Ed Dunham
|
|
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
|
|
Sun Sep 02 2012 08:36 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Area of Interest - Hurricane Michael in the Central Atlantic
|
|
At 02/20Z, Invest 99L was located near 26N 40W and was moving to the southwest at 14 knots. The weak low pressure center (1015mb) is well defined in the low levels and appears to be a reflection of what was formerly a small but more robust upper level system. Sporadic weak convection is displaced to the east of the center and north to northwest shear will inhibit development in the near term. SSTs are at 28C.
ED
(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)
|
|
MichaelA
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Sun Sep 02 2012 10:47 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
|
|
There is a lot of shear directly to its west. Unless it can drop below (South) of that shear while maintaining a low level signature, I don't think it will develop.
|
|
MichaelA
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Tue Sep 04 2012 12:06 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - TD 13 in the Central Atlantic
|
|
It's now TD13, since the shear that was to its west has relaxed allowing some convection to persist near the center. It's a very small system and not in the best of environments, but NHC is predicting that it will become a minimal TS before more shear sets in.
|
|
MichaelA
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Wed Sep 05 2012 01:07 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - TD 13 in the Central Atlantic
|
|
Well, Michael is looking rather good this evening. It appears to be getting vertically stacked as the shear in the area continues to relax.
|
|
MichaelA
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Wed Sep 05 2012 06:32 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - TD 13 in the Central Atlantic
|
|
It appears that Michael has a brief window of opportunity to become a minimal hurricane later today or this evening just before more shear begins to affect it as the upper level trough that bypassed Leslie is now approaching Michael.
The 5PM AST discussion indicates that NHC believes that the trough will also bypass Michael with minimal impact on the system which will allow Michael to intensify once the trough axis has passed.
|
|
JoshuaK
|
|
(Weather Guru)
|
|
Thu Sep 06 2012 09:10 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - TD 13 in the Central Atlantic
|
|
Well Michael blew up overnight. First Major Hurricane of the season.
|
|
MichaelA
|
|
(Weather Analyst)
|
|
Thu Sep 06 2012 12:59 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Area of Interest - Hurricane Michael in the Central Atlantic
|
|
Just saw that. Wow! Just getting up and about and going to check all the hurricane resources that I normally peruse. It's those tiny systems that never cease to amaze.
EDIT: None of the 00Z and 06Z model runs have Michael initialized as the strong system that it has become, so will have to wait for the 12Z runs for a better hint at what may become of it. One thing I do notice is that, being such a tight and compact (and strong) storm, Michael's outflow is beginning to impact the trough to his north rather than the trough impacting Michael this morning.
|