Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Sep 01 2010 02:36 PM |
Area of Interest - Ex-Gaston
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At 01/15Z, Invest 98L was upgraded to TD 9. The Tropical Depression was located at 12.3N 35.2W at 01/12Z - about 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles - moving west at 15 knots with sustained winds of 30 knots and a pressure of 1006MB. Conditions are favorable for slow development and the cyclone could become a Tropical Storm on Thursday as it continues to move toward the west. The next name on the list this year is Gaston.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Sep 02 2010 09:48 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 9
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In the past 30 hours, TD9 became TS Gaston became TD Gaston and finally was designated as a remnant low at 02/21Z. The low is currently fighting dry air that eliminated most of the convection and shear from a trough to its northwest that disrupted its organization. The system is expected to move generally westward and its possible that the system could regenerate in a few days when conditions more favorable for development are encountered.
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Sep 04 2010 01:47 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Ex-Gaston
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At 04/12Z, ex-TD Gaston (Invest 09L) was located at 16.3N 45.6W moving west to west northwest at 13 knots. Good convective signature sheared slightly to the west with sustained winds again at 30 knots, so I'd anticipate ex- Gaston regaining Tropical Depression status today (Saturday).
An elongated upper level low is located ahead of the system near Puerto Rico, but the low is moving to the southwest. With some southerly shear ahead of the system, conditions would favor a slow intensification process, yet SHIPS intensifies the redeveloping cyclone to a hurricane by Tuesday and even to major hurricane status by Thursday - probably a bit too aggressive. Some of the longer range projections take the cyclone just to the south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola while others suggest a track just to the north. Given the movement of the ULL and the ridge expected to rebuild to the north its going to be a tight call - the Leewards, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic are likely to end up in the eventual cone of this redeveloping system.
ED