Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Mar 11 2007 04:09 PM |
The 2007 Outlook
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I'm starting this a little early this year for those of you that want to make a long-range guesstimate. Last year most of the forecasts were way too high - partly influenced by the record season in 2005 and significantly affected by the onset of an unexpected El Nino. There are now enough good indicators to gain some early insight into the upcoming tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic basin. This is simply a follow-on to HanKFranK's previous thread. On March 10th, Tropical Storm Research upped their 2007 outlook to 17/9/4 and their next forecast will be issued on April 3rd. Colorado State University (Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray) called for 14/7/3 in their initial December outlook and their next forecast will be issued on April 5th.
If you want to take a shot a beating the pros on this, get your own forecast in by April 2nd . Add your rationale if you wish, but its not required.
Although we had an early start to the winter season in November, after a mild December and January, the coldest temperatures of the season in the Southeast again occurred in February so I don't see much chance for an early season storm (and that thought will probably come back to haunt me). El Nino has become La Nina in the tropical east Pacific and with the anticipation of less windshear in the tropical Atlantic, an increase in tropical cyclone activity seems likely for the 2007 season.
While a moderate La Nina is expected to be in place for the entire season, it is also worth noting that the positive SST anomalies in the Atlantic are anticipated to decline from May through August. If the tropical Atlantic runs slightly cooler than normal during the upcoming Summer, some of the initial high-side forecasts may not verify.. My own thoughts haven't changed any since January 16th, so I'm going with 14/8/4 this year, with a distribution as follows:
M/J = 0; J = 1; A = 2; S = 5; O = 4; N = 2; D = 0
Analog Years: Difficult to find any - perhaps 1998 comes closest to expectations.
Threat Areas: A broad spectrum this year - including the Gulf coast, the Southeast and the Northeast. I expect an active (but average) Cape Verde season.
Please limit your posts in this thread to your own forecasts and reasoning (if any) for the 2007 season. If you've already posted your thoughts in the previous thread, you can update those forecasts here. We'll use both threads to see who did the best at the end of the season. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Mar 11 2007 08:20 PM |
Re: The 2007 Outlook
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No real rationale here...I have bumped mine up slightly but still running below what is expected. 11/5/2
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Mar 11 2007 10:47 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I believe things are really gonna act up, especially when we have an La Nina coming or could actually be here from what i've been reading. Course, this is only my opinion and we'll have to wait and see what happens when we actually get our storms. So... I still have my numbers set for 18/9/6 "might bump up by April"
- Major Hurricane strike on the Northeast
- Possible "Katrina" like Hurricane somewhere along the Gulf Coast
- Slamming Tropical Storms in Florida, a few Hurricanes
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Mar 12 2007 03:46 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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My December numbers were 13/7/4, but due to the obvious change in circumstances, I think I'll be revising my numbers to 15/9/5.
| VMI Bran |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Mar 12 2007 12:08 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Pure speculation at this point, but I just don't see the La Nina situation kicking in enough to make it that much more of an active season. With that in mind, I'll go slightly above average at 13/7/3.
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Mar 13 2007 02:25 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I have read that La Nina may not be at its strongest until December, so I'll go with 13/6/3.
As far as impact areas, let's see how the Bermuda High sets up.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Mar 15 2007 10:29 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Just saw the local news,And they were saying La Nina is to blame for the very dry conditions in Florida.Looks like La Nina is strong enough NOW to affect the weather.Then again even neutral can be bad news.16/10/5
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Mar 20 2007 05:53 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I wish to weigh anchor and join the multitude making Hurricane seasonal Forecasts.
I really don't believe anyone has significant skill in this arena and last year's forecasts rather clearly bear that out. Hurricanes are not distributed in the Gaussian "bell" curve. Nonetheless, I'll make the forecast the there will be eighteen named storms, including a couple of early ones impacting Florida, due to a strong early Bermuda High and the lack of deep penetration of the late season cold air outbreaks that cool the Atlantic (south of 30 N) and Gulf of Mexico. These coupled with low shear from La Nina will allow a large number of storms to get generated. There will also be more than average hurricanes, and I will predict 10, but above that number the increase in ocean mixing from the hurricanes themselves becomes self-limiting. I will also predict 4 major storms, of which two will make landfall, one near the Florida/Georgia border as a result of a restrengthening Bermuda High as the storm recurves, and another in the Upper Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England.
