Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 05:44 AM |
Area of Concern - Tropical Depression 12
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Tropical Depression 12 currently near Great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas and moving slowly to the northwest. The TD is poorly organized and a narrow zone of mid-level southerly winds to the immediate west of the center will disrupt any rapid development of this cyclone. A strong high pressure system (at least strong for Summer) presents a blocking pattern to the north of the system for the next few days. The southerly shear should relax by Wednesday evening after which slow intensification seems likely. I'll stick my neck out and say that I don't think that TD 12/Katrina? will ever sample the waters of the Gulf. Steering currents are very weak and expected to remain that way, and if the GFS solution is wrong, it is at least consistently wrong - however, the system will be moving so slowly that there will be plenty of time to better define the eventual track. Right now my biggest concern is with excessive rain rather than high wind for the Florida peninsula.
Cheers,
ED
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:25 PM |
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Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Depression 12
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well, thanks ed. now we've bracketed clark... you know he's going to end up right. my reasoning is that the upper ridge will be a more dominant steering force due to a stronger storm. the outflow pattern around 12/katrina right now indicates that the upper low to the northwest is passing by... the wake anticyclone is now over the eastern/northern part of the storm. got a hunch that they'll line up later today and that the storm will deepen some... i'm thinking pressure around initial landfall will be around 980-984 mb, early afternoon friday.
HF 1225z24august
| reasonmclucus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 06:21 PM |
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Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Depression 12
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If Katrina does cross Florida to the Gulf will the very warm waters there allow it to become a major hurricane. If I'm reading the map right, the tempature along the Gulf Coast is in the top category that goes to 32 C or 90 F.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:26 AM |
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Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Depression 12
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Well... it looks (to me, from the MIA radar) like Katrina is edging a little south of due west over the last hour. It's probably a figment of my imagination, though. In any case, I'd guess initial landfall will be near Ft. Lauderdale. The computers seem all over the place as to where the system will ultimately make landfall along the Gulf coast.