MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:34 PM |
Rita Forecasts
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Where do you think Hurricane Rita will make landfall?
| Bayou64 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 12:19 AM |
Re: Rita Forecasts
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I'm hoping for landfall further south then predicted. I believe, however, the storm center will be about 20-30 miles east of Matagorda at landfall. I've been through Betsy and Camille and a slew of others between La. and Tx. This one spooks me.
Good luck to all in the path.
Jim Carbo
Magnolia, TX
| Bayou64 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 06:00 AM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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Well the NHC has changed its plot. I think I will too. As of this time, I suspect landfall should be near Bolivar Peninsula. My barometer is reading slightly higher than earlier. Let's hope that's a good thing. I'm still in the "cone" but hoping for a more easterly push now.
Good luck to those in the path(wrath).
Carbo
Magnolia, TX
| reasonmclucus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 08:16 AM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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The NHC did a good job forecasting Katrina's track. I suspect if they miss it will involve setting the course too far south. Galveston needs to have Rita hit to the north, but I think she will hit close enough on the south side to cause significant damage, particularly if she only falls back to a Category 4. If she hits as a Cat. 5 it may not make much difference. Her pressure has dropped to 898mb. with winds at 175 mph which might qualify as a Cat 6 if there were such a Category.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023809.shtml?3day
The current track indicates we may be feeling some effects from Rita here in central Kansas.
I noticed the computer models at wunderground were showing a northern turn before Texas, but that may be due to problems with the display considering that some of them were showing current location between Cuba and Mexico.
| SMOKE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 12:53 PM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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We are definately getting down to the wire for the landfall forecast.
Director Mayfield has made it clear there will be some changes to the track. Model agreement is no greater than Katrina 48-72hrs before landfall.
| Bayou64 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 04:29 PM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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As the NHC moves their predictions east I will too. I'm thinking landfall more along the mid La coast, not Beaumont, Port Arthur area. When I was growing up in the New Orleans area we wouldn't rule out a storm hitting us if it was above 25n and it had not passed 90w. New Orleans may take another shot with this one.
Good luck to those in the path.
Carbo
Magnolia, TX
| cmiller324 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 04:41 PM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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I am a newbie on this site.
My guess would be landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Pecan Island, La. That is 50-55miles east of Cameron.
A little too close to me in Terrebonne Parish, La.
| Bayou64 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 22 2005 05:00 PM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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I wouldn't put it out of the question for this thing to actually go east of there. I'll have to check some other data in about 6-8 hours. At least with this trend I'm breathing a sigh of relief, for the moment, since traffic leaving the area is at a stand still.
Good luck to those in the path.
Carbo
Magnolia, TX
| reasonmclucus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 23 2005 06:47 AM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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The computer projections are getting wierd. One has Rita turning around and going south along the Texas coast to Mexico.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html
I gather that some of the projections are expecting Rita to go south around the High pressure system. If they are right 'Rita could hit the La. coast and then go south to Texas.
I still think Texas is a likely target but fortunately north of Galveston rather than south. Unfortunately, too far north east and New Orleans gets flooded again. With Rita's size that could happen even with landfall at Galveston.
| reasonmclucus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 23 2005 05:24 PM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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I've been looking at the geography of the area. the indented nature of the shoreline could allow the top winds to affect a much larger area than is often the case. If Rita comes in at the right angle the top winds could affect much of the La. coast even if the eye itself makes landfall in Texas.
| Bayou64 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 24 2005 04:47 AM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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Landfall is almost..."almost" certain. It will probably move inland. BUT....Don't be surprised if this thing doesn't loop around in the next 8-12 hrs. I'm thinking a loop towards the west.
| reasonmclucus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 24 2005 07:07 AM |
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Re: Rita Forecasts
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Quote:
Landfall is almost..."almost" certain. It will probably move inland. BUT....Don't be surprised if this thing doesn't loop around in the next 8-12 hrs. I'm thinking a loop towards the west.
You're not the only one suggesting a loop. A couple of the computer models are also suggesting a loop. One would have Rita back into the Gulf, one toward the middle of Texas and another moving south west along the Texas coast.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html