HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Sep 11 2003 12:46 AM
isabel challenge 2

on september 6th, ed dunham gave us the isabel challenge.. the challenge was to use your amateur forecasting skill and place the center of the storm to within two degrees and intensity to within 10kt on 12z september 13th... on at the time a lowly tropical storm in the eastern atlantic. right now it looks like storm cooper will come closest, as his position isn't far removed from the nhc's forecast. if the intensity isn't signicantly lower by then, everybody busts, as no one guessed higher than 110kt.
but, here's another opportunity to place isabel a week out:
where will isabel be to within 2 degrees, and how strong will the storm be to within 10kt, at 00z on 18 september (thats 8pm eastern wed. september 17th)? post any time tomorrow.
HF 0445z11september


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Sep 11 2003 01:00 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

i'll go first.
isabel 00z18september
29N 77W
120kt
i'm obviously reasoning isabel will make landfall, and think it will be a major hurricane. in this case i'm picking the odd zone between daytona and charleston for landfall, which is a rare area for a big storm to go. but i'll chance it.
HF 0501z11september


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2003 01:12 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

I'm gonna go with a fish spinner and send the storm out to sea as it approached the Bahamas.

30N 74W 95K

My first instinct was that it wasn't even going to make it that far west and we'd be looking at 71W....


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 11 2003 01:33 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

27N 78W, 95knots

(First inclination was 28.6N/79.4W)

Steve


Storm Cooper
(User)
Thu Sep 11 2003 06:29 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Isabel September 18, 2003 @ 00Z

23.7 / 71.6 100 knots


FlaRebel
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 11 2003 07:28 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

28.2 N 78.7 W
120 MPH


clyde w.
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:38 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

27.5N
77.5W
115 kts


jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:43 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

27.5N
76.1W
110 knots


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 11 2003 10:16 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

74.2W
28.3N
115knots
heading just a tad north of wnw
trending slightly downward in intensity



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 11 2003 10:37 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

My answer for the challenge: 28.5 N, 78.5 W at 112 Kts (off the coast of the Georgia-Florida border). Prediction sidenote: I am up here in VA Beach, getting married on Sept 20....outside. So, of course, my prediction stalls Isabel for a day or 2 off the coast, then she heads north, aided by that slowly moving advancing front. Isabel makes landfall near the SC/NC Border on Sept 21 -Sunday and curls out to sea over eastern VA on Monday-Sept 22. Naturally, this assessment is based on my past experiences with emily, fran and other she storms not on my bad luck of planning a wedding during mid Sept.

javlin
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 11 2003 10:49 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

27N 79W NoGap,GFS show hole thier on day 7 on 500hpa there almost all models are keeping Izzy low with slight been N at 120hrs.110knts

Jim M
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 11 2003 04:18 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

29.8N 78.9W 95kts

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:12 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

This is tough....many, many possibilities.

I don't think Isabel will have made landfall at that point in time. I do think it'll be near the Gulf Stream, and I don't buy a substantial weakening trend between now and then.

My best guess? A WNW trend for the first few days, with a slow forward speed, followed by some jogs both NW and W. As for a position and intensity estimate?

28N, 76W, 120kt.

My best guess for beyond that places the greatest threat between Wilmington and Daytona Beach...my eventual track thinking is not far off from HF, in calling for a possible uncharacteristic landfall region.

But with this kind of forecast, I'm probably way off!


Storm Cooper
(User)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:19 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

In reality, mine anyway...I still hold to a position @ 9/13 12z of 22.8 / 63.2 @ 95knots. I see I may come close on track but may blow the kt/mb. I would like to see a turn north and it still may happen but as of this am I see it as I posted this am at 23.7 / 71.6 9-18 00z. Maybe the factors will be very different then and let her spin fish

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:21 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Here's what I think....

26.4N
74.1W

Max winds..... 110K
Direction WNW at 9K with a forecast to shift to a more NW direction... potential impact to SC and/or NC...


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:37 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

23.5n 69.9w 115 knots

Hope I'm wrong and its farther North and East.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:42 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Well its time to sign in. Did this at work so I'll probably go down in flames with it because of the recent slowdown (but I'll have lots of good company). 18/12Z 28.5N 76.9W 115kts
Moving NNW at 14kts.
Guess it would help if I forecasted for the correct time:
18/00Z 27.5N 75.5W 115kts
Cheers,
ED


Storm Cooper
(User)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:54 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Yep! Some of us be burning, that is the way it goes I guess. I feel pretty good about it right now but..time...time...time!

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:58 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Wow. There are a lot of similar predictions (relatively similar on a global/oceanic scale). It seems as though everyone has it south of the GA/FL border - a bit East of C-N FL, some further south. Everyone's got it at least as a Cat 2 - mine may be underdone @ 95knots.

