Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jan 24 2009 07:24 PM |
Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Its time to start our annual assessment of anticipated tropical cyclone activity for the 2009 season in the Atlantic basin. Last year 43 site users offered their guesstimates for 2008 tropical cyclone activity - a record high level of participation. The 2008 season ended with 16 named storms of which 8 were hurricanes and 5 of those were major hurricanes (Cat III or stronger) and Mr Corkdork800 hit the totals right on the nose - nice job! Cieldumort (16/8/4) and HanKFranK (15/8/5) were only one off of the total numbers while FtLaudBob (17/9/5), Storm Hobbiest (16/7/4) and Hootie Hoo (15/8/4) were two off on the total numbers - all excellent forecasts! CSU and TSR were also at -2; both with forecasts of 15/8/4.
For the upcoming 2009 season, CSU and TSR are again equal in their outlooks - both are again forecasting an active season of 15/8/4 - and having no real disagreement with their logic, my forecast is similar at 14/8/4. With a weakening La Nina next spring expected to become ENSO neutral during the 2009 season, it looks like activity should remain above average. While the far western Atlantic is expected to be slightly cooler than normal, it is worth noting that the western Atlantic was also slightly cooler than normal during the 2008 season.
Initial best analog seasons appear to be 1990 and 2001 for SSTs and 1996 for pattern. I'll update this thread again in early April, but we'll keep it open until the 2009 season starts on June 1st. Here is your chance to take your own guess at the numbers for 2009. You can update them as you wish until the season starts and remember that forecast rational is not required, but please limit your responses to your actual forecasts and rationale (if any) - it makes it easier at the end of the season to compile the results and see who did well.
Cheers,
ED
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jan 30 2009 08:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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I propose a less active season:
13/6/3
| GlenJohnson |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Feb 02 2009 06:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Things have been a bit to odd. I'm gonna have to bump it up a bit to 15/9/6. Hope I'm wrong, but the weather has just been to squirrely. Just a beginner's hunch.
| GoBigSurf |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Feb 08 2009 01:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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OK, I'm going with 13/8/3. Hope all are enjoying the peace!
| enterlaughing |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Feb 11 2009 02:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Let's see.......things have been rather dull and dry........I'm going with 14/5/3
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Feb 27 2009 12:07 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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14-7-4
I hope everyone has had a great offseason thus far.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Mar 02 2009 06:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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I`m going with 13-7-3
| LisaC |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Mar 02 2009 11:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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We (South Florida) have had a cool winter. Its been a great chance of pace. Just this morning while walking the dogs in 48 degree weather I was asking myself, what does this mean for hurricane season.
I say
15/7/3
Stay warm until then!
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Mar 05 2009 04:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Let's see a weak La Nina in place that may very well go neutral or transition to Nino late in the season, so I am going with fewer storms and it could be a busy front end of season and an early end to the season. Enjoy the cool off season.
So I say
12/6/2
lowest number so far I think...we shall see
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Mar 05 2009 06:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Hurricane Season 2009 12/6/4
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Mar 06 2009 12:09 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Quote:
We (South Florida) have had a cool winter. Its been a great chance of pace. Just this morning while walking the dogs in 48 degree weather I was asking myself, what does this mean for hurricane season.
I say
15/7/3
Stay warm until then!
The other odd thing is that we've had virtually no rain here since November. Not sure what that means for hurricane season, but ... 16/7/4.
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Mar 22 2009 02:09 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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14/7/5
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Mar 23 2009 10:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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One could hope that there would be a year with no US landfalls, but then I feel selfish because odds are someone else will be dealing with it. So maybe this year, whatever comes our way, let them all be cat1 and 2, or a nice tamish tropical system to raise the water table.
12/6/4
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Mar 26 2009 09:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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I still have no reason to think we're not in a hyperactive pattern.
17/10/5 with 2 Tropical Depressions
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Mar 31 2009 02:33 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Can you give us another update on the 09 season ED?
Thanks
(Please use the PM capability for personal requests and responses - only post seasonal forecasts in this thread.)
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Apr 05 2009 08:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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The ENSO forecast remains unchanged with Neutral to slightly above normal SST conditions expected in the tropical eastern Pacific, but the Atlantic outlook has changed with slightly below normal SST conditions expected for the entire hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Given the massive amount of Sahara dust currently blowing off of western Africa and extending all the way to northeastern South America, the cooler than normal SST forecast may well be justified.
