(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 27 2006 01:18 PM
Cat 4 Typhoon Xangsane hits Philippines

Typhoon Xangsane exploded into a cat 4 storm overnight just before making landfall in Albay province in the central Philippines. Most forecasts yesterday were for a high end cat 1 or low end cat 2 at landfall. The storm apparently jogged north, missing an early landfall and stayed over water longer than expected, giving it more time to deepen. The official JTWC track takes Xangsane almost right over Manila, although it appears to me that it could stay about 50 miles south. It is then expected to enter the South China Sea, re-intensify into a cat 4 and hit Vietnam in about 4 days.

I know the Philippines are pretty used to typhoons, but I fear the loss of life could be substantial, especially with the storm hitting during a rapid intensification stage. The storm seems to be moving along pretty steadily so hopefully the flash flooding won't be too destructive.

UPDATE (10:30 PM ET) - center appears to have passed Manila, winds have shifted from NNW to SW, gusting to 55 mph.

12:30 AM - oops, apparently not. 12:00 ob has ENE wind at 60mph - gusts to 89 mph. That really makes more sense with the storm passing just south. That 10:00 ob must have just been a bad observation.

(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 29 2006 02:47 PM
Re: Cat 4 Typhoon Xangsane hits Philippines

Xangsane is currently gathering strength again over the South China Sea and is back to cat 4 (115 kts) after it weakened to a cat 2 (or just a tropical storm, depending on which meteorological service you believe). It is now moving almost due west and should reach the coast of Vietnam sometime late tomorrow. JTWC forecast takes the intensity up to 125 kts. but then weakens it a little to 120 kts. before landfall. The storm is expected to slow down considerably as it moves inland so flash flooding may be the biggest danger.

Don't really know how heavily populated that area is, but I hope they are prepared.

Storm Cooper
Fri Oct 06 2006 08:38 AM
Re: EP992006

Not much to look at but really the only game in town right now...

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center