Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 01:03 PM |
Area of Interest - Southern Bahamas
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Area of convection and general cyclonic curvature near 24N 72W, or just north of the southern Bahamas, has good potential for further development over the next couple of days. Westerly shear just north of the area is forecast to abate (but not totally) by Sunday evening. Area of development expected to remain pretty much stationary over the weekend. Keep an eye out for slow pressure falls in the southern Bahamas.
Postscript: East Atlantic wave near 20W still having some trouble getting organized - even if it does (and it might), it will encounter some increasing westerly shear in a couple of days. Atlantic pattern continues to be disruptive.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Sep 08 2002 02:26 PM |
TD 8 Initialized
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Subtropical Depression #8 was initialized at 28.1N 70.3W at 12Z, however, the system does have multiple centers of rotation and the primary center appears to be close to 28N 72.3W. Models intensify the cyclone to Hurricane strength in 48 hours and move the storm off to the northeast. For the moment the system appears to be stationary - perhaps even a slight westward drift. This system certainly has the potential to become the first hurricane of the season. As a side note, this season has started with 6 straight Tropical Storms - and thats the first time this has been recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Cheers,
ED
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 09 2002 12:46 AM |
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Re: TD 8 Initialized
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uh oh ed.. thats your seven. damage control from here on. with 12-8-4 i'm playing the same game.
HF 0043z09september
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Sep 09 2002 03:41 AM |
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Re: TD 8 Initialized
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Right you are, but no damage control. You either hit em or you miss em - probably no different for your 8 and 4. Actually, I'm getting this uneasy feeling that the Gulf might do something in a few days.
Cheers,
ED