Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 03 2012 01:29 PM |
Area of Interest - Florence
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An active wave with a large convective envelope and a cyclonic circulation has moved off the west African coast. At 03/12Z Invest 90L was located near 11.5N 24.5W and was moving west southwest at 15 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 15knots and central pressure is estimated at 1006MB. Northeast windshear should limit development for about 24 hours with a good chance for intensification over the weekend. SST is about 27-28C. Movement should become westerly and eventually westnorthwesterly at about 12 knots. The next name on the list for this season is Florence.
ED
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 04 2012 02:51 AM |
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Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 6
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Invest 90L is now Tropical Depression 6 as of 11pm - NHC.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 12:04 AM |
Re: Area of Interest - Florence
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Tropical Storm Florence has some interesting challenges ahead. The system is rather well organized and some slight intensification is possible over the next couple of days. The Atlantic high pressure ridge is expected to build and dig to the south - roughly along 50W. Florence will encounter increasing west southwesterly shear late Monday into Tuesday and will encounter slightly cooler SSTs (27-27.5C) especially on Tuesday. With increasing windshear aloft and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures any additional intensification should stop by Tuesday (perhaps even Monday) so the likelyhood of reaching hurricane status is slim at best. IF Florence can survive the shear, and because of the building high pressure to the north of the system, a weaker Florence would likely take a more westerly or even west southwesterly track Tuesday afternoon.
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 06:03 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Florence
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Yeah, oddly I was thinking the same thing... a lot of IFS but IF Florence stays weak, stays together, stays over cooler water and continues west... there is a stronger chance that she won't be a fish storm.
Also, new models show odd loops, dips and bends in her track... which would correlate well with the many IFS down the road mentioned here.
If she survives and she most likely will...she will be with us for some time to come.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Aug 05 2012 01:24 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Florence
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Morning satellite imagery indicate that cloud tops have warmed and Florence seems to be a lot weaker. Forward motion over the past few hours has been due west. With such a hostile environment ahead, Florence could become an open wave within 24 hours.
ED