assuming that epsilon was the last storm of the season (which isn't a certainty by any means), the results of the 2005 forecast competition can be tallied. there is also the realistic possibility that cindy will be reanalyzed as a hurricane, and delta may also be... so these numbers could all change.. for the worse.
probably shouldn't be me doing it since my guesses were the closest in both the season numbers and first hurricane date. but that's what happened. the final numbers we used were those given in may, though there are some older predictions from december made, that were either updated or not. the month people last updated is listed, for posterity.
mind you, none of these numbers are pretty. nobody foresaw 2005 as the record hyperactive year that it was until july when the basin started cranking out mean hurricanes and storms earlier than previous seasons of record had.
anyway, here are the standings:
SEASON TOTALS (as of 10 December) 26/14/7
gray's forecast, may 15/8/4, -11/-6/-3, -20
TSRisk, dec 14/8/4, -12/-6/-3, -21
Ed D, may 12/7/3, -14/-7/-4, -25
Clark, may 14/8/4, -12/-6/-3, -21
HF, dec 17/11/5, -9/-3/-2, -14
Keith234, dec 12/6/4, -14/-8/-3, -25
LIPhil, may 14/7/4, -12/-7/-3, -22
James88, dec 13/7/3, -13/-7/-4, -24
Heather, dec 14/7/4, -12/-7/-3, -22
Craig, jan 15/10/6, -11/-4/-1, -16
Javlin, jan 13/8/4, -13/-6/-3, -22
Cycloneye, jan 12/7/3, -14/-7/-4, -25
Matthurricane, feb 15/7/4, -11/-7/-3, -21
JustMe, feb 13/8/4, -13/-6/-3, -22
Katie, mar 11/7/2, -15/-7/-5, -27
Independent Wx, may 15/8/4, -11/-6/-3, -20
Rabbit, may 16/9/5, -10/-5/-2, -17
BCFrancis, may 13/7/4, -13/-7/-3, -23
RMB Joe, may 14/8/4, -12/-6/-3, -21
DM Fischer, may 12/8/4, -14/-6/-3, -23
KN4LF, may 13/8/4, -13/-6/-3, -22
Doombot!, may 13/8/6, -13/-6/-1, -20
StormHunter, may 17/8/5, -9/-6/-2, -17
Liz, may 15/7/4, -11/-7/-3, -21
Joe, may 12/6/3, -14/-8/-4, -26
FlaMommy, may 17/5/4, -9/-9/-3, -21
Hurricane run, may 15/8/5, -11/-6/-2, -19
Bloodstar, may 16/10/6, -10/-4/-1, -15
Trinibaje, may 15/10/5, -11/-4/-2, -17
Sthorne, may 15/8/4, -11/-6/-3, -20
Lysis, may 15/7/5, -11/-7/-2, -20
Vbhoutex, may 14/9/5, -12/-5/-2, -19
StormCooper, may 12/7/4, -14/-7/-3, -24
Terra, may 14/7/4, -12/-7/-3, -22
Ftlaudbob, may 15/9/5, -11/-5/-2, -18
Rob M, may 15/8/4, -11/-6/-3, -20
so, i got the #1... with a huge error but the lowest of the bunch at -14. bloodstar got #2 at -15. craig, who is probably an occasional user, had #3 at -16. rabbit, trinibaje, and stormhunter tied for #4 at -17.
the golden turkey award goes to katie at -27.. who had the audacity to forecast a near normal season. we had nearly twice climatology in nearly every category... and it threw us all for a loop.
the guesses at first hurricane came up good for me, as well. my bet was july 6th, and that was the day dennis was upgraded to hurricane. cindy might post-analyzed as a hurricane... which would be for the evening of july 5th LST... but in zulu time it'll probably be 00z july 6th... so either way. terra bet july 8th and came close. storm hunter had july 2nd, but then took the bait with adrian and went for may 22nd. dang.
well, i screwed up in '04 and got it by default this year. hopefully next year we'll all be closer. but then, you guys who posted on the early '06 thread are all really freakin high, so maybe i should really be hoping that we all bust high.
if we DO get zeta... unnnnhhh... i'll go back and update the numbers again... for the worse. or better yet, just add a footnote: hurricane season storm counts usually read like baseball scores.. where there was some decent offensive work. the game in 2005 was football, and i took the tally before the extra point kick was made.
Whoa! I made a forecast? Don’t seem to remember doing this, but ok.
I must have been basing my numerical thoughts on 04’, just with stronger storms.
Congratulations to all the winners…
(Or should I say least failures?)
I much enjoy reading the preliminaries, and Mariners Weather Log prints all of them sequentially in book form… so check that out if you get a chance.
On post analysis… last year, wasn’t the large majority published in like mid-November?
It must have, because I remember working on a large term paper on Charley and citing it –the time was late October/early November.
Thus far, Arlene, Dennis, Gert, and Lee (he must have taken awhile) are completed. They are using PDF’s this year, which is good.