| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 20 2006 09:11 PM |
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TS Beryl a Wake up call!
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Finally Beryl is starting the weakening trend. Still a Landfall right on the tiny Island near Cape Cod is not out of the question. Beryl did'nt surprise me with the northward movement. This is probably a wake up call for the Northeast coast because the track Beryl took or is taking is possibly another track for a September Hurricane. (What is your justification for this statement?) Also meteorologists believe a season like 2004 is possibly likely as the Bermuda high just sits there in the Atlantic. It's the high that controls the storms path. Keep that in mind....
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 21 2006 01:22 AM |
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rationale
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well, if that synoptic pattern progged next week, with the trough inland and the subtropical high wedged into the east coast... sort of a PNA negative summer pattern like we had in late june... if that's going to be our late monthly recurrent pattern during summer/fall transition then i guess there may be some merit to the idea.
thing is, to get a hurricane into new england like that, that isn't weakened from crossing coastal north carolina... you've got to have the high amplitude ridge in place, a digging trough in the western great lakes, and a hurricane coming in at just the right time. otherwise it'll recurve or push inland further south. that's a timing issue that keeps their strike interval for big ones at 20-30 years.
of course, this recurring weather theme could keep the hydrologic state in the northeast juiced for a major flooding event if a tropical cyclone passes. sorta like what was going on last october and this spring.. and again in late june. all the flooding jazz in the northeast corridor lately does keep the prospect of a hurricane passage causing a huge mess at least believable. you wouldn't need a major or significant hurricane to cause a whole lot of flooding, in such case.
HF 0122z21july
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 22 2006 01:52 AM |
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Re: rationale
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Of course, to get into New England like that, such a hurricane may be shooting up the LIE at 40-60 mph .. not a whole lot of time to dump copious rain. I would be more inclined to give that dubious distinction to a slower-moving/decaying tropical storm or depression. (something similar to 91L)