| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 07 2012 05:17 AM |
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Area of Concern: Tropical Storm Helene
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A healthy tropical wave with an associated surface low pressure has been tagged as Invest 92L.
As of 12:30 AM EDT 8/7/2012, Invest 92L is located roughly 250 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands, moving westward at about 15 MPH.
92L follows on the heels of another unusually early Cape Verde feature, Invest 90L, which went on to become Tropical Storm Florence.
Unlike 90L/Florence, Invest 92L is running along at a slightly lower latitude. For comparison:
04/0000 UTC 13.3N 27.0W T1.5/1.5 90L
06/2345 UTC 11.2N 27.0W T1.0/1.0 92L
Considering that 92L is developing at a slower pace than 90L/Florence by this longitude, that it is located slightly deeper south with high pressure solid as a brick wall to its north, odds strongly favor 92L getting further west than north over the next 3 to 5 days.
As for intensity, 92L is presently in an environment marginally conducive for gradual strengthening, and which is the most likely scenario over the next 24-48 hours. SSTs in this region are running a warm 28C, shear is a light to moderate 10-20 knots, and has actually been easing, 92L's forward speed is not ripping at its internals the way we have recently seen with Ernesto, and excessively dry air is mostly to its north.
As long as 92L stays south of roughly 14N, it stands a much better chance of gradually developing and making it farther west. Should it have a burst of development, and veer poleward, it could very well encounter much the same fate as (X) Florence, which is now a struggling remnant tropical low.
In summary, given 92L's present position, likely track, and environment, it is increasingly possible that this feature becomes yet another extremely early Atlantic tropical cyclone. (NHC has recently given it a 20% chance of developing within the next 48 hours, which could be conservative).
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Aug 09 2012 04:19 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 92L
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At 09/00Z Invest 92L was located at 14.5N 38.6W and was moving west to west southwest. Since that time the structure of the system has improved considerably and NHC issued a special Tropical Weather Outlook to increase the chances for the Invest to become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours or less to 70 percent. There is a short window of time of about 24 to 30 hours for intensification - after that, increasing westerly windshear on Friday would hinder further development. The system should take a more westerly course than Florence did and could bring inclement weather to the Leeward Islands by late Saturday. The next name on the list this season is Gordon.
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 09 2012 08:12 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 92L
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Why is this not a problem?
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hiatlsat_None_anim.gif
Florence blows up...or what's left of Florence and Invest 92 despite having an 80% chance of becoming a named storm cannot seem to maintain convection.
Are the models missing something?
Also, wave off of Africa looks better than 92...
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 17 2012 07:26 AM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 7
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As of early morning August 17, former Tropical Depression 7 is now back over open water, in the southern Bay of Campeche, with lowest pressures and greatest vorticity seemingly located around 20N 95W as of 3 AM EDT.
xTD7 may only have a limited window of opportunity to become a tropical depression again should it slide back inland over the next 12-48 hours into southeastern Mexico; however, it is possible that the disturbance lingers just offshore.
| weatherhead |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 17 2012 12:15 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 7
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GFS has been showing something happening here for at least a week. The GFS has been fairly spot on this year.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 17 2012 09:03 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 7
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At about 4:30 PM EDT this afternoon, Aug 17, recon found strong evidence of a closing or already closed center with maximum sustained winds at the surface of at least 40 MPH (with the on board SFMR actually suggesting about 48 MPH). Tropical Storm force winds are so far only noted within a very small radius, and Seven is a small cyclone.
Seven is very close to the shore, presently about 20.5N 96W, and advisories on Tropical Storm Helene could be initiated within short order. Given Seven's forward speed and trajectory, it is now looking more possible that it skirts the shore, or moves just inland, and then may have about even odds of reemerging over the far western Gulf of Mexico by the end of this weekend.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 17 2012 09:34 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Helene
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Ciel has been keeping up with TD 7 , now TS Helene.
NHC has upgraded the system to Tropical Storm status and Tropical Storm Warnings are flying from Barra de Nautla to La Cruz,Mexico on the NE Mexican Coast.
Helene is moving NW at 7 mph and minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 17 2012 11:10 PM |
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Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Helene
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Looks like the second fix from recon is NNE of the first one...still not very impressive on SAT. This might be the center reforming but it buys some more time over water