Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Arlene continues on a (roughly) northward motion, headed for western Cuba later today and tomorrow. By later tomorrow it should be in the GOM and then the focus will really start to intensify on the exact landfall location. NHC takes it very near Mobile (looks like Bubba Gump Shrimp might want to take the weekend off) with a slight rightward adjustment this morning. The modelling continues to be in astounding agreement for a storm this early and this poorly defined, with very little variation in the modelling. I would suspect that any further adjustments to landfall would be more easterly than westerly, but the range of possiblities still ranges from New Orleans to Apalachicola.

Arlene is one sided at this point, with SW shear inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms on the western side. There is forecast to be some relaxation of the shear in the next 48 hours, but with a marginal circulation right now (it can be strongly argued that Arlene is still a tropical depression) and warm, but not deeply warm water in the GOM, Arlene would have a tough time making past tropical storm status. It bears watching, and folks from Biloxi to the Keys can expect a wet weekend thanks to Arlene.