So the Count is 18/10/4
Have fun...
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Mar 20 2007 06:56 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Basically i forsee an active season number wise this time around with a weak nina to neutral conditions across the atlantic basin.Perdicting were the bermuda high will park itself this season this early in the game is just not possible but if i had to pick a season with similar tracks we might see iam going to go with 2004 with a strong ridge putting florida at an above average risk of seeing several landfalls.What kind of Steering currents might be in place this season?We could either see a troffiness sending everything out to sea as we saw in 06 or will a strong ridge send systems towards florida and the eastcoast.Alot of questions still yet to be answered and will likely remain that way for atleast for another 2-3 months.In my opinion numbers predicted arent really that important because even a quite season can be deadly as we have seen in several ocations with 1992 being a prime example.It only takes one to ruin lives and haveing 25 systems develope this season is not important as the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact.Hopefully the 2007 hurricane season will once again spare our shores.
PS! Use this time wisely and create a hurricane plan for you and your family and know what would you do if your emergency management asked you to evacute and begin trying to get into the mode that in a few months we may once again be faced with the possiblity of a significant event in the united states.Overall my advise get your essentials and dont wait till june1 do it now.
My numbers 15/10/4
| Tak |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Mar 24 2007 12:04 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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15-8-4
I've been watching the Saharan dust activity for the last month and it seems awfully heavy. I dont know if that is normal for this time of year or if it will be persistent.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Mar 25 2007 01:24 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I had to search to see what I'd posted earlier. I'm going with 12/8/4.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 04:33 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I see no reason to dispute TSR which I have found to be fairly reliable but I will average Colo. State and TSR and go with 16/8/4.
Last week's pattern looked very much like a summer one...early start to the season; maybe about a month early (busier July and August than normal) with as many as 8 before Labor day. If La Nina strengthens over the fall then that will support the numbers I have provided.
Who knows where they will go. The recent study published last week concerning analysis of overwash from major storms over an estimated several thousand year period said probability of a direct strike by a major (IV-V) is .3%...
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Mar 30 2007 02:09 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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The latest SST forecast was issued this morning by CPC:
CPC 6-Month SST Forecast
The CPC outlook continues to show a robust La Nina in the eastern tropical Pacific during the Summer but it also indicates a continued cooling trend of the tropical Atlantic during August and September. The accuracy of the forecast is not as significant to me as is the continued trend toward a cooler tropical Atlantic by mid-Summer.
Looking at previous years where a weak El Nino switched to a La Nina ENSO event during the early Spring can also be helpful in developing an outlook for this season. Four representative years are noted, along with the storm totals for those seasons:
1954: 11/8/2
1964: 12/6/6
1970: 10/5/2
1988: 12/5/3
The best analog years from an ENSO viewpoint are 1964 and 1988. Both of these years had an average anomaly of +0.8C during the D/J/F timeframe - as does 2007.
If this cooling trend materializes during the Summer, the chances for late-season activity will decline. My new seasonal distribution is as follows:
M/J = 0; J = 2; A = 4; S = 4; O = 2; N = 1; D = 0
Although I've left the door open for a subtropical system in November, my revised seasonal forecast is 13/7/3 .
Cheers,
ED
| Robert A |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Apr 03 2007 02:25 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I'll go with 17/7/3
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 03 2007 07:30 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I think it is reasonable to say 16/8/4. Looking at El Nino/LaNina only and looking in 2004-2005, I could actually be compelled to go higher. There were 14 in '04, but El Nino shut the season down after Jeanne in late September. As for 2005, it was a Nino neutral year. I do not propose something like 2005 because the trade winds have been to strong to allow for the level of ocean warming we saw in the Atlantic during 2005. Based on current and future forcast water temps, I believe we will see storms forming further in toward the CONUS...that may be a bad trend.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Apr 03 2007 03:18 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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The Colorado State University (Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray) team have issued their April forecast update today - for expected Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Their forecast numbers have increased to 17/9/5 - the same forecast numbers that were issued last April.
ED
Added: 04/03
TSR's April Forecast has been issued and their numbers are: 17/9/4.
| Nateball |
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| Tue Apr 03 2007 05:22 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I very much look forward to learning some new things from everyone this season as I already have over the last 2. My early numbers this year would be 15/7/3
| Bee-Beep |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Apr 04 2007 06:18 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I was waiting for Dr.Gray/Mr Klotzbach judgement on what they think the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season would look like so I could make a judgement of my own. Well, they are going with 17 named storms / 9 hurricanes / 5 Intense Hurricanes. I will somewhat agree with their "forecast" stating that it will be an active season.
