| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 12:11 AM |
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East Pac Ileana - Potential Coastal Baja threat -
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While still listed as a 65 knot Cat 1, by all appearances, Ileana is already at least pushing Cat 2, and could readily become a major hurricane by morning. This hurricane may pose a serious threat to the southern and southwestern Baja, with Dr. Lyons already anticipating 15-20 foot waves in those areas.
Model guidance suggests that she may either:
1) Head northwest, well-away from land
2) Head just a little east of northwest, then more north-northwest, and possibly bring squally rainbands and hurricane-force winds onshore - along with high waves out to sea and possibly surge inland
3) A few models have strongly suggested that a still strong and powerful Ileana pushes right up the west coast of the Baja for a bit and/or right up inside the Gulf of Baja - such a strong tropical cyclone following either one of these routes could also impact Southern California and/or Arizona/Nevada with some rains and maybe some winds
Visible Image from Aug. 22 at 2330Z
Official NHC "Cone of Uncertainty" (Pleas note time stamp)
Additionally, Storm Cooper has been very graciously including the most recent model runs below
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 12:25 AM |
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Storm Cooper
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 12:37 AM |
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
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Much appreciated. The two very respectable models that have been suggesting moving Ileana along or into the Baja may not be there, from the looks of it, however.
These are primarily the FSU MM5 and GFDL.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 12:46 AM |
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
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If you look close the GFDL is there. The FSU MM5 like all the Global models I have to "draw" in and takes time so I only do them for the Atlantic side.... I will try to list the models by color later down the road....
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 12:51 AM |
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
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I need glasses!
Ok, found the GFDL, thank you.
Being that the central east pac do seem to be *the* basins so far this year, I think it makes sense for us to keep up some info for anyone with interests in, say, the Baja, Hawaii, etc.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 12:54 AM |
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
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Our MM5 has been projecting an easterly course from the outset, not taking it as far west as the other models. As a result, it doesn't enter a region of cooler SSTs and more stable low-level air, allowing for the projected trough to send it more toward the east and thus Baja California. The GFDL tends to keep storms too strong over such conditions -- really in most cases -- and also likely keeps it stronger than the other models and thus more likely to be turned a bit more toward the northeast. While I think the other models are underdoing the intensity in the first three days, I think they have the right idea for down the line. Ileana is heading just a bit too far west now for a significant threat to be facing Baja California, in my view.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 03:15 AM |
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
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Well, if the 5-Day is at all accurate, Day 5 now definitely turns back to the left. It's really hard for me to put much stock in anything out past 72 hours, of course. Interesting to note that the intensity has been so underestimated by so many models, isn't it?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 23 2006 09:25 AM |
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
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8/23 0Z
