Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri May 13 2005 01:27 PM |
Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Very little change from my Initial Outlook posted on January15th. Easterly waves exiting the west coast of Africa have started a little sooner this year and the cooler SSTs along the southeast coast (and a few areas of the Gulf) suggest that the mid Atlantic ridge will be at least as strong as it was last season. Both of these factors would imply an active Cape Verde season. No significant overall pattern change from the 2004 season. Primary threat areas remain unchanged and include the entire Texas/Louisiana coast, south Florida, and the eastern Carolina coasts...and the eastern Caribbean islands. No change in my analog years, and only a minor adjustment to 12/7/3 in my seasonal forecast.
Now its your turn to provide or adjust your seasonal forecast. If you've already made your forecast on the Main Page, please repeat your numbers on this thread - it makes my job of end-of-season analysis a little easier if all of the forecasts are in the same place.
Here are the groundrules:
1. Only forecasts from registered Users will be tallied.
2. You must make your forecast before June 1st - any adjustments made after May 31st will be ignored.
3. You can provide rationale for your forecast if you wish, but it is not a requirement to do so.
4. Use a 'reply' to this post to make your forecast.
There is also another 'educated guess' activity that we have fun with. Normally we attempt to predict the date of the first 'named' storm, but this year I'm going to change it a little and ask you to guess at the date of the first named 'hurricane' of the season in the Atlantic basin (includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea). The same rules apply as stated above. I've already got a date in mind (got very lucky with this last year - and don't expect to do as well this year), but I'm going to hold off on posting my date for awhile.
Finally, there is an Area of Interest in the SW Caribbean Sea north of Panama. Nocturnal convection has again flared up in this area. Low-level convergence coupled with divergence aloft is centered near 12N 81W at 12Z today - with little movement. SSTs are at 28.5C with light westerly shear that rapidly strengthens to the north of the strong convection. I do not anticipate any significant development of this system.
Good Luck with your forecasts!
Cheers,
ED
Added on 05/23: First hurricane on 07/18 (very low confidence in the date this year).
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 02:44 PM |
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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My numbers are 12/7/3 and I haved sticked with them since march and no more changes to them.
First hurricane IMO will form on the 6th of August.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 13 2005 04:21 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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My forcast 13/7/4.........First hurricane July 28th.......Weatherchef
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 13 2005 04:33 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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My final 2005 forecast is 14-8-4. The first hurricane will impact on July 15th for no particular reason only that it is a memorable date.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 04:54 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Hi Everyone, I hope you have had a nice peaceful off season. I thought this year I would try my hand at this so.....12/8/4.. and first storm 6/14.
Don't ask my why, just going with my gut and what I have been reading.
Dawn
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 13 2005 06:07 PM |
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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13/8/4. First named hurricane August 15, 2005. 3 landfalling tropical cyclones for Florida.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri May 13 2005 10:23 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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17/11/5. That's including anything with a subtropical classification.
First hurricane date is July 6th.
HF 2324z13may
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 13 2005 10:43 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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14/7/4
I also have the date August 15 on my mind.
Based on my "studies" (from you all of course!), believe that it will be an active year and things will be steered toward Florida once again. Kind of waiting for things to heat up and dreading it all at the same time.
That's my story and I'm stickin' to it!
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat May 14 2005 06:31 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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13/8/6, July 19th.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 15 2005 02:25 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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My 2005 Numbers are 17/8/5....first hurricane....july 2nd
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun May 15 2005 09:41 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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No real big changes from my previous forecast, except to bump all of the numbers up one, from 13/7/3 to 14/8/4. I believe we'll see a subtropical cyclone influence the total number of storms, while I feel we'll have a good shot at above-normal hurricane activity. Warm SSTs in the central Atlantic coupled with statistical trends over the past few seasons and what should be rapidly warming SSTs in the western Atlantic over the next few weeks provide my primary justification. Shear values are still high across the basin, but moving north with time.
I feel we will see a season that matches historical norms in terms of seasonal distribution -- a couple of early storms, the bulk of activity from 1 August through 15 October, and one or maybe two late season storms (including, perhaps, the aforementioned subtropical cyclone). This is a departure from the past few seasons, where activity has waited until closer to the peak of the season to really get going. I do not feel that this season will wait until 31 July to get started, unlike last year. With an early season storm likely, I am going to go fairly early in terms of the first hurricane date, naming 25 June as my target.
Landfall prediction is a fool's errand, but I get the feeling that this season will feature a good number of long-track Cape Verde storms, inherently increasing the risk to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the Outer Banks. Other than that, however, I am not willing to venture a guess as to other potential targets; there is simply no skill.
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon May 16 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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15/7/4
1st named Hurricane - Aug 1, 2005
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 16 2005 09:13 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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2005 season prediction: 12 / 6 / 3
First named hurricane: August 5
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue May 17 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Sorry Ed, I did change my projections for 2005.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 12:13 AM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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My forecast is 12/6/4 and will remain so, I'm going to say we have our first named system by June 10th...based on the fact that we already have something spinning around, and the numerous forecasts going out that say we will have an above average year. I think that SOI signal might be going somewhere...just pure gut.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 12:18 AM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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well...last year i went with 14/8/3 (day before gray did) and we got 15/9/6! earlier this year i went low, but i think ima bump up my numbers for this season...already seems to be getting a bit active and ima shoot for an early season cane this time around...
therefore...14/7/4...and may they all spin the fishes and stay the hell away from Florida and the East Coast!
First named Hurricane...June 22nd
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 12:20 AM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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i have to agree with phil on this...stay the hell away...
