Thu Jun 18 2009 12:26 PM
MJO on the Move / Cyclone Season Starts Percolating in the Pacific

After several rather quiet weeks, things are starting to percolate across the Pacific.

There've been several invests in the Western Pacific; one has now been upgraded to tropical storm status.

TC 'LINFA' (03W) has finally formed, after meandering and organizing for the past several days west of the Phillipines, and is now already on a path of recurvature towards Taiwan. NRL / JTWC currently has it maxing out around 50 Kts., or so, as it clips the southern tip of Taiwan. As usual, intensity and exact track subject to changes.

Also, Tropical Depression '01E' has (finally!) formed in the Eastern Pacific, the FIRST of the 2009 Eastern Pacific Season. As has been pointed out in these forums recently, this is rather 'far' into the EastPac's Season (which begins May 15th) for the first depression to form. Usually, there are 2 or 3 cyclones by this date into the season.

Bursting convection flared impressively overnight and T-numbers of 2.0 from several satellite analysis branches warrented the official upgrade to depression status by the NHC this morning.

Since then, the blast of convection has waned considerably, but it's deepening effects are apparent by several tight banding arcs now seen in evidence, straddeling the now-well-established LLC. Also, a nice CDO is forming over the core convection, usually an indicator of further deepening. It's also consolidated and largely broken away from the mass of convection to it's SW and a 2nd weak invest that was there yesterday. So it has several plusses on it's side, at least in the short term.

The GOES Floater SST overlay, however, indicates a steep temperature gradient in it's forecast path, with SST's falling off rapidly, so I persume it just isn't going to have enough 'juice' (due to the cooler SST's & attendant much lower 'saturation vapor pressure') to allow it to deepen significantly. 'TD 01E' also appears to be ingesting a stable-looking SCu cloud field to it's WNW, which doesn't help thermodynamics, either.

Hence, this one looks to be maxing out in a few days at *minimal* tropical storm strength as it crosses the main Mexican coastline somewhere E or NE of Cabo San Lucas.


Of more general and significant interest is that the MJO appears to be organizing and starting to propagate across the vast pacific.

A quick check of the latest 'Expert Discussion' of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (updated June 15th) reveals *several important changes* from the previous discussion, issued back in early June.

Back then, the MJO phenomena was 'incoherent' and NOT likely to enhance cyclone development in ANY basin.

Now though, it seems the MJO is 'getting it's act together', becoming more 'coherent' (measurable and trackable) and is beginning to propagate across the Pacific with an expected rendezvous with the Eastern Pacific in a week or two.

I expect to see at least several cyclones somewhere in the Central and/or Eastern Pacific these next few weeks, as the MJO 'Pulse' sets up shop in the WestPac and heads on towards the Americas. Will the pulse survive to get into the Atlantic Basin? Time will tell.

• The MJO strengthened during the past week with the enhanced convective phase located across the Western Hemisphere.

• Based on the latest observations and model forecasts, moderate MJO activity is expected during the next 1-2 week period.

• The MJO is expected to elevate the risk of tropical cyclones across the eastern Pacific.

So, all in all, it would seem that things are starting to pick for the Pacific Basins. The ITCZ is also becoming quite active across the Pacific, as to be expected as we approach Summer Solstice. Waters are getting mighty warm out here.

And, if all that were not enough, it now appears that an moderate ENSO event is taking shape, as well, with SST's across the pacific warming anomolously (2-4 C) during the last 5 consecutive months!

El Nino 'WATCH' Now Goes Into Effect

My educated guess is that, upper level winds permitting, the Atlantic should see an uptick in activity too, *if* the MJO pulse 'holds together' and continues to propagate right on into the Atlantic Basin. The 'calm before the storms' ?? Hmm....

More coming soon, as time permits.

Fri Jun 19 2009 12:29 PM
TD ONE-E Bordering on Tropical Storm

Just a quick update.

Curious, but the GOES Floater SST overlay for the TD today is *quite* different from the SST overlay yesterday. Not sure if they change those once or week, or whatever!

It now looks as though the depression will have *plenty of warm water* to work with, as isotherms of 29-30 C lay along it's track towards landfall.

And there appears to be a fair shot that the cyclone will strengthen, briefly, to tropical storm status just before landfall.

No tropical storm warning currently in effect, but that could change, should ONE-E cross the threshhold.

Either way you look at it, it's stormy, windy weather for the area where it comes ashore.

(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jun 19 2009 08:34 PM
Re: TD ONE-E Bordering on Tropical Storm

Appears to have moved onshore and has begun to fall apart. I doubt it made storm strength.

Sat Jun 20 2009 09:53 AM
TD ONE-E Falling Apart Over Land

Nope. I don't think it quite made it to TS status. And not according to NHC advisories, either.

Now looking pretty messy and sloppy as it blows itself out over land.

I'm glad it wasn't a major flash flood producer. They've had so much problems in years' past. Must be hell to live in this part of the world. The climate. The humidity. The storms. The flash flooding. Lucky we live elsewhere!

Something *might* be shaping up around 130W, or thereabouts. GFS is toying with it, but you know how the GFS can be rather overzealous in its' pronostications.

Nice weekend y'all. Enjoy the quiet spell while it lasts. July may be rather active, depending on MJO, etc.

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