TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005

IN CONTRAST TO THE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT WERE
PRESENT OVERNIGHT...A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SEEMS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE
CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. SHIP 9VVN AT 12Z
REPORTED 30 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND
OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS CONCEIVABLE THE WINDS ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 35 KT BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY UNTIL
WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND ESTIMATED AT
285/11...WHICH IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IN GOES IMAGERY. THE ADVISORY
POSITION IS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PACE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...BUT THE FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...ACCOMPANIED
BY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...UNTIL
REACHING AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS AND COOLER WATERS IN
ABOUT TWO DAYS. WEAKENING AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.8N 105.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 109.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 16.3N 111.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 112.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

Officially Beatriz at 11 AM EDT but wont be of long duration as cooler and dry air awaits her to it's west.