| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 16 2006 11:18 PM |
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new system--91L/daniel
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nhc is going to have to explain to me what's up with the invest out there. it's very clearly been a tropical depression all day. closed circulation, organized convection that is present in all quadrants, definitely has a closed isobar or two and probably winds 25-30kt. looked that way for going on 18hr now. dunno what gives. i wouldn't be surprised if this system develops a deep cdo overnight and forms an eye by late tomorrow.
HF 2318z16july
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 17 2006 01:20 AM |
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Re: new system--91L/daniel
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It seems to me as though the NHC is a little more hesitant to upgrade waves to depressions in the E. Pacific as compared to the Atlantic. Maybe it's the lack of recon flights, maybe it's apathy, I'm not sure -- but it does seem like it takes a bit more organization to get something in the E. Pacific. I don't have any hard stats to back this up, but it seems to me (from memory) that almost all E. Pacific depressions ultimately become tropical storms, whereas this is not the case in the Atlantic.
In the NHC's favor, it seems as though what obs. they do have do not support depression status for many of those features, whether QuikScat winds & wind speeds or satellite intensity estimates. This one should get the upgrade soon enough and ultimately become a tropical storm and possibly hurricane, but I think you can easily make a case for something as of 5a this morning.
There's another one behind it, too, that has a shot over the next 3-5 days...assuming this one doesn't become large and inhibit the other's development due to excessive outflow/shear. It seems like E. Pacific activity comes and goes in spurts, but this one is getting on up there.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 17 2006 04:28 AM |
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Re: new system--91L/daniel
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I believe that it should have been an invest all day..at the very least, but as for it being a full-on depression, I have my reservations. However, I also believe that NHC has been remiss in not mentioning the Low sooner.
IMHO, we have a sub-tropical depression which has been highly-sheared on it's western quadrant, and which has not fully separated itself from a still-respectable front. Consequently, much of the cyclogenesis has been baroclinic. That said, clearly there has been a LLC all day long, banding, deep convection (in the eastern quadrant), a little bit of antic-cyclonic outflow, something of a warm-core. Hardly what I would expect a fair and ballanced NHC to let go basically unmentioned all day.
Who knows what the internal debates and decisions are. I would have thought 91L & 92L of last month would have receieved more attention from them, also.
92L reminded me quite a lot of the late-season named systems of last year, 91L appears to have closed-off right at landfall, and this non-Invest, Invest, sure passes the smell test of a hybrid system worthy of at least official notice as an Invest.
Edit: When you posted 91*L* of course I read into that Atlantic. I think you mean 91*E* and my reply is meant for the Carolinas northernmost low opps
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 20 2006 08:09 AM |
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Re: new system--91L/daniel
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Click here to get funktop with hurricane daniel. As daniel intensifies - beyond category 2 - there's presumably going to be more 'lime green' in the imagery.
Funktop enhancement - developed by Ted Funk for assistance with Precipitation analysis. I sure hope I'm making a plug for a friend of flhurricane.com (and those who support it).
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 22 2006 10:59 PM |
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Re: new system--91L/daniel
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I was wondering if the Pacific season is average right now or above/below normal? Just curious.
Thanks,
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 23 2006 09:00 PM |
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Re: new system--91L/daniel
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pretty cool vis shot.....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/loop-vis.html
can't wait until media here's there's a hurricane headed towards the Hawaiian Islands in 120hrs or so.... (it should be much weaker by then)
forecasted at 50kts in the 120 hr time frame
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 25 2006 04:54 PM |
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daniel goes down
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wow, those minority models (GFS/GFDL) that predicted daniel would come to a halt near 140W were right. the storm has pretty much stopped near 143W and lost all its convection. so much for the prospect of a significant system nearing hawaii. dunno if the hawaiian center has said this yet.. but it's probably just going to spin down and die, not really affect this islands. good news, if it pans out.
HF 1653z25july
| bobw211 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 26 2006 03:34 PM |
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Re: daniel goes down
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A FRESH BATCH OF CB...THE FIRST IN OVER 24 HOURS...HAS BURST TO LIFE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF DANIEL. THESE CB ARE OVER 100 NM FROM THE CENTER HOWEVER...KEEPING DATA T NUMBERS LOW IF THEY CAN BE DEFINED AT ALL. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THE 1130 UTC PHFO CI NUMBER OF 2.0 AND THE ADMITTEDLY OLD 0500 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A SMALL HANDFUL OF 30 KT WIND BARBS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN TO DISSIPATION ..WITH THE NEW CB LIKELY THE RESULT OF NIGHTTIME CLOUD TOP COOLING AND LOCAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
Looks like a hawaii well just have a cloudy day.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 28 2006 05:39 AM |
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daniel comes up?
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that little batch of cb the discussions out of hawaii have been noting is persisting and growing... has been all day. hawaii may need to reclassify it and issue watches. based on the system's current appearance and action i'd say it's redeveloping, and may regain tropical storm strength as it passes the islands. the orographic effects should definitely lead to substantial rainfall. it isn't moving incredibly quickly, either.
yeah, cphc definitely should consider reclassifying it.
HF 0539z28july