| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 24 2026 10:58 AM |
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Dolly Lounge
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A robust tropical wave that has just rolled into the far eastern Atlantic from western Africa is being closely monitored by NHC for development potential. Conditions for development in the Tropical Atlantic extending out to western Africa are less hostile than they had been over the prior days during the month of August, and it seems like this one has a better chance. Model support is pretty warm overall, but there has been some back and forth, and it is not yet entirely clear that the low several runs want to develop are in fact this exact disturbance.
Considering that this wave is expected to track further west under high pressure to its north, could perhaps impact some land in the very extended range, and is more likely than not to become a named storm, we are starting a Lounge on it at this time. There is not yet an Invest tag, but this should be assigned any day now. NHC odds are 60% within 5 days for tropical cyclogenesis.
The robust wave we have been monitoring has been Invest-tagged this afternoon, 96L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
2026-08-24 18:00 11.0N 18.5W 20 KTS
Invest 96L has become a tropical cyclone this morning, 8/27/26, and with winds already at tropical storm force, Dolly has formed. The title has been updated accordingly.
Ciel
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 24 2026 11:19 AM |
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Re: Robust New Tropical Wave Invest TBD
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There is still quite a lot of dry, dusty air out there today. Some forecasts suggest that this wave should be tracking west while cocooned from most of it and/or that the amount of dry, dusty air will subside basin-wide this week.
| cieldumort |
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| Mon Aug 24 2026 11:24 AM |
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Re: Robust New Tropical Wave Invest TBD
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The most recent full 1,000 member run of Google's DeepMind FNV3 advertises only a 15% chance of becoming a named storm, and if it does, it would favor recurving prior to a direct hit on land.
Image/graphic credit: TC-ATLAS
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 24 2026 08:50 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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18z FNV3 out to 180 hours - Only a handful of members ramp up to at least 34 knots
CFHC
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| Tue Aug 25 2026 09:39 AM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Google's deep mind is less enthusiastic about 96L this morning, but it's looking decent on satellite and the vorticity charts, so it may develop into something (70%) is pretty good right now.
The GFS is the most agressive, the deep mind is one of the weaker ones (only a few even develop it),
Euro doesn't develop 96L at all, some ofthe ensembles do, but not the majority.
Overall if it develops strongly, it'll likely turn out to east of Bermuda, if it stays weaker it may/may not develop later, Bermuda needs to watch. It's extremely Unlikely to get to the Caribbean or US, but not impossible.
| cieldumort |
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| Tue Aug 25 2026 12:33 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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The most recent (Google) FNV3 ensembles advertise about a 4% chance 96L becomes a TD and close to 0% chance of getting a name over the next five days.
96L appeared to have a tight LLC overnight that has since fall apart. Convection never really organized around the fleeting well-defined surface circulation center and convection has been displaced even further to the south-southwest. Dry, stable air abounds to its north.
| cieldumort |
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| Tue Aug 25 2026 12:45 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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The most recent old-school models (Classic EURO, Classic GFS, NAV, UKM) develop 96L into at least a depression. This experimental genesis product assigns an 89% chance for that.
It is worth highlighting that these models are becoming antiquated, and the GFS, in particular, has performed astonishingly poor when it comes to TC formation, strength and track over the past year or so.
| cieldumort |
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| Tue Aug 25 2026 01:27 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Looking at some of the conditions ahead for 96L, vertical instability in the Tropical Atlantic is starting to head up with climatology, but remains well below normal.
Area-wide sea level pressures remain above normal.
However, area-wide, shear is starting to approach normally climatologically favorable levels
In addition, thus far the cocoon of less dry to even moist air is holding. The system has a window of perhaps two or three days to pull it together, but after that, conditions for genesis may prove too difficult. Overnight tonight through tomorrow night may be the best window, tho genesis could occur as soon as later today. I think FNV3 is being far too bearish on its prospects, whereas GFS is far too bullish. Probably give this one close to a coin toss of forming, personally. If it develops and stays weak enough to travel further west, those in the Antilles may be at some risk later this weekend and/or into next week.
