| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 18 2006 09:43 PM |
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Beryl at 5pm?
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This thread recaptures some posts that were misplaced.
Just wanted to mention, in case anyone wants to try this...I added a link to the mobile NHC web site to my cell phone a couple weeks ago. It works great and you can even see the graphics.
I left the cell phone at home today so I can't check it out until I go home.
But I did try it for one of the eastpac TC and it was neat.
| bob3d |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 18 2006 09:49 PM |
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Re: Beryl at 5pm?
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What is the URL for the "mobile NHC web site"?
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 18 2006 09:55 PM |
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Re: Beryl at 5pm?
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The URL for mobil NHC is:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.wml
| bob3d |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Jul 18 2006 10:07 PM |
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Re: Beryl at 5pm?
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Thanks. Can't get it to work on my cellphone, but its probably a problem with my setup.
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 18 2006 11:56 PM |
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Re: Beryl at 5pm?
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Here's some of the latest recon information
Storm Name: Tropical Storm Beryl
Time: 23:32:40Z
Latitude: 33.8°N
Longitude: 73.4°W
Location: 160 mi SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Max Winds: 47mph
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 1006 mb
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 25
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 33 mi E (101°)
Maximum flight level wind: SSE (148°) @ 52 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 20 mi ENE (71°)
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 70°F at 863 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 73°F at 689 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 70°F
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 19 2006 01:31 AM |
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Re: Beryl Now
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Beryl looks pretty sick now. 2345utc T numbers were 2.0/2.0 which seem appropriate but the 2nd named Atlantic cyclone is having to work for it...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 19 2006 02:03 AM |
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Re: Beryl Now
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Agreed...the convection has been peeled back off the LLC. I can think of a couple reasons why. As the trough approached, the water vapor loop shows some of that very dry air from the southwest was pulled back up and towards the circulation. But primarily it appears the approaching trough might have been enhancing convection earlier, and now is destroying it, same as what happened earlier in the season to Alberto.
Also at the same time, it looks like the LLC has started that curve towards the NW (good call by Stacy this morning, huh), pulling it closer to the oncoming shortwave and possibly hastening the effects.
Wind and seas have been picking up at buoy 41001, which has been in the NE quad of the circulation, pretty far away from the center, but still just under the edge of the remaining convection. Winds up to a steady 23 kts and seas 10 ft.
* * * * * *
This is Avila's diagnosis, from the discussion:
IT SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 19 2006 03:06 AM |
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Re: Beryl Now
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ok people, it's not time to pull the plug on Beryl yet. New IR image shows Beryl gaining convection north and right near the center. I see a possible blow up in that area of the storm tonight as it lifts north and out of the dry air.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 19 2006 03:06 AM |
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Re: Beryl Now
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It really has been attached to a frontal zone the whole time, just not as much as yesterday's feature. It's a subtle designation, though. The approaching upper low from the east will probably start to shear Beryl tomorrow; today, it was just far enough away from the storm to provide a diffluent environment aloft on the eastern side, promoting convective development. Couple that with the approaching shortwave from the NW and Beryl is really between a rock and a hard place.
There's the potential to see a weak vort max form over the Ohio River valley over the next 12hr and swing toward the storm. I don't think this one is want for land; if it gets there, it'll be a weak non-convective vortex steered by the low level flow. Most likely scenario: Beryl gets caught up in the westerlies in the next day or two and heads out to sea. Second-most likely scenario (and not very likely at that): binary interaction with the upper-low to its SE, with the two pivoting around each other. Beryl is accompanied by a mid-level circulation of dubious nature, so it should be deep enough to feel the effects of either feature.
Intensity, as such, should be held in check...NHC on the high end of things with 50kt, I think, for the time being. That intensity is possible, though, as (if) it accelerates to the NE and storm-relative shear decreases before SSTs dramatically cool. For now, though, it's something to watch.
Nothing else out there is threatening tonight.