. Also, waters in the Caribbean and Gulf are sufficiently warm and an enhanced region of favorable 200hPa velocity potential anomalies, possibly coupled with an MJO pulse, could be in place around this time.
Below: Negative anomalies (Shaded in green/blue) indicate upper-level divergence and rising air.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed May 27 2026 02:20 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed May 27 2026 06:42 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Lounge time:
One thing to watch this year is the old Canadian (Also known as the Gem or CMC Model) received some pretty significant updates this week, including some AI related interpolation or nudging to help it along. So it's worth monitoring to see how it does.
The overnight (oz) GFS runs are a bit crazy, inc
Example, here a hurricane making landfall near Venice/Sarasota County a week from friday on the 0z run.
Countered by nothing on the euro.but some rain
The new Canadian mention, just shows rain near Louisiana from it
6z run of the GFS is still going, but is slower around the same period (still in the gulf)
Usually the fake storm behavior in the GFS winds up either dissipating or pushing the storm out further and further in time.
AI models do not pick up anything from this.
Bottom line, still very unlikely anything develops, but the rain and energy is there for a window for something to possibly try to get going (and probably fail to get going) sometime later next week.
The pattern of higher chance of rain in Florida will be starting this weekend.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu May 28 2026 08:00 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Overnight gfs has backed off on the Atlantic side and the ensembles (ai includes) aren't very enthuisastic about it, however East Pacific still has more activity, so for tropical development look there.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 03 2026 06:54 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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0z euro is showing an east pacific crossover storm in 2 weeks. Notable since the euro typically doesn't do this, something to monitor trends for at least.
This one starts in the east pacific here:
Still unlikely, but notable it's not the GFS.
The east pacific has Amanda now, probably a second one over the weekend, GFS doing gfs things, but Euro wants a Pacific to Atlantic crossover around a week and a half, which is probably the only real shot for development in the Atlantic, and even that's unlikely as all get out.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 03 2026 04:18 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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12z euro also showing crossover, but spends more time over land so thus weaker. Still probably the place to watch next week, although still unlikely anything develops.
E
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jun 04 2026 07:26 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Overnight model runs still showing more energy passing over from the east pacific, but chances are still very low anything happens basically because much of the Gulf (particularly the eastern side) is likely high on windshear. While there's a small chance next week, development is still very unlikely.
Note this is using some the new site features to be able to paste images and then draw lines/arrows and inject text over them. ^
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Jun 04 2026 02:24 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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I've become very suspicious of any even medium-range GFS forecasts. There are a number of reasons for this that I won't go into here, but long and short of it, generally speaking, the GFS has become one of the last models I look to for anything more than a very broad-brush of future conditions. That said, last week's 5/27/0z run out to today arguably performed better than its competitors. While a closed circulation still looks to be a good bit more elevated than at the 925mb level predicted, it wasn't a totally outlandish modeled outcome, and as mentioned, seemed to outperform the EURO, EURO AI, GFS AI and CANADIAN runs from the same time.
Below: GFS 5/27/0z for 6/4/12z
Below: Actual 6/4/18z
Something I'll be keeping in mind as the current season continues.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jun 04 2026 08:51 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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18z ensembles a little more picking up on it, but still need to see if this continues or not, conditions aren't great in the Gulf so everything would have to align just right to get there.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jun 05 2026 07:08 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Deep mind dropped a lot of the ensemble members, except for one. Euro has a lot more, although mostly weak. Follows the pattern of may be something trying to form then, but unlikely to, or most likely stays weak. Nothing concerning, and development still seems like a long shot.
6Z Google Deep mind ensembles
Based on the ensemble maybe something weakish in the gulf in a week and a half, splitting the difference it winds up somewhere in the Panhandle.
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CFHC
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| Fri Jun 05 2026 04:13 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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12z Euro has backed off a bit, although takes the energy into the west gulf and into Texas.
One of 12z Google Deep Mind ensembles shows it over florida and then close to Wilmington, NC
Euro ensembles are further east of the operational.
All mostly very weak with 1/2 exceptions. Continues the idea that there may be something to watch late next week, even if weak. Still not a great chance for development.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 07 2026 09:22 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Most of the models have backed off since Friday, still basic outside chance of something weak forming in the Gulf, but still very unlikely. Doubt the NHC even puts a yellow area up or it.
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CFHC
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| Mon Jun 08 2026 03:34 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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East Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina may cross over briefly into the Bay of Campeche, but probably not regain strength, it'll wind up being into Mexico. Potential for flooding rainfall is about it.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 08 2026 04:15 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Operational runs of our traditional models, along with their AI versions, are starting to focus on the potential for the Central American Gyre to spill out a vort lobe ~ brand- new and/or the remnants of East Pac Boris and/or Chrstina ~ into the Bay of Campeche, later in the current week, and suggest that the lobe could become better defined while in the western Gulf.