| cieldumort |
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| Tue Aug 25 2026 02:24 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Last frame of the most recent Visible loop of 96L clearly shows the elongated low level swirl once again losing its tenuous grip on the deep convection displaced by shear to the south and south-southwest. The disturbance still has some work to do, but all in all, maybe slightly better than a coin toss to get a name.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 26 2026 07:27 AM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Overnight operational models have given up on 96L, and don't develop it (although canadian attempts to, but fails late in the run). A few ensembles (not many) still get it going later. Worth noting, that if the system remains this weak it could drift into the bahamas and potentially try to form there (even then conditions may not be great for it to do so then) right before Labor Day weekend. However, odds still favor it staying weak/disorganized and recurve then. So it'll remain something worth checking up on, but there's really nothing concerning about it at the moment.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 26 2026 11:40 AM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Scatterometer passes do show that 96L has been producing winds of up to tropical storm force. While the circulation has been elongated, there appears to be an attempt to re-consolidate further south and underneath the deeper convection. NHC has eased up a little, now down to 60%, which seems reasonable. 96L's window to get classified is limited this week. If the system pulls it out in the next few hours, it could go straight to being named.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 26 2026 12:06 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Convection is being challenged by the abundant dry air to its north and northwest, but shear is moderate to low and the low level vorticity seems to be a little stronger now. Additionally, subtle banding features are forming. Looks right on the cusp of being classifiable.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 26 2026 01:23 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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The most recent scatt pass indeed shows that the surface circulation is now relatively well-defined and has reformed south of where the center was prior (noted here with a red I for Invest).
There is still a little entanglement with the monsoon trof. If it breaks free, most likely straight to name.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 26 2026 04:20 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Today's 12z FNV3 is starting to cook on 96L again.
This time, a handful of the primary 50 members develop 96L within the next 48 hours, with all of those finding the system falling apart near the eastern Greater Antilles. However, after a pause, several members appear to pick the open wave of Dolly up and redevelop it near or over Cuba to the Bahamas, or in the Gulf. Those solutions advertise a direct threat to land in the extended range.
Very similar ensemble output from today's 12z EURO AI
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 26 2026 05:34 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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DeepMind FNV3 1000-member now up to a 33% chance of becoming a named storm. This is much higher than before.
330/1000 members develop into a 34+ knot tropical cyclone, median genesis time is tonight.
Credit: TC-ATLAS
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 26 2026 07:42 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Looks a little better on satellite, but the circulation is still not great (elongated and not a real circulation), highly doubt this develops. It's similar to the systems last year that had some sign of potential development, but couldn't close off a low and never did. It is trying though.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 26 2026 10:04 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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I reckon that 96L is resulting in some debates inside NHC tonight, as well.
My own read of the state of the system is that it is now more likely than not a tropical cyclone or soon will be. Being that 96L is so far out in the Atlantic, we are seriously lacking data. No recon, some quality-flagged if not very incomplete scat passes, etc.
This most recent OSCAT3 pass suggests that it is has a fairly well-defined surface circulation with just remnant troffing extending out towards the northeast. This pass also shows several pockets of tropical storm force wind.
On conventional satellite imagery (visible, IR and pseudo-daylight), the central convection is deep and becoming more concentrated, while there are also spiral banding features extending outward to a significant distance.
I'd place its odds at 90% of becoming Dolly within 48 hours, but I've certainly been wrong before.
| cieldumort |
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| Wed Aug 26 2026 10:25 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Another significant increase in the percentage of DeepMind FNV3 ensembles that develop 96L into Dolly, now with 512 out of the 1,000 members in the most recent run (18z Thursday Aug 26)
Credit: TC-ATLAS
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Aug 27 2026 03:40 AM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Invest 96L is almost certainly a tropical cyclone now, albeit still sheared and still battling dry air. The concern with the system has always been, what will it be, if anything, by the time it reaches the longitude of the Antilles, and could it even pose a risk to the Bahamas, Florida, or other Gulf coast states.
Should NHC confirm TC status, then once models lock in to the reality that it is a TC now and start to conduct future runs based on this assessment, we may get some more reliable output. Until then, here is the latest early 06z track guidance
(Note: an end of the track does not necessarily mean the end of the system's future, just that the model run ended at that hour OR in some cases, it could be that they lost track of the vort).
