Mon May 01 2023 07:38 AM
2023 Season Number guesses

12-4-2 for me this year

12 Tropical Storms
4 Hurricanes
2 Majors

(Storm Tracker)
Tue May 02 2023 09:14 AM
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses

This year I'm going with 13-6-2 Plenty of time to get ready and prepare. After last years smack on Floridas west coast I think it's really a good idea. The season will be here before you know it. Good luck to all.

(Weather Analyst)
Sat May 13 2023 08:03 AM
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses

My WAG is 12-3-1

(Storm Tracker)
Fri May 26 2023 09:53 AM
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses

15 TS
7 H
3 M

Have a gut feeling that the still recovering central and south Florida peninsula will be in the crosshairs (of what is forecast to be an "average" season) once again.

(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat May 27 2023 10:09 AM
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses


(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue May 30 2023 09:57 PM
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses


Guessing more storms than a usual El Niño year but less potent.

Wed May 31 2023 09:51 PM
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses

Greetings and good luck with the contest!

This year the downstream impacts of a forecast El Niño, if verified, may compete with a tendency for otherwise neutral to possibly very favorable conditions in the Atlantic and make a much larger than normal range of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts. In fact, a strong El Niño could easily bust all forecasts that are presently average to above average, while ENSO nuetral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña present), could allow for a banger of a season.

There's even a real possibility of an El Niño that does not result in the usual downstream windshear, and the UKMET office, which uses a robust "ensemble prediction system based on a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM)" is calling for just that, with 14-26 Storms, of which 8-14 become Hurricanes, of which 3-7 become Major Hurricanes, with an ACE of 222 despite El Niño! (LINK)

My once again slightly updated method I've toyed with over the years comes in at
TC/STCs: 15 (Likely range of 10-20)
Storms (AKA Names): 13 (Likely range of 8-18)
Hurricanes: 6 (Likely range of 4-8)
Majors: 3 (Likely range of 2-4)

This forecast for total number of "Storms" includes the already unnamed, pre-season Subtropical Storm that NHC found during re-assessment and made public on May 11: NHC Determines That a Subtropical Storm Formed in the Atlantic Basin in Mid-January 2023

Despite my best guess of an "about average" number of of total storms, hurricanes and majors, I see an average to above-average risk of US landfalls. And as always, "it only takes one."

2023 Forecast: 13 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 3 Majors

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 01 2023 02:23 PM
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses

Hope it's not too late to get my guesses in. Although looking active early with El Nino coming on I am going with.
Named Storms: 17 (mostly because any breath of strong wind seems to get named these days)
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 2
Looking forward to the discussions this season!

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