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n1unicorn
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(Registered User)
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Wed Oct 05 2005 02:57 PM
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Possible new storm
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Anybody picking up on the cluster below the Yucatan? http://vortex.accuweather.com/hurricane/...®ion=GUL I see an eye there but nobody seems to be worried about it yet.
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04GTP
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(Registered User)
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Wed Oct 05 2005 04:35 PM
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Re: Possible new storm
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Hi, Unicorn!
Not to honk my own horn, but please take a look at my post on GFS model and effects on the Tampa Bay area..posted yesterday.
GFS has been calling for the Yucatan low to develop and swing NE into the central Florida Gulf Coast for about 3 days now.
Intensity will be questionable as always...but being that I live on the Gulf in St. Petersburg Beach, this is definitely one to keep an eye on when it crosses the FL Straits.
Cheers!
Dave
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Re: Possible new storm
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Yesterday I thought the GFS was crazy in developing a low and swinging it twords Tampa because I did not see one sign of the desturbance. Now I am inclined to think the GFS is not as crazy. The desturbace is there with a good amount of T-Storms. I don't beleve it will develop into anything major maybe a Tropical Storm at worst because of some sheer.
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CoalCracker
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Wed Oct 05 2005 07:54 PM
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Re: Possible new storm
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Although the 12Z GFS is not showing the same strength as in previous runs, I'm staying totally informed on this one. Could be one of those "UH OH!" systems that intensifies rapidly right before making landfall. Like to check the results of the 18Z models later this evening and see how Tammy's new track and the effects and movement of the low in the NE Gulf will have on track/intensity of 93L. Depending on the 18Z runs, might even stay up to check the 00Z 06 runs so I don't get caught with my britches down.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Wed Oct 05 2005 08:42 PM
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Re: Possible new storm
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As reported, the system coming from the Yucatan is disorganized. It has signs of developing slightly, but the storm is moving rather quickly and is now passing over Cuba on its way to Florida. Fortunately, assuming status quo (I know... it's wrong to assume), should be little more than bad thunderstorms and a windy day or so for South Florida. Here's hoping for the status quo!
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Re: Possible new storm
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Looking at the satilite tonight this system looks even more disorganized and probably won't, in my mind become a depression. I hope it keeps coming twords the Tampa area though because we need the rain and it has been a very dry summer especally in September.
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FlaMommy
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(Storm Tracker)
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Thu Oct 06 2005 05:04 AM
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Re: Possible new storm
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when are we supposed to start feeling the effects and major effects of this storm in the tampa bay area??? got busy weekend ahead and havent seen much on news about it...thanks becky
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SMOKE
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(Weather Watcher)
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Thu Oct 06 2005 01:05 PM
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Re: Possible new storm
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Yea that 'area' hasn't shown a lot of promise in developing and with the frontal boundary moving through the SE CONUS ...... I don't see it developing into a depression or storm for that matter.
RECON has been pulled for 15 and 18Z.
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