(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 08 2006 02:12 AM
Nothing Much Going On...

Good evening,

Tropics are dead tonight and will probably remain quiet for the rest of the season.I know this is long range and can not be taken seriously...But The 00z GFS tonight forms a weak area of Low-pressure in the gulf of mexico and brings into south-florida threw the bahamas and begins to intensify of the eastcoast to 992mbs.

00z GFS @ 372hrs

00z GFS @ 384 hrs

Unregistered User
Mon Oct 09 2006 08:33 PM
Re: Nothing Much Going On...

The way the pattern has been would say NO MORE STORMS, The way I see it Two storms, maybe one affecting U.S.
This could be Gulf area. Any ideas?

Tue Oct 10 2006 10:36 PM
Re: Nothing Much Going On...

The long-range GFS isn't reliable in the least, particularly at time frames of 15-16 days as posted there. It's more for general climate patterns than anything; all models, including the GFS, have enough trouble predicting things right in one week, yet alone two.

Further, the system that it develops there is decidedly baroclinic/non-tropical. Note the orientation of the dashed contours, the thickness lines -- they are oriented as seen with warm and cold fronts throughout. The precipitation distribution is indicative of an extratropical cyclone as well. In other words -- nothing to get worked up about.

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