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 27 2026 07:21 AM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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This ascat pass shows it very much elongated to the southwest, the split areas visible on the satellite below also hint at it. Close but just not there, needs to be more consistent for an el nino year.
Similar siutation happened with a few waves last year, one off Florida, and another one that entered the Caribbean. Just too elongated and can't maintain a decent circulation long enough to be classified.
Still could today, watch the center to see if the sw weakens and lightning or the general center tries to pop.
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CFHC
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| Thu Aug 27 2026 10:37 AM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly (formerly AL96) located in the central Tropical Atlantic, at 11:00 AM EDT (1500 UTC).
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 27 2026 01:46 PM |
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Re: 96L Lounge
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Long range models generally aren't favorible for Dolly down the road, UKMet and Canadian, not withstanding. (Although the UKMet develops a second system nearby) Timing is late next week for it being even potentially close to the US, but odds are high that nothing much comes of it. Dolly has at best 24 hours before getting ripped apart.
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Aug 27 2026 02:44 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Looking at some of the 12z Global runs on Dolly at 7.5 days out (180 hours)
ICON at 180 hours has Dolly near the Bahamas at 987mb
EURO AI has Dolly all washed out
GFS AI has Dolly all washed out
CANADIAN has Dolly just south of Florida, re-intensifying
UKMET (168 hours out is end of this run - 7 days) 993mb near or over the Bahamas
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 28 2026 07:11 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Overnight models mostly drop Dolly completely with a few exceptions.
The UK Met develops another system near the Bahamas mid next week that gets close to Florida, and the Canadian redevelops dolly near Bimini island in the Bahamas and stalls it offshore.
very few ensembles on the deep mind after the Caribbean. Dolly doesn't look great on satellite this morning.
| cieldumort |
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| Fri Aug 28 2026 01:07 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 28 2026 08:45 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 29 2026 04:26 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Dolly is an exceptionally stout and resilient wave that continues deserving our attention. In the near to medium term, regeneration is unlikely. However, mid/late next week and into the holiday weekend is where things may get dicey.
The Gulf is a powder keg of untapped hot water and shear is largely expected to be on the light side during this time. There is a chance Invest Dolly makes its way into it during this favorable window.
The Gulf Stream extending well out into the southwest Atlantic is also anomalously very warm. Much of this region is also forecast to be under a lighter shear regime. Dolly may make its way over here during a favorable window.
Invest Dolly is much too robust to easily fall apart over the Antilles and is probably either going into the Gulf or the southwestern Atlantic during not only what is historically very near climo peak, but also at a time when conditions are just more favorable.
Above: SSTs Image credit: Cyclonicwx.com
Hurricane model runs are still going on Invest Dolly. This should be helpful. In addition, as Dolly draws closer, recon may get tapped to sample the environment at the very least.
In the meantime, here are some of the 8/29/0z Global runs that extend far enough into the future to glean how the wave may respond to being in a much more favorable condition for development.
EURO at 144 hours out
UKMET at 144 hours out
GFS at 144 hours out
CANADIAN at 144 hours out
ICON at 144 hours out
In summary
EURO - No redevelopment
UKMET - Redeveloped
GFS - Redeveloped
Canadian - Redeveloped
ICON - Redeveloped
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 29 2026 07:24 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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The majority of the models and ensemble members still do not redevelop dolly, which is still the most likely outcome. Conditions ahead of the remnants of Dolly are still quite poor for any development. The exceptions like UK/Icon/CMC are finding holes, but are unlikely themselves. Concern level here is low. Strong wind shear, fast westward movement (~25 mph), and plenty of dry air are keeping a hard ceiling on organization. The NHC rightly keeps redevelopment odds down at a low 10%.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 29 2026 11:39 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Most models do not redevelop Dolly, but this one (12z icon) shows a possibility if most of the system stays north of the islands, where the system develops east of the Bahamas, and potentially loops out, in this case it would likely stay out to sea.