1989 and 1996 now seem to be the best analog years. With ENSO Neutral conditions and a cooler tropical Atlantic, I've lowered my forecast for the season to 12/7/3 - a normal to just slightly above normal season. If the western African area remains dry and dusty into June, there would be a better probability for even lower numbers rather than higher ones.This thread will remain open though May 31st so that you can post your own forecasts and/or revisions.
TSR issues their Atlantic basin forecast on 4/6/09 and CSU follows with their forecast on 4/7/09.
Cheers,
ED
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Apr 06 2009 11:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Tropical Storm Risk today calling for what looks like an average season in 2009...15/8/4
Average since about 1995.
I'll also go with 15/8/4 for my numbers.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Apr 07 2009 03:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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CSU's Forecast (issued today) calls for 12/6/2 - with similar considerations of expected ENSO conditions and lower SSTs in the tropical Atlantic.
Cheers,
ED
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Apr 19 2009 12:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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I'll go with 11/5/3 for this early.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Apr 25 2009 01:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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On a limb.
9/7/2
| JAH |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Apr 27 2009 08:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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I've got to go with Doombot with 9/7/2 because of the El Nino and African Dust should hold down the formations.
| Valandil |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Apr 29 2009 08:11 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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13/6/3
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Apr 29 2009 07:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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14/8/4
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Apr 30 2009 01:03 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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just like the nfl draft, everything is a crapshoot until the season gets underway and things constantly change. i will say 16/7/3 for the heck of it and there are no reasons as to why anyone would know of possible trends for the upcoming season. all bets are off! in all seriousness, welcome to another season and hopefully everyone is ready and we don't see a catastrophe.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 06 2009 02:47 AM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Hurricane Season 2009 15/9/5
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 22 2009 11:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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I'm guessing 14/7/5.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri May 29 2009 01:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Time to rethink the 2009 Outlook (again). There are increasing indications that at least a moderate El Nino will develop in the Pacific during June and July and continue for the remainder of the season. That, coupled with a continued cool tropical Atlantic through September suggest that an active season is no longer likely, and I've lowered my seasonal expectation to 10/6/3 (and it wouldn't surprise me if the actual numbers are even lower if the El Nino event becomes stronger). Analog years are 1965 and 1951.
A reminder that this thread will remain open through May, so you still have a couple of days to make your own forecast for the season or revise a previously made forecast.
Cheers,
ED
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 29 2009 02:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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OK - - the Darts say - - 13/8/4
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri May 29 2009 11:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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I'm going for 11/6/2
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun May 31 2009 10:34 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Wouldn't I love to take another three months to toss my best guesses in. This season looks particularly vulnerable to several competing influences, of which there appear to be no clear dominant players at this point. I'm going with 11-5-2, and this is extremely low confidence, whereas last year at this time I was jubilant about my guesses. In this "active era" I almost can't believe I am going with such relatively low numbers, but the best writing on the wall seems to point that way - this month, anyway -
I have to add that the potential for a much more active Atlantic season seems about as likely as the potential for an even less active season. While a few numbers lower than 11, 5 & 2 would not be all that low climatologically-speaking, over the course of post-1994 era, anything under 11+5+2 would still be on the surprisingly low end.
As an aside, the real potential for the development of a solid El Niño during the heart of the season could not only shut off the Atlantic just about entirely, but really ramp up the strength and numbers in the central and eastern Pacific. The last time we saw a solid El Niño during the post 1994 era, 2002, the central+east pac birthed a very impressive 15 names, 8 of which became hurricanes, of which 6 became major hurricanes including a whopping 3 Cat 5s.
Prior to that stunner, 1997 also saw a very active central+east pac within the post-1994 era: 19 names, 9 hurricanes, and 7 majors!
1997 cooked up Hurricane Linda. With an estimated pressure of 902 mb, Linda was the most intense central-east pac hurricane on record.
Fast on the heels of Linda, Nora formed, and went on to become the first eastern pacific tropical cyclone to bring sustained tropical storm-force winds at the surface to the continental US since 1976. At the higher elevations of mountains in Utah, Nora's remnant circulation even sheared the tops off of hundreds of large trees in the Dixie National Forest.
Nora entering Arizona Sept 25, 1997
Hurricane Nora Storm Report
Prepared by the Flood Control District of Maricopa County, Az.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Jun 01 2009 04:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
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Thanks to all that participated in this years annual seasonal prediction exercise. The average for the 26 forecasts is 13/7/4. The lowest forecasts for the season were 9/7/2 and the highest was 17/10/5.
The thread is now closed, but we'll check it out at season's end and see how well we did.
Cheers,
ED