| vpbob21 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 09 2006 11:18 PM |
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Invest 97C
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While the Atlantic has been pretty dead lately, things are ramping up in the Pacific, with a tropical storm and a depression in the east pac, a healthy looking invest (that has a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for it) in the central Pacific, and a tropical storm in the west pac. In the east pac, T.S. Norman and TD 16-E are expected to stay weak and head northeast in the direction of Baja California the next few days. In the west pac, T.S. Soulik is well east of the Marianas heading WNW. The JTWC forecast intensifies it to a 95 knot typhoon and heads it in the general direction of Okinawa by 120 hrs.
The most interesting system though may turn out to be Invest 97C, currently at about 11/163. Several models as well as CPC discussions have been hinting for a few days now about possible tropical activity around Hawaii. The GFDL is very aggresive with this system and develops a significant hurricane, and turns it quickly north then northeast, making a beeline toward the Hawaiian islands by 18Z Oct. 14. The GFS is less enthusiastic intensity-wise but still heads it in the direction of Hawaii.
Several promising system have fizzled in this area the last couple months, so nothing to get too excited about yet, but certainly worth watching.
| vpbob21 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 12 2006 04:14 AM |
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Re: Invest 97C
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It figures, as soon as I post about a possible cen pac system 97C goes belly-up, convection just puffed out and the system dropped south into the ITCZ. I guess its a typical central Pacific system ... everything has to line up perfectly to get a storm going out here. Actually seems to have made a bit of a comeback today, deep convection has been pretty persistent around a circulation center around 8/164. Even the normally hyperaggressive GFDL has pretty much given up on it, but if it can get further north it might not be dead yet. Most of the models that see it actually take it ENE south of the Hawaiian Islands then curve it north east of the Big Island.
Further east, we lost Norman yesterday and although Olivia survived the 11:00 advisory, she probably won't last past 5:00. Lots of SW shear across this area. GFS keeps wanting to develop a system and move it NW off Mexico then turn it N to near the southern tip of Baja California in about a week, so still some stuff to watch in the tropics.