Im going with those numbers 16/8/4 for this season. Cy'all soon.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Apr 18 2007 06:29 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I'm going to be way high again this year.
TD/TS/HU/MH
24/22/11/06
Tropical Depressions: 24
Tropical Storms: 22
Hurricanes: 11
Major Hurricanes: 6
Right now, my logic is simple:
Above average Sea Tempratures
better Atmospheric conditions
Of course when i keep adding things up by month, I keep getting to 19 by the end of november, but 22 named storms was my gut instinct so I'm sticking with it.
There won't be an El Nino to shut the season down like last time, so yeah, we're going to have late season fish spinners... really... you believe me, right?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Apr 19 2007 01:17 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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11/5/2
Now off to get a lottery ticket
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Apr 22 2007 01:12 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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15/8/3 - Thats what came up on the Roulette Wheel, I disregarded the red and black.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Apr 25 2007 08:09 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I certainly, in my very amature way, do not think we are going to get away easily this year. We are dry, and getting dryer. May not make sense, but I go with my gut.
18/7/4
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Apr 25 2007 09:09 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I hope your wrong. After 2005 I need a 10 year break. The drought though is a sign of La Nina. The last strong La Nina most storms did turn away. It all depends on where the Bermuda High parks itself this year and I'm hoping way out.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Apr 26 2007 04:33 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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As I mentioned in the leadoff article, "Please limit your posts in this thread to your own forecasts and reasoning (if any) for the 2007 season.", but I'm going to leave this thread open until May 31st for those of you that still might like to try your luck with a forecast for the season's activity.
Cheers,
ED
| Valandil |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Apr 26 2007 07:35 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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As a long time reader and first time poster, I'd also like to give it a shot:
16/9/4
My reasoning is as described above by others ... La Nina and currently high running SST
Vala
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Apr 26 2007 02:54 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Iam going with 16/9/5...
Overall with Neutral conditions look like the maybe around this season i look for a more favorable enviroment to be in place during this season.Currently parts of the atlantic are running somewhat below normal shear wise for this time of the year.Also SST'S are also running above normal in areas like the bahamas and the MDR region.A few other factors are also involved which iam not going to get into but the most important issue is what will the longwave pattern be this summer?The atmosphere is constantly changing and trying to predict were the bermuda high will park itself this season is not possbile as its hard to predict 2 weeks out.Its all about trofs and ridges with tropical systems.
In the coming weeks the pieces of the puzzle will be coming together which will tell us how the meat of the season might look like.Adrian
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Apr 27 2007 04:04 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Here's mine for this year 13/7/4
Hoping for another quiet year, though. Going to start ramping the site back up in May!
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Apr 29 2007 03:48 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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17 named, 10 hurricanes, 4 major (2 cat 5s)
4 US landfalls
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Apr 30 2007 01:15 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Going With 16/9/6 this year
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Mon Apr 30 2007 05:08 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I'll be watching for Tanya this year.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Apr 30 2007 07:42 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I'll chime in with 19/9/6
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Apr 30 2007 08:13 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I was going to say 15 but decided to up it to 16. I think we have a shot at Pablo. Not very high confidence wise but either it's a busy season or it's not and the water is hot from what I have read and seen. Where they go? Don't know and tempted to call a lot of recurvature type storms in which case we could have a lot of majors but safely out at sea.
Very hard to call this far out. Dust kicks up usually this time of year but whether it stays there or not will be the teller if we have long trackers. I'd say a lot of storms forming around 50-55. A lot of Caribbean storms.
If the high builds in strong we could have lower storms that get further into the Gulf, it's been a while since the Western Gulf had to really worry.
One consistent thing you do see from the analog years in Dr. Gray's report 52, 64, 66, 95 and 2003 is that Florida got hit from the backside as some storm recurved on the SW side of the bermuda high. 2003 is hard to add in there but the west coast was affected by a storm cutting across the state as well. 2003 was a little bizarre and hardest to see a pattern. But... is compelling when you look at the charts from those years to see such patterns.. as well as a lot of dancing out at sea but Atlantic Canes.