This is a very favored mechanism and location for tropical cyclone genesis early in a season, but even so, the setup often results in nothing more than a stretched out area of closed low pressure that at best gets classified as a T.D. Regardless of development, it could potentially bring additional heavy rains to portions of Texas that are already experiencing some isolated to scattered flooding and are susceptible. Additionally, longer-range runs of ensembles ~ sometimes inc a couple of the excellent Google DeepMind ensembles ~ do hint at the possibility of the forecast disturbance lingering or drifting back out over the northwestern Gulf and acting as a focus for TC genesis up there heading into next week.
My take this far in advance is that it is probably fair to say that the western Gulf has a 15% chance of TC development over the next 5-10 days. At this time, this is both too low and/or too far into the future for NHC to introduce a yellow zone. However, the western Gulf remains an area to keep eyes on.
| cieldumort |
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| Tue Jun 09 2026 01:43 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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The 700mb relative vorticity loop from today's 0z GDPS ("Canadian") models a clear picture of this idea of taking a vort spinning out of a gyre w/remnants of Boris+Cristina into the extreme southwestern Gulf, then looping the conglomerated vort across eastern Mexico, to get drawn up by a passing trof, to then ultimately re-enter the Gulf along the Texas coast over mid-late next week. A somewhat plausible forecast, also supported off and on by a few runs of other global numerical weather prediction models, a few of their ensembles, plus a couple of the DeepMind ensemble members.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 09 2026 08:18 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Models generally not enthusiastic still for next week, exception being the 18z ensembles from google's deep mind model
Generally still fairly unlikely anything develops.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 23 2026 07:06 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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There's nothing too concerning on the long range. Remote possibility something forms after leaving the Carolina coast around June 29th, then looping back over Florida around July 1st and into the Gulf, but currently unlikely. (GFS keeps it weak). Google's deep mind has a few ensembles that develop it, however.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 24 2026 07:19 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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0z GFS Showed it in the west Gulf, 6z GFS backed off, the google deep mind still has something trying to form off Florida then moving over Florida (some into the Gulf)
]
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CFHC
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| Wed Jun 24 2026 03:27 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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12z Deep mind
112z Euro ensembles
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CFHC
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| Mon Jun 29 2026 09:37 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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The system offshore of NC is still around 10%, which seems accurate, the deep mind still shows 1/2 members developing it, but plenty aren't. It's setting up to be probably a fairly small area of rain, which won't help the heat wave all that much this week.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Jul 15 2026 03:01 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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There are two very slim chance areas worth keeping an eye out on, the first simply because it is so close to home, the second for a very slim and outside chance of a long-tracker ~ that could be nothing more than a fish spinner even if it does get lucky and develops ~ but may become something to watch, at any rate.
1) Homegrown type feature as troughing digs into the eastern Gulf
2) Stout early season tropical wave presently in the far eastern Atlantic
No bid from NHC on either area, yet, and there may never be. Slim odds, but worthy of general lounge mentions.
| vpbob21 |
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| Thu Jul 30 2026 10:15 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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GFS and ECMWF try to develop a system south of Bermuda in about a week. It tracks west to a couple hundred miles off the Outer Banks, then recurves out to sea. Looks like no real threat, although the GFS gets it fairly close to SE Canada.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 04 2026 08:34 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Back, nothing really going on in the Atlantic this week or next it seems. El Nino, Shear, etc, are still dominant, although this is the time of year to watch the waves to see if anything slips through.
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CFHC
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| Wed Aug 05 2026 09:37 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Longer range has a bit of MDR activity, and there's a wave north (likely too hostile for development there)
The modeling does suggest something later though. Euro ai, also shows something in the MDR, bottom line, nothing concerning me yet.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 05 2026 11:38 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Hawaii could be closely watching another approach by this time next week.
These AI runs are out to 10 days (240 hours) from 06z today.
| cieldumort |
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| Sun Aug 09 2026 04:19 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Now to 180 hours out from 8/9/0z. Approaches to the south of the islands are often of particular concern in case they track just enough to the right (to the north) as to place more of the Hawaiian islands within what is often the more potent side of a tropical cyclone, while also maintaining a track that tends to keep the system fueled over much warmer waters.
| cieldumort |
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| Sun Aug 09 2026 12:38 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Conditions for development aren't looking particularly favorable for the two waves out in the far eastern Atlantic to central Atlantic over the coming week. Model support does exist for TC genesis, however, with only a short-lived and weaker cyclone/s that avoids most land the more likely outcome/s even among runs that develop one or both of them.
Classic strong El Niño outcomes
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 19 2026 06:43 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Wave out in the Atlantic is the next one up for potential development, but the overall state is pretty hostile to development, a lot depends on if it finds a hole in the shear, with a split between the GFS and Euro. IT has to actually survive the el nino induced tutt, to make it here, but if it does it's likely to recurve, with Bermuda a potential area of concern. The Caribbean just needs to monitor to see if anything happens. Overall, again, it's unlikely anything significant develops, but it is something to watch.
euro ensemble
Deep mind:
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Aug 20 2026 12:51 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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VP200 outlook for October (image credit: Ben Noll). This would be a record-setting Walker cell anomaly that could shoot central and east Pac thunderstorm and tropical cyclone activity to the moon, while simultaneously shutting the door just about completely in the western Pacific, as well as giving the Atlantic MDR even more anomalously high levels of air subsidence. While this suggests air will be rising healthily across the Gulf, much of this region could often find itself under higher-than-normal shear. Nonetheless, the potential for development close to home in October still looks to be on the table, if for no other reasons than Central American Gyre and/or spill-over activity.
