| Rainband |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jun 13 2003 11:35 PM |
Degree of complacency
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Does anyone feel the lack of a landfalling hurricane in some areas and near misses in others increases the degree of complacency. In my area I feel this is a big problem..The Tampa-bay area has had several times where we were in the cone and then the last minute removed.. I hope everyone takes this season seriously..It may be an interesting one!!
Johnathan
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 13 2003 11:44 PM |
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Re: Degree of complacency
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Absolutely. But I'll say this, New Orleans responded to Georges in 1998 unlike anything they've done here in a long time. The flooding from Tropical Storm Frances woke everyone up, and hundreds of thousands of people were out of town for Georges. Very few people evacuated for Lili for whatever reason. I don't think most of them saw the threat here. We got a bunch of feeder bands, but it wasn't that bad. And that's part of what breeds complacency. There's no evacuating SE and SC Louisiana in total. Too many people have no way out, and plenty more don't want to get stuck on a 2 lane highway or interstate which is all we have moving out east, north or west.
Steve
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jun 15 2003 02:58 AM |
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Re: Degree of complacency
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I think its in a lot of areas. In the brevard county , fl area
Cocoa Beach/Space center etc. the last real storm was in 1995, Erin.
Floyd not hitting here actually made people mad. They were mad that they had evacuated only for it to curve away form the area. Bertha in 96 curverd as well in a similar forcast to Floyd.
In the Viera area just W of I 95 central part of the county, homes have sprouted up like rabbit babies. Cocoa Beach has had a few new multi story condos go up since then Erin. Most of the people living in these homes and condos werent here in 95 ( Erin) to know that they can and do hit this area. The wierd urban local legend that the cape reflects the storms away from the area isnt a help either.
Sadly it takes a big storm hitting to wake people up. Then its too late
| Jason M |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jun 15 2003 05:27 AM |
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Re: Degree of complacency
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Nobody evacuated for Lili because the local mets downplayed our chances of development....they took a big risk.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 17 2003 08:20 PM |
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Cities of complacency... Tampa must rank #1 after Savannah
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If there is one city that must be way overdue for a direct hit it would have to be Tampa. I would venture to say that most the people on this board have been born after the last strong storm hit Tampa head on.
Usually now days if Tampa even gets in the cone it almost always comes in to the north along the big bend sparing a metropolis built on the edge of the water and the bay a test of building standards and preparation readiness.
Everyone shopping for Andrew in Miami was singing the David blues.. "turns right before" and after almost 30 years of not having a real storm hit down Miami was about as complacent as it comes. Imagine Tampa, which has gone longer would be even worse. Really amazing no big storm has made landfall..does happen, they aren't all that protected.
Savannah and Jax people on boards usually sing the "won't hit us blues"
New Orleans I think is all too aware of what could happen with a direct hit and has had enough scares.
Comes a day that no one in Tampa can hide and that day is coming. Know Neil Frank was singing about the construction between Naples and Tampa quite a while back...and ...still nothing has hit them directly.
Amazing but that luck won't last forever.
Triva question...when was the last REAL direct hit on Tampa, not something brushing by on its way elsewhere. A real Category 1 2 or 3?
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Jun 18 2003 01:17 AM |
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Re: Cities of complacency... Tampa must rank #1 after Savannah
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Well I don't know if it was the last one or not, but I know that Tampa had a direct hit during the afternoon/evening of October 25, 1921, with sustained winds of 90 knots (Cat II). Pressure was 952mb. Storm moved northeast across the state close to Orlando and exited into the Atlantic about 25 miles north of Titusville.
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 18 2003 03:08 AM |
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1921
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Thanks Ed..that is pretty much what I thought. 1921 is a long time ago.. wondered if that was correct. Seems geography has some play in the climo of how rarely they get hit by bigger storms..
Up in the big bend area and the panhandle history has unleashed many large hurricanes .. much stronger than Cat 2 that you are referring to... should look back over a few old books and see if I can find more.
Suppose at that point they are hit by weaker late season storms catching cold fronts across the state.
long time ago Ed, a really long time ago
Bobbi
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 18 2003 03:34 PM |
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Re: 1921
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it may havce been Hurricane Easy in the early 50's but no matter, Lois is right on...when you are experiencing a CAT III or higher, it is a whole different game than a TS, I or II, and that is all the Florida west coast has seen in my lifetime there (57 yrs.)...It may not be complancency as much as just pure lack of understanding. EDS>