So... I'll go with 16 7 and 4
Thanks for letting me join in and read all of your thoughts.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 01 2007 08:46 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Don't like that idea of yours for recurving storms up the W coast of Fla. Those are the storms that have the greatest potential for disaster in the Tampa/St Pete area and we have been darn lucky for the past 50 years or so (since Donna). Charley and Wilma both came from the back side and we DON"T need a repeat of either of those. Heck, my parents just got their house rebuilt about 12 months ago after Charley tore it all up......let's just hope you are wrong there, although it is just a matter of time for TB/StP.
It's a bit late for my 2 cents, but let me go on the high side...lots of energy out there and VERY hot already with little cloud cover, so we may get high SSTs this summer.....19 - 8 - 4
That an $2.50 will get you coffee at Starbucks
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu May 03 2007 01:47 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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No, its not too late to submit your forecast for the season - I'm going to keep this thread open until May 31st. However, please limit your posts in this thread to your forecast and your rationale for the forecast (if any). This makes it easier for HanKFranK and I to tally the results at the end of the season to see who came up with the best forecasts.
Cheers,
ED
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 04 2007 11:19 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Okay,
I think that I may be a little too relaxed on this year , but I am going with 15/5/3..
A little higher that I thought before, but still hoping for a repeat of 2006!!!
Take care everyone!!
Christine
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun May 06 2007 04:41 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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14/8/4 Going to play to the middle this year--that's how I see it happening. Not the 1980s middle, mind you... that's '95-on material. I'll just toss in May 8th as a first storm date, since we'll have this pesky hybrid-looking system thumping the southeast coast this week. Think the landfall emphasis this go around will be early-mid September on the Carolina coastline. That's not me wishing something into the neighborhood, just an educated guess based on La nina-type years.
plains getting hammered again this evening...
HF 0535z06may
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon May 07 2007 12:54 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I am going to take an optimistic 14/6/3. I have finally stopped flinching from that last Florida bout!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 09 2007 04:17 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I can't remember if I put in a forecast early in the winter or not, but alas...here's my official "pulling numbers out of a hat" forecast. I've been asked if I'm going to do a full forecast and the answer is no, largely because seasonal (long-range) stuff isn't my forte. I much prefer and am better at the short-term stuff!
That said, I'm thinking we will see a season with activity similar to 2004 but without quite the landfall focus in just one area. In fact, 2004's numbers look good to me: 15/9/5.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu May 10 2007 12:55 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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I'm probably going to hate myself for this, but with the unanticipated arrival of Andrea, and since your first forecast is normally your best one, I'm going to go back to my original forecast of 14 named storms, i.e., 14/7/3 for the season. Since it is not yet May 31st, feel free to adjust your 'numbers' if the mood strikes you!
Cheers,
ED
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu May 10 2007 01:18 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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....Will go with the following...
19 named storms
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
WW-911
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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2007 Prediction
This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:
1. The weak to moderate El Niño event that rapidly developed during August to October 2006 has now dissipated. Most of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral or cool ENSO conditions are likely for this upcoming summer/fall. The observed cooling during this time period in 2006-2007 is the strongest cooling on record.
2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2006 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, the conditions appear to reflect more conditions of the two very active seasons of 2004-2005.
Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.
No. of Hurricanes 10
No. of Named Storms 19
No. of Hurricane Days 37
No. of Named Storm Days 89
Intense Hurricanes 5
Intense Hurricane Days 13
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 194
| Psyber |
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| Wed May 16 2007 02:04 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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14/6/3
Even though the sst's are warm, la nina is going to disrupt things and I just can't see a major explosion over the 06' numbers. Florida is dry as heck, and my corns aren't bothering me. It's going to be a weak one
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 17 2007 03:43 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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Cyclones including TDs & STDs: 18
Named storms: 15
Hurricanes: 9
Major: 5
Let's see how badly I choke this year!
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu May 17 2007 03:48 AM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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As I mentioned above.."However, please limit your posts in this thread to your forecast and your rationale for the forecast (if any). " In this particular thread please don't question someone else's rationale.
ED
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Fri May 18 2007 07:58 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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including subtropical type storms, 16/7/4
Jeff
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue May 22 2007 10:08 PM |
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Re: The 2007 Outlook
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You know, everyone has their forecast set one or two deviations from the guy above them. Since we are all pulling these pretty much out of our hats, I will amend my forecast to something more drastic:
20/10/7
later