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Aug 20 2026 02:09 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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August 20th is generally regarded as the unofficial "real" start date of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, when tropical waves typically find themselves crossing the Main Development Region of the Atlantic to become long-track cyclones.
Presenting: August 20, 2026 7-Day Outlook
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 21 2026 06:27 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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El nino impact is still very obvious even in the deep mind model, where the overload of tracks from a few days ago has whittled down dramatically, and the GFS is not seeing much. There may be a short lived storm , but still the Atlantic basin is still generally suppressed from development in late August.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 22 2026 10:26 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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This is going here since it's not necessarily the wave in the east,
deep mind vs
Euro ensembles
95L is the yellow area southeast of Bermuda. which shows up better on the euro ensembles.
In short something to watch if el nino doesn't kill it dead first.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 23 2026 12:09 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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12z GFS is still running but so far it maintains the "Stronger" set from the 6z, which seems a little far fetched, but not impossible, for the setup.
12z icon is a bit stronger too, although likely to be pulled up and out where it's at there.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 23 2026 09:26 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Only the deep mind ensemble model (and not many of them) shows much with the wave coming off Africa now. Most models keep it weak or strengthen it and recurve out sooner.
Euro vs deep mind is a good indicator of the swing.
First it actually has to survive the crossing of the Atlantic, which isn't great odds.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 24 2026 07:46 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Overnight deep mind has dropped off since earlier yesterday
Euro is recurving it mostly
Still unlikely to develop this week, and most of the ensembles still keep it weak even beyond then, a handful above do strengthen it later. GFS, with it developing Wednesday, is pretty unlikely.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 31 2026 07:23 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Beyond TD#5 and Dolly there's not much to discuss in the Atlantic. East of Florida is an interesting convective area, but no vorticity to speak of, so that won't develop. Outside of that Nothing really in the open Atlantic, and anything new probably would come from something short fused and close by like TD#5/97L which may get to a strong tropical storm. North Atlantic may also have another short lived system. Getting any hurricanes this year continues to be a struggle in the Atlantic. On the pacific side, no such problem exists. Just comparing the overall conditions between the two basins shows the striking difference.
Atlantic:
East Pacific:
]The non-AI models are significantly more east on the right most east pacific system (EP95) which means it could potentially impact Tijuana/Baja or Southern California. But that's incredibly unlikely also.
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Sep 03 2026 04:34 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Western tropical Atlantic/Caribbean (10-20°N, 85-50°W) vertical wind shear continues to shatter previous records, with average shear in the western Atlantic for the past 30 days >3 kt stronger than any other year in the global satellite era (since 1979). #ElNino pic.twitter.com/KM0elPofXY
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 3, 2026
| cieldumort |
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| Tue Sep 08 2026 12:34 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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A good seasonal model this year could be created using insects. The Atlantic is crickets.
The next two weeks out (360 hours from time stamp initialization) from both the DeepMind and EURO AI ensembles imply a roughly 10% chance of a named storm in the Atlantic and perhaps at best a 20% chance of at least one unnamed TD.
Atlantic basin 2026 peak hurricane season
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Sep 10 2026 01:53 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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I'm pretty sure this isn't what those calling for an above average Atlantic season this year had in mind for an ACE in the hole
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 10 2026 07:17 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Today is September 10th, historically the peak of hurricane season, and nothing in the Atlantic right now. Modeling is sparse except for a likely faux Venezuela feedback storm (classic quirk of the current version of the GFS that creates phantom storms in this area of the Caribbean as a result of mathematically feedback caused by the mountains and Lake Maracaibo ) showing up on the GFS and making landfall in Florida on sep 21st..
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 16 2026 07:00 AM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Stable air in the Atlantic continues to be the name of the game. 30% area is unlikely to get going, and it's getting more likely that September will end without a named storm. Although east pacific remains active, more of a chance something from there crosses over than actually forms in the Atlantic.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Sep 16 2026 07:28 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Models are responding in a big way today to a forecast favorable upswing in rising air across the Atlantic basin associated with a favorable MJO. SSTs are supportive to very supportive basin-wide, dust is low to record low and if the pulse verifies it could all be enough to overcome the background stable state as well as reduce shear. The last ten days or so of the month probably have at least a 66% chance of one, and at least a 33% chance of two named storms in the Atlantic, IMHO.
Below: The most recent version of the Google DeepMind ensembles, WNv3 (WeatherNext 3)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 02 2026 10:02 PM |
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Re: Long Range 2026
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Looking at the current setup and shear situation it's now better than 50/50 odds we'll end the season without a hurricane in the Atlantic.