| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 20 2006 11:39 PM |
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East Pac Paul is born - Models support Baja/NW Mexico landfall w/ moisture into Southwest
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"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO."
As of this entry (10/20/06 4:30 PM PST) FSU's MM5, GFDL & the NAM-WRF all want to develop this 92e into a respectable tropical cyclone, and take it into or just south of the southern tip of Baja. That is some impressive agreement this far in advance among three of the most respectable models.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 23 2006 06:08 AM |
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Latest forecast from NHC indicates Baja gets hit by Hurricane Paul
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Tropical Storm Paul quickly became a powerful hurricane on Sunday, with a distinct, nearly pinhole-like eye. As of this post, Paul is forecast by NHC to become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall.
WindSat courtesy: NRL
As of this post, Hurricane Watches are now up for the Baja, and NHC has begun issuing intermediate advisories.
"HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
...PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY...
...REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...111.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT."
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Oct 23 2006 10:29 AM |
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Re: Latest forecast from NHC indicates Baja gets hit by Hurricane Paul
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| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 25 2006 05:33 AM |
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Re: Latest forecast from NHC indicates Baja gets hit by Hurricane Paul
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Despite a dislocation of the llc and MLC earlier today, a burst of deep convection has blown up overnight, with the llc actually nuzzling more back in and underneath. The Baja Peninsula is really picking up a lot of rain, at the very least.
(Near real-time)