| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Mar 31 2005 11:45 PM |
Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
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http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/april2005/
Read the whole report and you will find very interesting anaylisis about why he increases the numbers.It is not a surprise that he upgraded his numbers as at the recent conference there were hints of doing so.So let's prepare for another busy season folks.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Mar 31 2005 11:46 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
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at long last!
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 7
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 135
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed May 11 2005 04:57 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
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Here I was breathing a very premature sigh of relief, thinking that the Louisiana and GOM region was in the clear this year. Now yall did tell me many times before never count my chickens before they hatch. I went to that link and read on, and I am now like HOLY BLEEP BATMAN!!
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 11 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
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There will be another update on May 31st or so. That update should bring a bit more clarity to the 2005 season. However, I also understand that this year we will take into consideration the results of the 'British' model used for forecasting the season and projected impacted areas sometime in Auguist. Does anyone know about this new development?
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed May 11 2005 07:01 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=st...eweatherclimate
This is the information you are looking for.Interesting to read about those new methods to do more presice forecasts.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 11 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
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Thanks!
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed May 11 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
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Interesting article… I saw something like it in the local paper.
I think we place such an artistic emphasis on hurricanes and their global relations that we in some sense refuse to let ourselves understand them. It is almost as if such knowledge could only lead to disaster. Are hurricanes beyond understanding? Yes, you have trade wind patterns, enso, etc, but when it really comes down to it, what do we really know? I suppose, to quote Sophocles, "we shall either find what we are looking for, or we shall free ourselves from the persuasion that we know what we do not know."