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Hurricane John, who has recently been a Charley-like Cat. 4 and brushed along the western coast of central Mexico, does now have his sights on the tip of Baja. Many models have shifted more and more to the right, and several now in fact clearly suggest a trip up along the western coast of Baja California. As of this post update (2:40 AM CDT) Navy at 115MPH Cat 3 SSD CI 5.5 117MPH Raw CIMSS ADT 6.l 134MPH Cabo Radar Site Wunderground model plots page for John Wunderground historical track plots of similarly located tropical cyclones |
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Track looks like it's going well east of the NHC projected ... moving NNW. Looks like it may just graze the eastern shore of the southern Baja and move up into the Gulf of California. |
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Lots of reasons to argue that the weakness in the High will allow him to move more NNW or NW than WNW or W, and possibly even make a right at some point. For now, his track appears to be generally on a level very similar to 2003's Marty. NWS offices in Arizona are already including special verbiage to account for the possibility of thunderstorms with heavy rain. After 1997's Nora PR disaster, it would seem that everyone is treading carefully, of course. |
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models have again shifted (flip-flopped) well to the right (north and north-northeast) of ofci -- think nhc will have their hands forced if just one more run comes in with several models showing an intact closed low crossing into arizona. (The above models plotted on wunderground include the gfs(avn), ukmet, bam medium, nogaps & gfdl. ) |