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98L.Invest
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already has a nice swirl
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Jamiewx
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:47 PM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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NHC Discussion segment on 98L
"CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1013 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. THIS LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WITH BANDING FEATURES COMING ON THE N SIDE AND QUIKSCAT INDICATING A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER CONVECTION REMAINS MEAGER AS THE SYSTEM IS
ENTANGLED WITH A LOT OF MID/UPPER DRY AIR. "
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 06:48 PM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2005
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Re: 98L.Invest
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thanks
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FlaMommy
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Jul 09 2005 07:11 PM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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NOT ALREADY!!!!!! 
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Yikes! Can't Mother Nature at least wait until Dennis has made landfall? Reminds me of last year a bit. I lived in Orlando then, we would just get our power back and schools would resume from one hurricane, when the next one was on its way.
Is it a possibility that the remnants of Dennis could help push this area away from the continental US?
Thanks for the map also. I know the forecast will greatly change over the next week, as when the first models on Dennis came out, it appeared he was on a much different path than he actually took.
I guess we have to brace ourselves. It's a long season. No sense in getting worked up about a storm until we have to. I really enjoy tracking the storms... I just wish I could track them from Iowa or Kansas, our somewhere where my own home wasn't in danger.
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Re: 98L.Invest
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not nuch convection with it but has a well defined axis. long as it keeps this for now watch out. lack of convection maybe due to the SAL (saharan air layer) here some images of the SAL
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Re: 98L.Invest
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sorry the site is down i'll try to get somewhere else
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Re: 98L.Invest
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there is some convection firing now. and look at the wave currently comming off the coast of africa in this shot
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Re: 98L.Invest
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What's a good site to get the latest updates on waves, such as 98L?
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Jamiewx
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 12:20 AM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Here are some links for invest info
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
If the above does not work this is an alternative
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
PCBeach Weather-Tropics
CIMSS Tropical Cyclones
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Re: 98L.Invest
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those are the site i would have suggested oh well lol 
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Wow, thanks! Much appreciated.
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Girlnascar
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 03:01 AM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Did anyone just hear Fox weather local Orlando affiliate just now talk about the 2 waves coming off Africa. They said that no need to worry about those that the water is too cool right now to develop? When I heard Dr Lyons earlier mention them both and seemed to infer something there to be watching?
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Jamiewx
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 03:04 AM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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May have to wait until the waves get to about 45 to 50 West before anything significant occurs with them.
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Re: 98L.Invest
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At least with these two, it appears (now) that the Gulf of Mexico will be spared.
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BillD
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(User)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 03:29 AM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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If you look at the models, the high backs off way to the east and it is likely the first one will be a fish spinner. Not sure about the second one, but it is so close behind the first that it, too, will likely be a fish spinner.
Bill
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Quote:
If you look at the models, the high backs off way to the east and it is likely the first one will be a fish spinner. Not sure about the second one, but it is so close behind the first that it, too, will likely be a fish spinner.
Bill
As close as they are, they also may interfere with each other's development.
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yecatsjg
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(Weather Watcher)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 05:36 PM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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I have wondered about that -- being that close together what effect do they have on each other?
Stacey
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 05:47 PM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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One would usually take hold over the other and cause it to weaken, whether through shear (from outflow) or assimilation of the weaker system. However, these two "systems" are 20 degrees longitude apart from each other at this time, making any impacts on each somewhat unlikely at this time. The biggest impact down the line could come if the first wave develops into a significant entity and churns up the waters behind it for the other system -- really, if we get two systems out there now, I don't think the waters would be able to support much more for awhile, but then again...this is the 2005 hurricane season.
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Re: 98L.Invest
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disagree. there's another thread with the same topic... the gfs recurves the second one... typical knee-jerk response. most of the globals are tracking the energy of the leader east to florida. the second revs up (more than it will) early on and gets latitude, finds a trough weakness and goes up near bermuda.
problem is, the first one is developing and will respond differently. it may indeed end up near florida, or perhaps a little further north. the second one i'm holding the jury on; if it gets strong, yeah, that ridge weakness scenario looks right. but i'm fairly sure it will be on a lower trajectory path as well. since nothing has the storm out in front of it right, i don't reckon it has the environment for the second...
ah anyway, what do i know. i am pulling for a hurricane or near hurricane in the islands on july 14th, and perhaps a sixth tropical cyclone of the season around mid-month.
okay, no more wacky scenarios.
HF 1855z10july
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Re: 98L.Invest
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So far this season has been 4 for 4... four systems... four making landfall. As long as these two stay on a more northerly path and not into the Gulf, I'll be happy.
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cjzydeco
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Jul 10 2005 09:17 PM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
Looks like more sleepless nights spent glued to the computer by late next week.
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Are we to infer that we have a similar....I said similar, not exactly the same, setup as last year with Strong High Pressure dominating the Atl? It seems that it may even be more dramatic forcing more Hurricanes into the Gulf and further to the Central and Western Gulf states.
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Re: 98L.Invest
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If this season does not slow down my wife is going to kill me LOL
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon Jul 11 2005 03:32 AM
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Re: 98L.Invest
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Tazmanian, I know what you mean!!! haha. I dont think its going to get any better...
My site: Hurricane News
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Re: 98L.Invest
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I hear you. I`m lucky mine didn`t kill me last year. Looks T-5 might get into the Bahamas next week as a hurricane. Its are turn to battle here on the east coast it looks like. Early next week might be very interesting for Florida again. 2005 is with out a doubt going to be a monster year when it comes to the tropics I believe. Us Floridians need to be ready for the next round. The Cape Verde`s are coming and theres nothing we can do to stop them. Just be prepared.........Weatherchef
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