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:38 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Wishing and hoping is good , but when it comes down to basics, we who live in Florida and the islands need to keep our guard up. Ask Lysis and Cycloneye , they`ll tell ya......Bottom line. be prepared....Weatherchef
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 02:42 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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you know bc i totally agree with you, last year it was craziness...this year i have the website i can count on ...dont want to take any chances and would like to as much in advance as possible...i experienced my first hurricane season last year...definetly dont want a repeat of tryign to prepare...and yes i am well aware of living in florida, hurricanes are something you must deal with...and i know where i live in tampa bay is due for a big one...lol...too many people have told me that not to think that...lol...well thats my thought for the day....
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Its crazy to try and predict where a storm is going to impact. Every place that hasn`t had any tropical action in one or more decades, the word goes out that " we`re do for the big one this year". You just don`t know. Being Floridians, odds are that we stand to see a little more action than other areas. Its just the way it is. On a positive note, you now have the CFHC to help you get throught the summer. Its a great forum........Weatherchef
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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please keep this page free from chatter and stick to predictions! thanks...use the pm feature if you want to chat or find a more appropriate forum. i don't want ed to have to move your posts! thanks!
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 03:24 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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im very sorry phil i will definetly leave this forum alone...lol...thanks for the heads up
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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10-4........Weatherchef
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue May 17 2005 06:46 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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last change (update)
My 2005 Numbers are 17/8/5....first hurricane....may 22nd
(before season) (durning season)..... july 23rd
first named storm for atl..... may 20th, 2005
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 17 2005 07:04 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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15/8/5
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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It's not quite pulling numbers out of a hat, but it's close here are my thoughts:
I think the current trend of relatively above average SST's will continue for the summer months. Enhancing any storms that make it to hurricane status.. With neutral conditions otherwise, I think we're going to see the following breakdown:
18 Depressions
14 Tropical Storms and 2 Subtropical Storms (16 total)
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
Ok now why these numbers?
let's look at the last few years:
Cat 04 03 02 01 00
TS 15 16 13 15 15
HC 09 07 04 09 08
So I'm fully expecting about the same TS/ST development. I'm also expecting anything that gets going will have a generally neutral development but with warm SST's will still be able to ramp up to a minimal hurricane (ergo, the high number of hurricanes projected). I also expect the hurricanes to have enough warm ocean water to reach major hurricane status about half the time. So, it'll be busy, I really expect to see one Subtropical storm at the start of the season and one at the end of the season. That's also symptomatic of both warmer SST's in colder weather, leading to hybrid/transitional systems, as well as better understanding and diagnosis of when a storm is a Subtropical system. My gut is also telling me that 6 Major hurricanes seems high, but Last year there was 5, and it seems viable to have one more.
Take care and I'll be wishcasting for all fishspinners and a lot of fireworks but no damage.
-Mark
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue May 17 2005 09:23 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Here's mine
15/10/5
We will probably see our first named storm mid June
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:30 AM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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I will say 15/ 8/ 4. It's warm and getting warmer. First named storm will be around June 11th, because that's when I leave from Florida for Vermont and after the Treasure Coast getting slapped by two last year, why not have some weather to worry about while on vacation?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 06:07 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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This was originally posted by RABBIT...i had tried to move it to this forum, but i screwed something up...here are his predictions for 2005:
"JUNE 1S
JULY 2S/1H
AUG 4S/3S/2MH
SEP 5S/3H/2MH
OCT 3S/2H/1MH
NOV 1S
total: 16/9/5
i will not alter the monthly forecasts at all after now but the overall numbers will be subject to change, since they are going by month
(ex.--i expect 9 storms after 8-31, totaling 16; if we have 3 in July and 6 in August, the total forecast for the season will be 18)
that said, i will also raise the expected number to 17 if Adrian does indeed become Arlene"
again...this post belongs to Rabbit.
Rabbit...i apologize for screwing up your post placement...i'm still trying to get used to moving posts to their appropriate place...
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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what the hey...
15 / 7 / 5
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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ok well since im new to this...im gonna give it a shot....im gonna go for(i think)...(key word=think) 17 storms......5 hurricanes...and maybe 4 major hurricanes...but what do i know?...lucky guess i guess....so here it is
17/5/4 Becky
| vbhoutex |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri May 27 2005 08:39 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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With the new information I have seen of late, I must raise my numbers to 14/9/5. I initially thought we would have a more "normal" season, with 13/7/4. It has become very apparent that there is almost no chance of any EL Nino beginning soon enough to slow this season and with SST's continuing to rise and already being above normal it appears we could be in for a record year in some aspects.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun May 29 2005 10:26 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Just a reminder that you only have a couple of days left if you wish to join in on this exercise. If you have posted your seasonal forecast elsewhere, please repeat it on this thread before June 1st. Looks like another busy season, but I'll leave my numbers as is.
Cheers,
ED
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun May 29 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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As is... 12/7/4... 1st storm... June 20 ish
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 30 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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Let's see... 14/7/4... first storm, July 8th.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 30 2005 01:49 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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15/9/5
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon May 30 2005 05:29 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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I`ve been watching some convection moving into the western gulf today. Its part of the same weather system that moved through Charleston this morning I believe. Is it possible that anything tropical might evolve from those storms in the near future ?...Weatherchef
| Rob_M |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon May 30 2005 11:25 PM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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15/8/4
First hurricane...July 14 (just a guess, but I do think it'll be sometime in July)
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:07 AM |
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Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
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July 6th... booyeah.
HF 0507z07july
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 10:20 PM |
First Hurricane of the Season
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Well...he comes out of the woodwork to claim victory - as he should. Nice job! Kudos also to Terra (July 8th) - pretty close.
ED
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:08 AM |
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Re: First Hurricane of the Season
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I came so very close with arlene; I think I actually jynxed myself. Anywho, excellent job Terra and to a lesser extent HF, who came in 2nd place.