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Cycloneye11
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Thu Aug 18 2005 08:02 PM
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Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September?
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My view about this is that he will lower his numbers by 2 or 3 based in the not so active august.
What do the members think about him lowering the numbers or not from the 20 he had in the early august update?
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Thu Aug 18 2005 08:48 PM
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Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September?
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If August turns out to not be as active as he called for -- I think he said 5 storms in the month -- then perhaps. As of right now, we've got about 2wks left in the month and two storms down. Given climatology, at least one more is a good bet...given model guidance and current conditions, two more isn't out of the realm of possibility within the next week. It all depends on how the rest of the month plays out, but I expect any changes to be relatively minor.
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Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September?
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i dunno cyc. if we get an activity burst (the type where there are three named storms at once), the month is taken care of. that usually happens in aug/sep in years such as this. he could add a storm just as easily as take one away.
HF 0234z19august
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native
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(Weather Guru)
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Fri Aug 19 2005 02:05 PM
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Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September?
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IMO, the month is young. Still 11 days left. With this crazy season and the conditions in the basins...alot can happen in 11 days. Although, I like the idea of it! Less storms would be great!
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Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September?
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Yes. He increased it do to an active July and he will decrease do to a quiet August.
lets assess how quiet august has been around, say, the 29th or 30th. this time of year is when things like to be crazygonuts. -HF
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Keith234
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(Storm Chaser)
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Sun Aug 21 2005 04:30 PM
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Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September?
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Dr. Gray is not that fickle, but it is hard to make forecasts and not have anything happen with all seeing public starring you down.
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Invest AAL 97 ???
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I was checking out UCF`s hurricane and typhoon tracking page and they have a impact map of AAL 97. It was updated Aug 22nd at 09:10:39 EDT. The tract has the system possibily near or on the south east coast of Florida in 120 hours from what I see as a TD or a TS according to the wind speed color codes. Just wondering if I`m reading things right. It caught my interest this morning..........Weatherchef web page
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Mon Aug 22 2005 08:40 PM
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Re: Invest AAL 97 ???
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Note that the initial time on that one is the 4th of the month at 18z. It's an old run, and given the set of storms we've had this year, probably Emily (though I don't remember all of the invests for each storm). 97L is much further north than that and will be well beyond there by Sept 4th.
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Rabbit
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 23 2005 07:27 PM
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Re: Invest AAL 97 ???
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Dr Gray will not lower his numbers, given we are still ahead of the record at the moment; the way things are going we will break the record for K and L (both August 28), so i think he will keep his numbers the same
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