| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 17 2003 02:36 AM |
Isabel Landfall Prediction
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It now looks pretty imminent that we are less than 48 hours from a landfalling hurricane. I think its time to roll up our sleeves and give our best estimation of location and strength at landfall. As I see there is no Avery Island (a la Lili) option for me, here is my best guess on Isabel's future track:
Landfall: Cedar Island, NC, with secondary landfall at Bellhaven
Time: 2:00 pm, 9/18/03
Winds: 120mph
Anyone else care to wager a guess?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 17 2003 04:29 AM |
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Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
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why not. morehead city, carteret county.
13:30 local thu 18 september.
winds 100kt at landfall, min central pressure 951mb.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 17 2003 05:46 AM |
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Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
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Okay I'm thinking its gonna go right of the projected and right up Chesapeake Bay. I'm gonna call for it to cross Cape Charles and Eastville at 1600 Local 18th September with a min pressure of 948 and winds of 105kt.
*note at the time of this posting my gut instinct was that Izzy is getting pushed out to sea and is gonna go spin fish till she is shorn apart. All the models say I'm wrong...and the closest to my guesticast is the BAMM...only positive thing is I was almost dead on the Izzy Challenge 2.
| jeff |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 17 2003 01:18 PM |
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Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
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i agree chesapeke bay i just feel like the gulf stream will have some northward pull on storm
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 17 2003 01:50 PM |
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Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
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jeff, ocean water doesn't pull weather. ocean currents have climatic effects, and can cause weather to vary at locales over large periods of time.. not a synoptic factor.