As for the ultimate landfall, I've already put mine out in the last news article. I'm calling for landfall between Charleston and Wrightsville Beach next weekend (Sunday - no way to tell). As noted in that thread, Super Typhoon Maemi offers a shot at some real clues 6-10 days downstream in the US. It doesn't often happen this close, but you might recall both of the storms originally were bottom heavy, and both developed into classic, intense storms.

I guess we'll see.

Awesome indeed.

Steve


joepub1a
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:59 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

27.2N 78.5 W 105 kts.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 11 2003 09:05 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

So you are saying you think it will landfall in Melbourne?

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Sep 11 2003 09:15 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Not even close - look at the movement that I posted for the 12Z position. Its way too early to say where this one is heading.
ED


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 11 2003 09:53 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

I'll place it at 26.2 N 75.2 W with winds at 115 kts.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Sep 11 2003 10:20 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

No Ed is Offshore Melbourne by a couple of degrees, probably heading to the Carolinas. All of these are too close for comfort though as we're at 28N/80.1W.. that's not my guess. I'll say 26.2N/74W, moving NW at 10 knts; 95knots.

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 11 2003 11:36 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2


Why not....

31.7N 80.5W ... just off the GA/SC border.
120MPH

Allison



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 12 2003 08:00 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Gee, thanks Alison.

Bill here at 32N 80W


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 12 2003 01:48 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

ah, don't worry bill. ssts around 80F in georgia coastal waters.. so anything strong would probably be on the slide when it comes in...? unless bastardi's perpendicular coast-strike gradient tightening comes into play...
well, i used to live in hinesville.. savannah hasn't taken a good hard lick since the 1800s, with an odd 1 or 2 every 20-30 years in the 20th century. sorry to say you guys are long overdue.
HF 1748z12september


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 12 2003 01:49 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

around 500 views, and less than 20 guesses? come on, thought you guys were braver than that.
HF 1750z12september


Allison
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 12 2003 02:16 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Sorry Bill B... but it should encourage you to know that I have no meteorological training whatsoever, and my guess is based almost entirely on the similar-tracked hurricane of 1893...

The phrase "grain of salt" comes to mind...

Allison



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 12 2003 06:47 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

33.0
78.2
95knts


BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 13 2003 09:35 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

28/76 115k

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sat Sep 13 2003 08:05 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Major error on my part I just noticed running new software and imputing...... I should have said 27.3 NOT 23.7. My mistake so you can discount me from the running if you wish. I just kept looking a 23.7 then at my map w/ my plot and I said to myself this does not add up Anyway 27.3 / 71.6 @ 100kts. for the record.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Sep 14 2003 01:16 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

storm cooper, for attempting to cheat i hereby banish you from the competition. do not pass go, do not collect $200.
nah, considering you nearly nailed the last one, and played it conservative.. i saw your post and wondered what the hell you were doing. anyhow, this is just for fun.. not like you can be 'disqualified' or anything. to be honest, you need not be anything more than lucky to win at this, if you know just a little about how hurricanes behave.. of course if you get things right all the time or go through and explain your forecast philosophy and it checks out.. well, then you might start turning heads. that's what this is all about, getting better at our hobby.
HF 0517z14september


prideman
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 14 2003 01:40 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

78.8
31.5
125knts
I know I am late, but I am a newbie in here to so figure I would throw in a free shot to get warmed up. I just don't see it turning north with the models. This thing is gonna have a mind of its own.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Sep 16 2003 06:31 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Well I think I am as close as I will get at this point right now

Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Sep 16 2003 09:42 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

OK..landfall. I am thinking more like about 60hrs out from now...34.6 / 76.8, 100 knots, 990mb

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 16 2003 09:53 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Well if she sits still for another day I'll pretty much have her pegged She is only a few degrees off my guess and only 5 knots too much...and they keep saying they are being generous. *does the how did I guess this dance*

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 17 2003 09:56 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

safe to say you've gotten closest.. you will be a little southwest of the 8pm position, but within 2 degrees. your forecast intensity is on the money unless something big happens today. nice job, domino.
HF 1356z17september


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 17 2003 08:29 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

Out of 22 who threw out prognostications, 5 were within range on latitude, and 7 were within range on longitude.
5 had the intensity pegged.
4 had two of three of the parameters.
But only Domino had all three.
Off by a degree and a half of latitude, 0.4 degrees of long and dead on on intensity.
Good job, Domino!
Tell us your secret!


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 17 2003 10:21 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

My secret is so deep that not even I know it I've been dining off crow for a year or two on here now...about time I got to have some prime rib.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 17 2003 11:49 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

domino, how does it feel to beat the nhc? don't be too bashful, you made a good call.
HF 0350z18september


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 18 2003 01:32 AM
Re: isabel challenge 2

I have to give everyone on this site credit for this one... before I came here all I knew was that a hurricane was a bunch of wind. Everyone here has done a great job helping and I've learned quite a bit from you all over the past couple years. Now if I can just predict what the weather will be like in the Bahamas for my cruise next week...


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