Other models like the 12z GFS don't develop dolly, and the canadian seems to be backing off from it also. The next 24-36 hours seem likely to kill the current convection.
| cieldumort |
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| Sat Aug 29 2026 12:25 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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The 06z EPS 200-850mb wind shear forecast for late next week continues advertising a light shear regime in the Gulf and portions of the SW ATL
ECMWF model sounding average over the northern Gulf to just east of Florida advertises just 7 knots of shear and 300-850mb relative humidity of 57%
Atop very warm waters, this is more than sufficient to support tropical cyclone development. Favorable environment.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 29 2026 12:59 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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12z GFS - No Development.
12z Canadian does develop it near Lousiana and shows a landfall on labor day. main difference with this run it stays over the islands more and delays development on it.
12zUK Met is the most aggressive, redevelops east/over the Bahamas on Tuesday.
Then makes landfall south of Miami midday Thursday as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane, and exits near Tampa for another landfall as a cat 1 near Cedar key later on Friday.
No real change to the thoughts, ex-dolly still has a lot going against it, but there's a few spots that could allow it to re-spark. Odds still favor it not redeveloping, but things like this say keep an eye on it anyway.
| cieldumort |
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| Sat Aug 29 2026 01:22 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Most recent run of the DeepMind FNV3 1000-member ensembles is now advertising a 44% chance of at least a tropical storm developing from Wave Family D10+D12 (Remnants of Dolly),
with a median genesis time of 186 hours out from 06z today to reach tropical storm strength (next weekend)
| cieldumort |
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| Sat Aug 29 2026 06:33 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Many more models now tracking Dolly/Wave D10/Wave D12 into the Gulf, now that these runs go out far enough (many model runs end within 7 days, so this is starting to come into better focus)
| cieldumort |
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| Sun Aug 30 2026 03:16 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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8/30/0z EURO has joined the Invest Dolly redevelopment camp with a tropical depression in the eastern Gulf at 8 days out
CANADIAN in the northern Gulf at 7.5 days out
UKMET at just over 4 days out - approaching Florida
ICON at 5.5 days out
First, it remains to be seen just how much of Wave Dolly is left after traversing through all this shear ~ and then ~ how much, if any, the system travels over the Greater Antilles. A trip through Cuba could be its complete demise, for example. On the other hand, a voyage just skirting the islands to the north could overachieve once in the Gulf or SW Atlantic.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 30 2026 04:48 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Today's 0z Superensemble plots. Credit: PolarWx.com
*TRACK ONLY - NO MENTION OF INTENSITY HERE*
| Yaakov |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 30 2026 08:28 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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I see lots of model runs posted here, which are definitely interesting on a speculative level. However, IMHO the short-term/nowcast trends with Dolly are worth keeping track of.
Dolly has proven quite resilient vs. model expectations, with the recent 'explosion' of convection seemingly aided by the diffluent, highly sheared flow.
Surface obs from the Leeward Islands in the NE Caribbean have been quite interesting. Thread here:
https://x.com/yconsor/status/2094029423624310857
| cieldumort |
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| Sun Aug 30 2026 01:28 PM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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ICON keeps trying to ramp Dolly up/back up sooner and have it recurve (head out to sea) as a very strong tropical cyclone (sometimes this model has Dolly go Major even).
ICON is batting zero so far and keeps having to shift its forecast recurve further and further out
h/t: Tomer Burg
@burgwx
PolarWx.com
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 31 2026 02:57 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Invest Dolly is not enjoying that blast of dry air and models have dramatically backed off on their earlier more bullish redevelopment outcomes. In fact, there is now so little of "Dolly" left, it is not clear that should TC Genesis occur from the remnant trof, the name would stick.
In any event, if the trof doesn't completely fall apart during the next 24 hours or so, far less hostile conditions still appear to lie ahead, with both far less shear and far less dry air. By midweek we should have a clearer picture of the wave's prospects.
Where's Wal.. Dolly?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 31 2026 07:43 AM |
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Re: Dolly Lounge
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Yes Dolly is done, nothing beyond it (outside of 97L) at the moment. Just on the look out for short fuse systems near land and the N Atlantic for the moment. Any other waves in the MDR likely will have the same fate as Dolly and the others before it still.