Mon Jul 06 2009 12:30 PM
Tropical Storm BLANCA Forms in Eastern Pacific

After a long pause and one promising invest that didn't quite make it, the EastPac has finally spun up a tropical storm.

After consolidating and organizing nicely yesterday the usual overnight flareup produced lots of bursting convection very near the LLCC, leading to the beginnings of a nice Central Dense Overcast (CDO), usually a harbinger of further intensification.

So the short term expectation is some strengthening, perhaps more than is officially forecast, especially if the SHIPS has the better handle on the situation.

But in the mid to long term, cooler SST's and lower oceanic heat content should preclude further strengthening and will ultimately lead to steady weakening.

So it's unlikely that 'Blanca' will become a major hurricane, if it becomes a hurricane at all.

All in all, though, it appears that the Pacific activity is picking up, with a very active ITCZ and several strong waves.

Stay tuned for further developments ...

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