| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 01 2006 08:42 PM |
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Invest 92E
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92E has been placed on the NRL site. Kind of strange that I remembered to check as I'm extremely busy at work today. Also...debating the usefulness of adding a thread to the other storm basins forum for every blessed invest in the East PAC. Maybe I should drop this (creating a new post) unless there is something very interesting to look at (although I admit I did learn something new from Aletta). Anyway if so, PM me.
From the noon East Pacific TWD:
LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10N102W 1007 MB PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 97W-103W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING 20-25 N WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT AND LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS S OF 13N. GFS MODEL 06Z RUN HAS SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT WHICH SEEN LIKELY AND BUILDING TO 15 FT IN 48 HOURS.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 02 2006 04:18 PM |
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Re: Invest 92E
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One day later, from the TWD and TWO, respectively:
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 10N104W WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NW DRIFT. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE TOWARDS ACAPULCO...AND THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 1300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THIS AREA NEAR 15N102W AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INITIATING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION W OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS E OF THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 103W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N 16N BETWEEN 95W-101W. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL TOO ELONGATED...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 03 2006 03:01 PM |
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Re: Invest 92E
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...now depression TWO-E
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jun 03 2006 03:41 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Invest 92E
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Yeah, I debated whether to post it because it may just be that there is zero interest on this board for eastpac storms. :-)
This morning's 4am PDT TWOEP said, "HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING," but Avila had it as a depression at the first available advisory time, 8am PDT, "APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION."
Not sure what to make of that TWO as it looked pretty good on the 1045Z IR (attached), and convection has certainly continued to take off since then.
The advisory describes it as a rainmaker that will not develop too much further, and will either head into the coast (and that is the track forecast) or slide along the coast the next couple days.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 03 2006 07:41 PM |
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Re: Invest 92E
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they could have tagged it a depression yesterday. now its actually a very well-organized depression. i don't see significant shear either; just a little. at the listed pace it has at least an advisory cycle or two over open water, and expect it to be tropical storm bud later on. convection and banding features with this thing are not in short supply for a lowly 25kt depression, lets say.
HF 2041z03june
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 03 2006 09:00 PM |
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Re: Invest 92E
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It is now NONAME on NRL.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jun 03 2006 11:39 PM |
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TD TWO-E
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Just back.
An hour and a half ago the TWD said, "ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS," but just an hour before that advisory #2 didn't indicate likelyhood of winds of TS strength. There is a quikscat from right around that timeframe as well, but I'm having the same problem as with Aletta in trying to read it, and resolve the different intensities between the ascending and descending scans. Lack of expertise. If anyone could explain more about how that works I'd appreciate it. Anyway...I'm going to assume that was key in determining an upgrade to TS status, which I suppose will occur shortly with the intermediate advisory.
So Acapulco has gotten quite a bit of rain from this system.
* * * * * *
Still a TD on the 2A advis.
| poolwatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jun 03 2006 11:56 PM |
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Re: TD TWO-E
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Zero interest in Pac Storms is definitely a mistake
remember the storm that crossed over from the pacific to the atlantic (or was it the opposite) last year or was it the year before?
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jun 04 2006 12:08 AM |
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Re: TD TWO-E
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I seem to recall the one of the models taking this storm on an Elena type path.
Up to the Coast, the East along the Coast, then back toward the West.
Just about a worst case scenario for the Mexican Riviera!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jun 04 2006 01:55 AM |
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Re: TD TWO-E
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I just wanted to mention that I talked to Derek today, and I had asked why 2E wasn't a depression this morning (because, you know, there is reasoning behind every one of those decisions), and he said because there was no LLC, it was a mid-level circulation.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jun 04 2006 05:04 AM |
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Re: Invest 92E
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Quite the mid-level circulation on the storm...but it's well inland now. The surface center is lagging that mid-level feature by about 100 miles, give or take, and should be onshore before sun-up tomorrow out there. To the eye, there doesn't look like there's a whole lot of wind shear, but the satellite analyses suggest about 20kt of wind shear across the cyclone out of the SW -- which I guess is just enough. Alas, it'll be inland soon, and eyes will turn to whatever comes next, wherever that is.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Jun 04 2006 05:58 AM |
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Re: Invest 92E
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it's all unstacked and with the upper part of the storm blowing off the llc may just drift and die. it's clawing for convection now and might just meander around, or if it starts going again pick up on the NE motion and go inland. since it came unstacked the chances of it making ts strength are much lower. if it drifts east into weaker shear it may have a chance.. havent looked at the upper air pattern progs enough to figure any more than that.
HF 0658z04june
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jun 04 2006 09:21 AM |
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Re: Invest 92E
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Once again it is so very hard for me to see what is so easy for you two. I could see the mid-level circulation move inland, but I could not see that the LLC was lagging behind, only that something didn't look usual or what I was more used to seeing. Also is it correct to use the grey scale of the clouds on the IR image to see that was a mid-level circulation (not bright white, like higher clouds would be, but lighter than the LLC)?
Finally I could see a new spot of convection forming offshore and assumed that was near the center of the LLC.
Then I switched from the regular IR to looking at the RGB, and then it was very obvious the LLC was stationary, and the convection was all being blown inland.
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Interesting today watching the LLC slide ESE along the coast firing off tiny puffs of convection along the way...but looks as though it is about done.